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外盘头条:消费者支出下降,机构纷纷下调美经济展望

External Market Headlines: Consumer Spending Has Decreased, and Institutions Are Adjusting Economic Prospects

新浪財經 ·  Jul 1, 2022 07:09

Source: Sina Finance

The global financial media last night and this morningThe main headlines of common concern are:

1. The decline in consumer spending has stimulated Wall Street's sensitive nerves, and forecasters have downgraded the outlook for the US economy.

2. The 10-year yield on US debt falls below 3%, and traders are expected to cut interest rates next year.

3. Russian Ministry of Agriculture: Russia will temporarily restrict the export of amino acid feed and rice from July 1.

4. The first African-American female Supreme Court justice is sworn in.

5. The Supreme Court of the United States ruled to restrict the climate power of the EPA, which dealt a new blow to Biden.

6. Russian oil production jumped to its highest level since March, but it is still lower than the pre-conflict level between Russia and Ukraine.

The decline in consumer spending has spurred Wall Street sensitive neuroforecasters to downgrade the outlook for the US economy.

Consumer spending is weak, expectations are low, manufacturing is weak. A series of data showed that the foundation of the US economy was increasingly shaky, and institutions downgraded their growth forecasts.

In particular, inflation-adjusted personal spending fell in May for the first time this year, and the increases in the previous four months were revised downwards, suggesting weaker-than-expected demand earlier this year. Home sales and manufacturing surveys also show that things are not good.

Weak consumer spending, which contributes the most to US gross domestic product, has worsened the already dimmed outlook. The deterioration in expectations has prompted some optimists to be cautious earlier this week. Economists Morgan Stanley now expect GDP to grow at an annualised rate of 0.3% in the second quarter, well below the 2% forecast a few days ago.

On Thursday, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model's GPD forecast for the second quarter plummeted to 1%, up from 0.3% earlier this week.

Data released on Wednesday showed that the economy fell at an annualised rate of 1.6% in the first three months of this year, lower than the previous figure, as consumer spending was sharply revised down.

The 10-year yield on US Treasuries falls below 3%, and traders are expected to cut interest rates next year.

Treasury yields fell sharply as bond investors increasingly believed that the Fed's rate hike would plunge the economy into recession as consumer spending and inflation indicators rose less than expected.

Five-year earnings led the decline, falling more than 10 basis points to nearly 3.03 per cent. The yield on the 10-year note fell 9.3 basis points at one point, falling below 3 per cent for the first time since June 10.

The bond market began a new rally after Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said the risk of raising interest rates to the economy is not as important as restoring price stability. Traders continue to expect interest rates to rise by 75 basis points in July, while swap contracts linked to the Fed's policy session show that interest rates will peak at nearly 3.5 per cent in March 2023 and then fall to about 3 per cent by the end of the year.

Ian Lyngen, head of US interest rate strategy at BMO Capital Markets, said that given the possibility of attracting money into the bond market at the end of the month, "We remain bullish on US Treasuries because the market forecasts a possible slowdown in economic growth and they are increasingly confident that the Fed will be able to contain inflation".

Implied inflation expectations and nominal yields have been falling steadily over the past three weeks. Of these, the five-year forward forecast for five-year inflation expectations fell back to about 2.1 per cent in February, down from 2.6 per cent in April. The Fed aims for an average inflation rate of 2%.

Russian Ministry of Agriculture: Russia will temporarily restrict the export of amino acid feed and rice from July 1.

From July 1 to December 31, Russia will temporarily restrict the export of amino acid feed and rice, the Russian Ministry of Agriculture said in a statement on June 30, local time.

The Russian Ministry of Agriculture said that the purpose of the decision is to ensure food security in Russia, to ensure the price stability of these products in Russia and to support the Russian animal husbandry and processing industries.

The first African-American woman to be sworn in as a Supreme Court justice

Ketangi Brown Jackson (Ketanji Brown Jackson) was sworn in as U.S. Supreme Court Justice at noon local time, replacing former U.S. Supreme Court Liberal Justice Stephen Breyer.

Jackson was the first African-American woman to serve on the Supreme Court. Born in 1970, Jackson is relatively young for Supreme Court justices and is expected to serve on the Supreme Court for decades. Jackson was formally nominated as a justice of the U.S. Supreme Court by President Joe Biden on February 25, local time, and was approved by the Senate on April 7.

According to a statement issued by the White House, Jackson has a wealth of experience in the legal profession. Her professional resume includes a federal appeals court judge, a federal district court judge, a member of the United States sentencing Commission, a lawyer in private practice and a federal public defender.

The U.S. Supreme Court ruled to limit the climate power of the Environmental Protection Agency, dealing a new blow to Biden.

The deeply divided U.S. Supreme Court has ruled to limit the power of the National Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to curb greenhouse gas emissions from power plants, along with coal mining companies and Republican-led states to deal a blow to President Joe Biden's climate change agenda.

The Supreme Court ruled 6-3 on the judicial interpretation of the Clean Air Act, which could prevent the government from implementing the kind of broad emissions reduction plan that EPA tried to pursue when Obama was president. The move limits the tools available to the agency at a time of growing evidence that climate change is causing sea levels to rise and more extreme weather patterns. The ruling is likely to have wide-ranging implications and affect other regulators.

The ruling raises new doubts about Biden's ability to meet his emissions reduction commitments. Biden promised to halve US emissions by 2030 and build a carbon-free grid by 2035. According to several analyses, this cannot be achieved without regulations to curb greenhouse gases from oil wells, cars and power plants, as well as tax breaks designed to stimulate clean energy.

Russian oil production jumped to its highest level since March, but still below the pre-conflict level between Russia and Ukraine

Russian oil producers this month boosted production to its highest level since March, according to calculations based on CDU-TEK data from the Russian Ministry of Energy.

The average daily output in the first 29 days of June was 10.71 million barrels, 4.7 per cent higher than in May, but still below the level before the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

"We believe that we will ensure that production recovers in the summer," said Alexander Novak, the deputy prime minister.

As one of the world's three largest oil producers, oil observers around the world are closely watching Russian production trends. After the outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, disruptions in the energy industry triggered by initial sanctions against Russia led to a 50 per cent rise in crude oil prices this year, rising inflation and threatening a global recession.

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