On June 29, the Shanghai International Shipping Research Center released a report on China's shipping boom in the second quarter of 2022.
The report shows that in the second quarter of 2022, China's shipping climate index was 105.74 points, down 6.5 points from the previous quarter, falling into a slightly prosperous range, while China's shipping confidence index was 128.43 points, down 7.33 points from the previous quarter. Although the China Shipping Prosperity Index is still on the business dividing line, the dry bulk Shipping Prosperity Index has fallen below the Prosperity dividing Line, and the Port Enterprise Prosperity Index is also approaching the Prosperity Boundary.
Looking to the future, Zhou Dequan, director of the China Shipping Prosperity Index compilation Office, told the Securities Times e Company that the global economy is facing greater downside risks, and the peak of the global shipping market is also coming to an end. Under this background, although there are positive factors such as the resumption of work and production after the epidemic in the third quarter and the traditional peak shipping season, there is greater pressure on Chinese shipping companies to rebound in prosperity. According to the China Shipping Prosperity Survey, the China Shipping Prosperity Index is expected to be 115.07 points in the third quarter of 2022, up only 9.33 points from the current quarter, entering a relatively prosperous range, while the China Shipping confidence Index is expected to be 129.42 points, up only 0.99 points over the current quarter. maintain in a relatively prosperous range.
Shipping enterprises fall to the range of relative prosperity
Looking back at this report, shipping enterprises. In the second quarter of 2022, the prosperity index of shipping enterprises was 107.04 points, down 8.46 points from the previous quarter to a slightly prosperous range, while the confidence index of shipping enterprises was 129.86 points, down 15.09 points from the previous quarter, but remained in a relatively prosperous range. Entrepreneurs are confident about the future and optimistic about the market. Shipping enterprises' capacity investment has increased, freight income has increased, and the enterprise is still in a profitable state, but the utilization rate of space has declined, and the operating cost of the enterprise has continued to increase; the loan debt of the enterprise has decreased, and the demand for labor has increased; the shipowners' willingness to invest in capacity continues, the liquidity is very abundant, it is relatively easy for enterprises to finance, and the ability of enterprises to resist risks has further increased.
Dry bulk transport enterprises are the first to fall into the depression range. In the second quarter of 2022, the prosperity index of dry bulk transport enterprises was 99.97 points, down 10.67 points from the previous quarter, and the first to fall into a weak recession range; the confidence index of dry bulk transport enterprises was 128.33 points, down 47.17 points from the previous quarter to a more prosperous range. The overall performance of dry bulk transport enterprises is poor, but entrepreneurs are still full of confidence in market operation. From the perspective of various operating indicators, the capacity of dry bulk transport enterprises has decreased, the ship turnover rate has dropped significantly, and operating costs have increased significantly. Although freight income continues to rise, the industry as a whole has changed from profit to loss; although enterprise loan liabilities have been reduced, liquidity is abundant, enterprise financing is relatively easy, and labor demand continues to increase, but the willingness of enterprises to invest in transport capacity has been greatly reduced.
The prosperity index of container transport enterprises rebounded slightly. In the second quarter of 2022, the prosperity index of container transport enterprises was 120.81 points, rebounding slightly from the previous quarter to a more prosperous range, while the business confidence index was 146.67 points, down 9.0 points from the previous quarter. The overall operation of container transport enterprises is good, and entrepreneurs still have sufficient confidence in the overall development of the industry. From the perspective of various operating indicators, although the transport capacity of container transport enterprises has decreased and operating costs have still risen sharply, the utilization rate of enterprise space has increased, freight income has continued to rise, and corporate profits have continued to improve. From the slightly depressed range to the more prosperous range. At the same time, the liquidity of enterprises is very abundant, the difficulty of financing is relatively low, loan liabilities continue to decrease, the willingness of enterprises to invest in capacity has increased significantly, and the demand for labor has also increased significantly.
The port prosperity index falls into the range of micro-prosperity.
The report also points out that the prosperity index of China's port enterprises has fallen into the range of slight prosperity. In the second quarter of 2022, the prosperity index of China's port enterprises was 105.38 points, a sharp drop of 14.17 points from the previous quarter to a slight boom range, while the port enterprise confidence index was 119.38 points, down 8.62 points from the previous quarter. from a relatively prosperous range to a relatively prosperous range. The overall operating condition of the port enterprises is generally good, and the port entrepreneurs are confident and optimistic about the overall operation of the industry. From the perspective of various operating indicators, although the utilization rate of port berths has increased slightly, and corporate profits are still good, the port throughput has declined, port charges have been reduced, and operating costs continue to rise. The liquidity of port enterprises is still relatively abundant, the difficulty of financing continues to be reduced, the assets and liabilities of enterprises continue to decrease, while the labor demand of port enterprises increases, and investment in new berths and machinery also increases compared with the previous quarter.
The prosperity index of shipping service enterprises maintained a slight boom range. The data show that in the second quarter of 2022, the sentiment index of shipping service enterprises was 104.36 points, up 3.78 points from the previous quarter and maintaining a slight prosperity range, while the confidence index of shipping service enterprises was 135.58 points, up 4.31 points from the previous quarter and maintained in a relatively prosperous range. The overall operation of shipping service enterprises is good, and entrepreneurs still have sufficient confidence in the development of the industry. From the perspective of various operating indicators, although the operating costs of shipping service enterprises are still high and business bookings have decreased, the volume of business has increased, the price of business charges has increased, and the profit situation of enterprises has continued to improve; and the liquidity of enterprises has increased, the difficulty of financing has been alleviated, the willingness of enterprises to invest in fixed assets has increased, the demand for labor has also increased, and the arrears of goods have decreased.
Nearly half of the respondents believe that market freight rates will continue to rise in the second half of the year.
Looking back to the first half of 2022, under the influence of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the epidemic situation of COVID-19, the freight rates of each market segment fluctuated to varying degrees. The China Shipping Prosperity Index compilation Room of Shanghai International Shipping Research Center conducted a survey on the views of shipping enterprises on the trend of market freight rates in the second half of 2022.
The survey results show that nearly half of the shipping enterprises believe that the market freight rate will continue to rise in the second half of the year. 12.5% of them think that freight rates will rise by more than 50% in the second half of the year, and 9.56% of enterprises think that freight rates will rise by 30%, 50%, 29.41%, 29.41%, 29.41%, 29.41%, 29.41%, 29.41%, 29.41%, 29.41%, 29.41%, 29.41%, 29.41%, 29.41%, 29.41%, 29.41%, 29.41%, 29.41%, 29.41%, 29.41%, 29.41%, 29.41%, 29.41%, 29.41%, 29.41%, 29.41%, 29.41%, 29.41%, 29.41%, 29.41%, 29.41%, 29.41%, 29.41%, 29.41%, Among the container transport enterprises surveyed, 55% of the container transport enterprises said that the freight rate level would continue to rise in the second half of the year. Among them, 20% thought that the freight rate would rise 30%, 50%, 35%, 35% said that the freight rate would rise by about 10% and 30%, while 35% said that the freight rate level in the second half of the year would fluctuate within the upper and lower 10%. Among the dry bulk transport enterprises surveyed, 58.82% of the dry bulk transport enterprises said that the freight rate level would continue to rise in the second half of the year. 5.88% of the enterprises thought that the freight rate would rise by 30%, 50% and 52.94%, while 26.47% said that the freight level would fluctuate steadily in the second half of the year, and the freight rate would change within 10%.
Although shipping entrepreneurs generally have high hopes for the second half of the year, Zhou Dequan, director of the China Shipping Prosperity Index compilation Office, pointed out that the global economy is facing greater downside risks. The leading index of China's shipping boom has seen a downward inflection point since March last year, and the peak of the global shipping market is nearing the end. Under the downward pressure of this cycle, although there is a resumption of work and production after the epidemic in the third quarter. The traditional shipping season and other positive factors, but the rebound of the prosperity of Chinese shipping companies is under great pressure. According to the China Shipping Prosperity Survey, the China Shipping Prosperity Index is expected to be 115.07 points in the third quarter of 2022, up only 9.33 points from the current quarter, entering a relatively prosperous range, while the China Shipping confidence Index is expected to be 129.42 points, up only 0.99 points over the current quarter. maintain in a relatively prosperous range. After the release of the expected wave of shipments is more difficult to meet expectations, China's shipping industry rebounded slightly.
In addition, the China Shipping Prosperity Index compilation Room of the Shanghai International Shipping Research Center also conducted a relevant investigation on the impact of the epidemic outbreak on the production and operation of the shipping industry in the first half of the year. The survey results show that more than 30% of shipping companies say it is still difficult for crew to change shifts under the influence of the epidemic. Among the shipping enterprises surveyed, 35.43% said it was still difficult for their crew to change shifts due to the outbreak; 21.52% said it was difficult for staff to move because of the outbreak; 14.8% said that their business volume had dropped sharply because of the epidemic; and 13% said that the port was congested because of the epidemic, resulting in a backlog of goods. Another 12.11% of the enterprises said that they were affected by the epidemic, resulting in greater difficulties in order fulfillment and renewal. Among the port enterprises surveyed, 41.18% of the port enterprises said that they were under excessive pressure on epidemic prevention due to the impact of the epidemic.