Zhitong Financial APP learned that CICC released a research report that Musk recently announced on his official Weibo Corp that Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) humanoid robot will soon be launched, which has aroused widespread concern in the capital market about the robot's core component-reducer. It is widely used in metallurgy, construction machinery, shipping and other general industries or robots and other special fields.The compound growth rate is expected to be 4-5% in the next five years. The market size of general speed reducers is 50 billion yuan in 2021, and domestic enterprises have made a high-end breakthrough.With the mature development of process technology and the verification of industry chainThe bank believes that the next three years forward-looking layout of production capacity, the expansion of high-end areas of the reducer companies to enjoy the growth dividend.
The main points of CICC are as follows:
High-end upgrade superimposed resumption of production, reducer racetrack boom rebound is expected.
Reducers are widely used in metallurgy, construction machinery, ships and other general industries or robots and other special fields. Before the Eleventh five-year Plan, China's reducer industry was mainly produced by small and medium-sized general cycloidal reducers, and so far it has blossomed in general reducers, special reducers and other aspects. the low-and middle-end reducers have entered a mature stage, and high-end products continue to develop. According to the forecast of the forward-looking Industrial Research Institute, China's overall reducer market will reach 125.8 billion yuan in 2021, + 5% year-on-year, and the bank expects a compound growth rate of 4-5% in the next five years. The bank believes that medium-term high-end upgrading industry policy frequent, short-term 22Q3 industry demand is expected to rebound.
In 2021, the market size of general reducer is 50 billion yuan, and the high-end of domestic enterprises has broken through.
In 21 years, the market size of China's general reducer is about 50 billion yuan, foreign investors such as SEW and FLENDER occupy high-end customers, the middle market is represented by Guomao shares and Kone Technology, and the low-end market has a long tail distribution. The bank believes that in the general reducer industry, modular design and lean production build barriers, and the market concentration continues to improve. The bank believes that domestic leaders are expected to open up growth space through industrial chain integration and cross-industry extension.
In 2025, the domestic robot RV reducer market is nearly 4 billion yuan, entering the key node.
The bank estimates that the domestic demand for RV reducers for robots in 2025 is 79-1.04 million units, and the market capacity in neutral situations is 4 billion yuan. Applications such as machine tools and industrial automation equipment still exist. According to MIR data, the localization rate of China's RV reducer has always been less than 30%, and Japan's Nabo and Sumitomo accounted for 60% by 2021. In 2021, double-ring transmission, Qinchuan machine tools both cross the break-even point, production capacity racing enclosure and head customer penetration accelerated, the bank believes that the industry ushered in a key node.
The brand of domestic harmonic reducer has emerged, and the industry may enter the stage of accelerated competition.
The bank estimates that the market size of harmonic reducer for industrial robots in 2025 is about 2.8 billion yuan, and the total market size can be nearly 4 billion yuan by superimposing application scenarios such as cooperative robots and machine tools. The brand of harmonic reducer in our country is "one super and many strong". Green harmonic has realized the domestic replacement of harmonic reducer on a large scale, and the market share of domestic industrial robot brand is nearly 60%, and the market share of cooperative robot is even higher. In addition, in the past two years, manufacturers such as Fu Harmonic and large family transmission have emerged one after another, the supply chain choice of robot ontology enterprises has become more and more diverse, and the industry may enter the stage of accelerated competition.
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