Main points of investment
We have recently followed Guoxin Securities and we believe that positive changes are taking place in the fundamentals of the company.
The change of corporate governance structure is expected to realize business growth. The shareholding ratio of the state-owned shareholders of the company is more than 80%, which has both the policy support brought by the background of the state-owned shareholders and the operational vitality brought by the market-oriented operation mechanism.
It has a unique location competitive advantage in the construction. Senior executives come from government, regulatory and business lines, forming a relatively comprehensive governance structure, which is expected to open a new growth cycle of the company: chairman Zhang Nasha has served in listed companies, asset operation companies, Shenzhen SASAC and Longhua District Government. President Deng Jie has served in the merger and acquisition reorganization Committee of the Securities Regulatory Commission and the Supervision Department of listed companies. Among the vice presidents of the company, Chen Chuanli, who is in charge of investment banks, was born in the securities supervision system, du Haijiang, who was in charge of brokerage, was born in Guoxin brokerage business, and Cheng Fei, who was in charge of self-owned unveiling week and capital management, was the vice president of the company's global recruitment. He came from foreign investment bank and domestic first-line asset management business respectively. The person in charge of the company's compliance, risk control, finance and other lines all have rich experience in the securities industry, and the government background, regulatory background and professional background of the management can support the steady development of the company's business compliance.
Guoxin Securities has good business ability and customer reserve. From the basic market point of view, Guoxin Securities has an obvious competitive advantage in brokerage business and investment banking business. among them, the brokerage business made Guoxin Securities realize the primitive accumulation of retail customers through the Yinzheng Tong customer diversion and highly authorized quasi-entrepreneur model, and the company's net income ranking of brokerage business remained at 4-6 during the period from 2016 to 2021. In terms of investment banks, the company seized the opportunity of small and medium-sized board and gem to form a leading edge. The ranking center of net underwriting income of stocks and bonds of investment banks in 2016-2021 was in the range of 6-10 and 6-12 respectively. Retail customers and enterprise customers are the most important basic stocks of securities firms, and Guoxin Securities has formed a good customer base. In recent years, the investment business has grown into a new profit pillar, the investment in research has also made remarkable progress, and the business capacity has been comprehensively improved, which is expected to start a new development process under the leadership of the new management.
Innovation ability is the driving force for the company to stand out in the future. Guoxin Securities has a strong innovation gene, strong foresight and market sensitivity in operation, and is good at grasping market opportunities quickly, grasping the transformation of traditional superior business on the one hand and the development of innovative business on the other. Brokerage business connects the service chains of wealth management, asset management and investment banking to realize "full value chain wealth management"; investment banking business seizes the historical opportunity of the registration system to be rolled out in a comprehensive and orderly manner, and improves the business operation mode. in-depth exploration of the value of emerging industries and small and medium-sized enterprises At the same time, we will actively distribute the general dealer business of credit release tools, promote the development of foreign exchange settlement and sale business, cross-border business, precious metal proprietary business, and primary dealers of over-the-counter options, and constantly explore new ways to use the balance sheet. it is expected to open up new profit margins.
Profit forecast: the company's net profit from 2022 to 2023 is expected to be 78.28 yuan and 9.332 billion yuan, respectively, compared with the same period last year. The PB corresponding to the closing price on June 30, 2022 is 1.09% and 0.98 times respectively, covering for the first time and giving prudent overweight rating.
Risk hint: the risk of large fluctuations in the capital market, stock pledge and bond investment credit risk.
