Food storeChief analyst of industryYu JiaqiFood and Beverage viewpoints:The liquidity of high-end products is double-click, and the expectation is poor in popular products.

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Catering industry chain: showing a concussive upward situation

On the whole, the industries related to beer, seasoning, lo mei and catering may rebound more under the promotion of policies and emotions, but we still have some differences on the catering industry chain in the second half of the year. we also think that from Shenzhen and other data, we may not be able to return to a very prosperous state.

We believe that the emotional side is positive, the fundamentals are neutral, and the emotional side will walk ahead of the fundamentals. Some of these sectors are not expected to be high, including some marginal improvements in revenue and costs, and some companies also have problems with a low base. We think that the emotional side of the pan-catering industry chain will walk ahead of the fundamentals and have a relatively good industry performance as a whole.

Target: beer is recommended to buy$Tsingtao Brewery (00168.HK) $、$China Resources Beer (00291.HK) $、$Budweiser Brewing Company APAC Limited (01876.HK) $。

Zhao Zhongping, Chief analyst of Light IndustryLight industry plate viewPoint: born in the sun to meet the double-click of Davis before and after the newspaper

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1) Home:Each round of excess earnings in the sector comes from extremely pessimistic real estate beta expectations, revised overlay leading companies operating Alpha exceeding expectations. Learn from Japan, the real estate downward cycle, decoration demand is still stable, Japanese household leader should benefit through the cycle, the domestic leading share is still low and promising.

The slope and speed of home plate repair are weaker than 18 years and 20 years, and the duration is longer than the end of 18 years, close to 20 years. Considering that the real estate has entered the stock downward cycle and the industry beta is weakening in the initial stage, we believe that if the real estate expectation gradually picks up in the future, the leading valuation may return to 25-30x, and the second-tier valuation may return to 18-20x.

3) New tobacco:The penetration rate of new tobacco in China is still low, which is much lower than that in mature markets such as Britain and the United States. under the background of tobacco control and harm reduction, the industrial logic certainty of the improvement of new tobacco penetration is relatively strong, as we said in our annual strategy in 2022. After the continuous landing of regulatory policies at home and abroad and the gradual release of uncertain risks, the pricing power of the industry's long-term growth on the sector will be gradually highlighted.

Subject matter: furniture section suggests attention.$Man Wah (01999.HK) $、$Imperial Home (01198.HK) $，The new type of tobacco is recommended to buy$Smoore International Holdings Limited (06969.HK) $、$Huabao International (00336.HK) $。

Chief of retail industryAnalystDing ZechuanRetail sector viewpoint:618 as a whole slightly more thanIt is expected to actively distribute e-commerce and local life leaders.

First, 618 comprehensive e-commerce growth slowed down, live e-commerce rose strongly.Affected by the epidemic in March 2022, express logistics has been blocked, consumer demand is relatively weak, the epidemic has alleviated since the end of May, logistics has gradually recovered, a number of policies to promote consumption and relief have been promulgated, and consumer demand has been repaired, laying a certain foundation for 618.

According to star map data, the total transaction volume of the whole network during the 618 promotion period in 2022 was 695.9 billion yuan, an increase of 8.2% over the same period last year.

Live streaming e-commerce continued to enjoy a high boom, with strong growth during the June 18 period, with sales of 144.5 billion yuan, an increase of 124.1% over the same period last year, far exceeding the growth rate of the market; in terms of market pattern, Douyin Kuaishou Technology jumped to the top two. The popularity of Douyin Oriental selection of live streaming rooms shows that live streaming e-commerce has a certain explosive power to create incremental demand and improve transaction transformation.

In addition, the new retail platform benefited from express logistics, with sales of 22.4 billion yuan, an increase of 26%, while sales of community group buying reached 15.3 billion yuan, an increase of 15.4%.

Second, from a sub-platform point of view, this year, 618 platforms increased concessions and simplified activity rules, so as to stimulate purchase demand, and the three major platforms achieved positive year-on-year growth during the 618 period.The cumulative amount of orders issued by JD.com exceeded 379.3 billion yuan, an increase of 10.3% over the same period last year, with a growth rate of 10.3% over the same period last year. JD.com 's hourly purchase order users increased by more than 400% compared with the same period last year, and Tmall's sales volume achieved steady and positive growth. as the preferred position for brand promotion, it attracted many merchants to participate in the promotion, with a total of more than 260000 brands participating in the promotion. Pinduoduo 618 exceeded expectations in beauty makeup, home appliances and daily chemical products, all doubling in year-on-year growth.

Third, in terms of categories, the top three categories of 618 sales this year are home appliances, beauty and outdoor sports respectively; in terms of category growth, the growth of necessities under the influence of the epidemic is stronger than that of optional consumer goods.Among the popular categories, cleaning and convenient fast food had the highest growth rate, up 34% and 27.5% respectively over the same period last year. In addition, the post-epidemic era has also created new opportunities for sports outdoors, pets and other tracks.

Home appliances increased by 6.7% year-on-year, performing well, mainly due to strong subsidies from platforms and local governments, and the concentrated release of consumer demand for large optional consumer goods during the epidemic.

On the other hand, optional categories such as clothing and makeup were relatively weak, with sales of beauty and skin care and perfume makeup down 18.9% and 22.1% respectively compared with the same period last year. From the advantage category of each platform, Tmall still occupies the main advantage in the partial marketing category such as beauty makeup and snack food, while JD.com occupies a higher market share in the category of traditional offline department stores such as home appliances and daily chemical. Recent policy regulation margin is good, while 618 consumption is slightly better than expected, policy and fundamentals at the same time upward, e-commerce Internet companies ushered in a good opportunity for layout.

The first one is obviously undervalued.$Pinduoduo (PDD.US) $Recommend those with high growth rate and strong barriers$Meituan-W (03690.HK) $$, JD.com Group-SW (09618.HK) $Pay attention to$BABA-SW (09988.HK) $。

Liu Li, Chief analyst of Textile and Garment IndustryTextile and clothing point of view: recovery is expected to strengthen, sports shoes and clothing leader takes the lead

Since June, the retail flow of head sneaker brands has become regular, the inventory-to-sales ratio is in the normal range, there is no significant discount, and the overall recovery momentum is higher than expected.

Recommended: brand end

$Xtep International (01368.HK) $：The main brand Xtep locates the popular movement, focuses on the core categories of running, competes with competitors, gains momentum through adjustment from 2015 to 2017, and is driven by accelerated iteration of product functions, channel upgrading and dual-track marketing after 2017. the influence of the brand has increased significantly.

In 2019, through joint ventures and mergers and acquisitions, it is expected to combine Xtep's extensive sales network, Soconi and Mailer's product technology, and the design level of Gesway and Paladin to achieve coordinated development.It is expected to achieve double improvement in performance and management quality in the next three years. Maintain the "highly recommended" rating.

$Li Ning Co. Ltd. (02331.HK) $：The high base factor weakens, and Q3 retail flow is expected to resume growth. The "Li Ning Co. Ltd." brand represents the great spirit of the national movement, while the continuous breakthrough in product power and out-of-circle marketing continues to push up the brand premium, realizing the brand upgrading from the masses to the middle and high end, and breaking the single-brand ceiling. The previous relatively weak channels and supply chain operation system have been systematically upgraded after the new CEO took office, and the shortcomings provide solid support for the sustainable growth of performance.

We are optimistic about the overall rise of Li Ning Co. Ltd., which is expected to accelerate the increase of market share and seize the market of Adidas or other foreign brands in the next 3-5 years. Maintain the "highly recommended" rating.

Manufacturing side: recommended$Shenzhou International Group (02313.HK) $。

Pharmaceutical industrySenior researcherWang YiyingPharmaceutical sector view: economic recovery embraces consumer health care

The medical demand was temporarily suppressed during the epidemic. With the full liberalization of medical institutions, the number of outpatients is expected to return to the previous level as soon as possible, and the recovery of hospital outpatients and the economy will lead to the recovery of medical consumption.It is recommended to pay attention to the CXO plate$Tigermed (03347.HK) $、$Wuxi Biologics (02269.HK) $、$Wuxi Apptec (02359.HK) $。

Li Xiumin, senior analyst in social service industrySocial service industry point of view:The epidemic situation slows down and gradually recovers across provinces, paying attention to summer travel opportunities.

Recently, the ninth edition of COVID-19 Prevention and Control Plan has been released, and there are several policy changes. One is that immigration and close contact isolation has been changed to 7-day centralized isolation + 3-day home health monitoring. On April 18, some cities have piloted 10-7, so this year the whole isolation plan is from 14-7 to 10-7 and then to 7-7.This time the change is relatively large, and then the second secret from 7 days of centralized isolation to 7 days of home isolation, do not rule out the next version will continue to be reduced.

The second is to unify the standards for the closure and control area and the medium-and high-risk area. In principle, the high-risk area is delimited by the case residential area (village). No new infection in the high-risk area has been reduced to a stroke risk area for 7 consecutive days, and no new infection in the stroke risk area has been reduced to a low-risk area for 3 consecutive days. In other areas, centralized isolation medical observation measures have been taken for people with a history of living in high-risk areas in the past 7 days.

The stroke risk area refers to the work and activity areas where cases and asymptomatic infections stay and activities for a certain period of time, and may have the risk of epidemic transmission, and no new infections have been reduced to low-risk areas for 7 consecutive days. In other areas, 7-day home medical observation measures were taken for people with a history of living in medium-risk areas in the past 7 days.

Low-risk areas refer to other areas in the counties (cities, districts, banners) where the medium and high risk areas are located. People in other areas with a history of living in low-risk areas in the past 7 days are required to complete two nucleic acid tests within 3 days. The third is the nucleic acid detection scheme according to different population size. The government uses a relatively clear plan to determine inter-provincial quarantine restrictions under the O'Micron epidemic, which provides a relatively stable plan for economic activity.

The whole catering and tourism sector has been improved by the domestic epidemic situation, and the inter-provincial travel restrictions have been gradually lifted.The expected release of demand for summer business and leisure travel and the relaxation of epidemic prevention policies have risen for several days since Friday, and the last exchange also recommended cross-provincial hotels, tax-free, scenic spots and travel agencies.

In that position, the valuation of the sector is no longer cheap. It will rise and then fall later because of emotional inertia. From July to August, more data are needed to verify. The data performance is relatively good. Relatively speaking, it can continue to rise after the pullback. Relatively speaking, we think that in the absence of an epidemic, the summer data will be better for hotels, Hainan tax-free, OTA and some long-distance travel destinations.

Because of the Spring Festival, Ching Ming Festival, May Day Golden week and other holidays in the first half of the year, most parent-child families choose conservative short-distance trips, and the backlog of long-distance travel demand breaks out in the summer vacation. Sanya, Urumqi, Chengdu and Harbin are all hot cities.

First, the hotel plate:It recovered by more than 60% in May and estimated at about 80% in June, but it has not yet fully recovered, because the supply of domestic hotels has decreased by 25% and 30% compared with 2019, so the same-store flexibility of hotels is very large. according to neutral expectations, Jinjiang will be 1.8 billion next year, and the first tour will be 1 billion next year.$Huazhu Group Limited-S (01179.HK) $24亿，Corresponding to the current market capitalization is 37 times, it is not cheap, if you want to continue to rise, you must need the data of July-August to support, and then pay attention to the data of summer vacation. Basically, you have to recover more than 90% in July, and there will be growth in August compared with the same period in 2019 before you have the motivation to continue to rise.

Second, the travel agency section:I recommend you to follow the OTA section.$same trip (00780.HK) $Today$Trip.com-S (09961.HK) $It has gone up a lot, and the domestic business of the same trip is purely domestic, mainly air tickets, train tickets and hotel bookings in low-tier cities. The promotion rate of tourism lines in low-line cities is only 20%, and there is still a lot of room for 50% and 60% of first-tier cities.

After the epidemic, the trend of perimeter travel and retail has risen, and the penetration of online travel has increased rapidly. Cheng Yilong has the continuous introduction of low-cost traffic from Tencent, with 277 million monthly active users. As well as the resource support of Trip.com 's supply-side products and services, it is expected to quickly infiltrate and sink the market.

In the month when there was no epidemic in 2021, the company's hotel volume grew by 70% per cent in 2019, and the sinking market grew by 10 per cent faster than Meituan.