Investors' fear of recession risk intensified. Japanese and American stocks fell about 1% at the end of June, led by large technology stocks, the S & P Dow had its worst quarter since the epidemic, and the S & P fell 21% in the first half of the year, the worst since 1970. The NASDAQ 100 index fell 30% in the first half of the year to its worst annual performance in history. Chinese stocks performed brightly, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China index rising more than 12 per cent in the second quarter to its best since the end of 2020 and rising for two months for the first time in 11 years. European stocks had their worst first-half performance since 2008. Us and European Treasury yields fell sharply in double digits on Thursday, with long-term US bond yields falling to a three-week low and 10-year Treasury yields falling below 3 per cent at one point. International oil prices fell more than $4 in intraday trading, while US natural gas tumbled 16% to a three-month low, with oil prices falling for the first time since November last year. The dollar fell 105 on Thursday, with interest rate hikes expected to make it its best quarter since 2016, and Bitcoin's worst quarter fell nearly 60% in more than a decade. Gold forced $1800 to basically give up its gains for the year, worried about demand. London Metal fell on Thursday and fell more than 20 per cent across the board in the quarter.
Inflation data in Europe and the United States continue to explode. The Fed's most concerned indicator of inflation, the PCE personal consumption expenditure price index, showed signs of peaking in May, but remained at a 40-year high and, more worryingly, inflation began to erode consumer spending as a pillar of the economy. France's CPI rose 6.5 per cent in May from a year earlier, setting an all-time high for the second month in a row, and eurozone CPI in June, announced on Friday, could also reach a record 8.5 per cent.
First-time US jobless claims fell slightly last week, but higher than expected, as the Chicago purchasing managers' index, a measure of local business activity, fell to 56 in June, weaker than expected at 58 and 60.3, both highlighting the overall recent cooling trend in US economic data.
Us President Joe Biden said he would ask the Gulf Cooperation Council to increase oil production during his visit to Saudi Arabia next month. The OPEC+, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, approved a small excess oil production plan in August, but refused to discuss decisions after September. Worried that the recession will lead to a sharp fall in energy commodity prices, international oil prices fell by more than 4% on the last trading day of the first half of the year, and natural gas in the United States plummeted by 10%.
S & P welcomed its worst first half since 1970, followed by the Dow's worst quarter, with the NASDAQ Golden Dragon China index up 12% in a single quarter.
Thursday, June 30th is the closing day for June, the second quarter and the entire first half of the year. Us stocks opened sharply lower and fell about 1%, while the Dow opened down 240 points. At the beginning of the session, major industries ETF fell generally, the global aviation industry ETF fell more than 3%, and the Internet stock index and banking ETF fell more than 2%.
In the first 10 minutes of trading, US stocks fell rapidly, with the Nasdaq down more than 2%, while the Dow and S & P were both down about 1.7%. In the first half hour of trading, the U. S. stock index collectively hit a session low. The S & P market fell 2.1 per cent and lost 3700 points at one point, with optional consumer sectors down more than 3 per cent, communications, technology, finance and raw materials sectors down at least 2.4 per cent, and utilities barely maintaining an increase of about 0.2 per cent. The Dow fell nearly 600points or 1.9%, lost 31000 points, the Nasdaq fell nearly 330points or 2.9%, once lost 11000 points, the Nasdaq fell 335 points or 2.9%, and the Russell 2000 small-cap index of most valuable stocks fell 2.3%. At one point, it lost 1700 points.
Before midday, the decline in US stocks narrowed sharply, Russell small-cap stocks took the lead to rise slightly, the S & P market briefly rose, the Dow narrowed to 130 points or 0.4%, and the Nasdaq narrowed to nearly 60 points or 0.5%. The decline in US stocks widened again in the afternoon and finally closed down collectively:
The Standard & Poor's 500 index fell 33.45 points, or 0.88%, to 3785.38. The Dow fell nearly 254 points, or 0.82%, to 30775.43. The Nasdaq fell nearly 150 points, or 1.33%, to 11028.74. The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.3%, and small-cap stocks fell 0.7%. S & P 11 sectors fell, energy fell by more than 2%, communications, optional consumption, information technology, raw materials and finance fell by more than 1%, the industrial sector rose slightly, and the defensive utilities sector rose more than 1%.
Major indexes of US stocks changed throughout the day on Thursday.
Throughout June, the S & P market was down 8.4%, the Dow was down 6.7%, and the Nasdaq was down 8.7%. Throughout the second quarter, the S & P fell 16.4%, the Dow 11.3%, and the Nasdaq 22.4%. S & P and the Dow had their worst quarterly performance since the first quarter of 2020, and the Nasdaq had its worst quarterly performance since 2008. In the first half of the year, the S & P fell 20.6%, the Dow 15.3% and the Nasdaq 29.5%. Among them, the S & P had its worst first half in more than 50 years since 1970, and the Nasdaq 100 fell 30%, making it the worst annual performance on record.
First-half performance of major indexes of US stocks
At present, the S & P 500 is still in a technical bear market, down more than 21% from its peak in early January. Nasdaq, Nasdaq 100 and Russell small-cap stocks are in a bear market, down nearly 32%, more than 31% and more than 30% from 52-week highs, respectively. The Dow is down nearly 17% from its 52-week high. Since the beginning of this year, only the energy sector has accumulated, with non-essential consumer goods at the bottom of all sectors.
The performance of the S & P market in the first half of the year, only the energy rose and outperformed.
Large technology stocks generally fell:
Yuan Universe's Meta closed down 1.6% after falling more than 3%, while Amazon.Com Inc closed down 2.5% after falling nearly 6%, giving up its gains since June 17. Apple Inc closed down nearly 2% after falling nearly 4%, and Microsoft Corp closed down more than 1% after falling nearly 3%, all to an one-week low. The Alphabet of Netflix Inc, Tesla, Inc. and Alphabet Inc-CL C's parent company closed down about 2% after falling more than 4%, both of which fell for four consecutive days to the lowest since June 21.
Tesla, Inc. fell 37.5% in the second quarter, the worst single-quarter performance since the company's US IPO, while Amazon.Com Inc fell nearly 35% in the second quarter, the largest one-quarter decline since 2001. Netflix Inc has fallen 71% so far this year, while Apple Inc and Alphabet have fallen more than 23%.
Chip stocks all fell. The Philadelphia semiconductor index rose at midday after falling 2.7%, closing down more than 1% for four consecutive days to a two-week low. Intel Corp rose slightly after falling 1.5%, rebounding the lowest since June 17. AMD closed down 2% after falling more than 3%, and NVIDIA Corp closed down 2.5% after falling more than 4%, both falling for four consecutive days to the lowest level in 13 months since May 2021.
Other stocks with significant changes include:
Investors are concerned about the EU carbon tax, while US steel and metal companies with exposure to the European market fell. The S & P super composite steel index fell nearly 4 per cent, with all 14 stocks falling, with US Steel and Cleveland-Cliffs falling more than 5 per cent and Alcoa down 7 per cent.
Morgan Stanley halved the target price for carnival cruise ships and hinted that it could be reduced to zero, dragging down cruise travel stocks. Both Carnival Cruises and Royal Caribbean Cruises fell more than 8%, while Norwegian Cruises fell as much as 9%, cutting the closing decline by at least half.
Demand is expected to be poor in the second half of the year. RH, a US high-end furniture chain, plunged more than 10 per cent after issuing a full-year profit warning, household retail stocks fell all the way down, and Wayfair fell by more than 9 per cent. Simon property fell more than 4 per cent at one point to its lowest level since February last year as Jefferies, an investment bank, downgraded it, saying shopping malls would be struggling during the US economic downturn.
Pfizer Inc and BioNTech received another US $3.2 billion COVID-19 vaccine order from the US government. The average purchase price per dose of vaccine rose by more than 50% compared with the agreement two years ago. Pfizer Inc rose 3%, rose more than 8%, and recovered the decline since June 9. At the same time, Pfizer Inc announced that he would submit an application for a new drug against novel coronavirus's therapeutic drug Paxlovid to the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA).
Blockchain concept stocks tumbled as Bitcoin lost $19000 and Ethernet Square fell below $1000. Coinbase, the digital currency exchange, and Silvergate Capital, which plans to expand its bitcoin lending business, fell more than 11 per cent, while MicroStrategy and Marathon Digital, which bet heavily on bitcoin, fell as much as 9 per cent, Riot Blockchain fell more than 8 per cent, and many stocks fell more than 7 per cent.
Uniper, a German energy company, was the worst performer in European stocks, withdrawing its outlook for this year after a sharp drop in supply from Russian gas giant Gazprom, which fell 14% to a five-year low. Adjusted EBIT and first-half net profit are expected to be much lower than last year.
The hot ones probably followed the US stocks lower, but outperformed the market.The NASDAQ Golden Dragon Index performed best in three years:
ETF KWEB closed down 0.6 per cent, falling three days to an one-week low, CQQQ rose slightly, and the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index (HXC) closed down 0.3 per cent. After rising 2.6 per cent in May, it rose 16 per cent in June, the first two-month gain since February 2021. June performance was also the best in three years since early 2019, rising more than 12 per cent in the second quarter, the best single-quarter performance since the end of 2020.
Of the four constituent stocks on the Nasdaq, JD.com fell nearly 1%, Baidu, Inc. fell 1.7%, NetEase, Inc rose nearly 1%, and Pinduoduo fell 2%. Among the other stocks, Alibaba, Tencent ADR and Station B fell 2%, Burning Rock Biotech Ltd. led the Chinese stocks in early trading up nearly 19%, closed up more than 8%, Yatsen rose nearly 11%, tourism stocks rose 26%, JinkoSolar rose nearly 8%, NIO Inc fell 0.6%, XPeng fell more than 1%, Li Auto rose 0.6%. Morgan Stanley is optimistic that NIO Inc. 's product portfolio will make the stock price rebound in the second half of the year.
The pan-European Stoxx 600index closed down 1.50 per cent on Thursday, down for two days and halving its gain in the past week, with all sectors falling, bank stocks down nearly 3 per cent and the ECB requiring eurozone banks to calculate the risk of recession before paying dividends. Major state stocks fell more than 2% in the index, closing down more than 1.5%, the Italian stock index closed down 2.5%, the Russian RTS index fell nearly 5%, and the Moscow Stock Exchange MOEX index fell 7%:
For the whole of June, the Stoxx 600 index fell 8.36%, the euro zone Stoxx 50 index fell 8.82%, Germany's DAX 30 index fell 11.15%, France's CAC 40 index fell 8.4%, the UK FTSE 100 index fell nearly 6%, and Italy's FTSE MIB index fell 13%.
Throughout the second quarter, Stoxx 600s fell 10.67%, the worst performance since the outbreak of Innovation Crown. The Stoxx 50 fell 11.47 per cent, Germany's DAX fell 11.31 per cent, France's CAC fell 11 per cent, the UK's FTSE 100 fell 4.6 per cent and Italy's FTSE MIB fell nearly 15 per cent.
In the first half of this year, Stoxx 600s fell nearly 17%, the worst performance in the same period since 2008. Stoxx 50 and Germany's DAX are down nearly 20%, France's CAC is down 17%, Italy's FTSE MIB is down 22%, and Britain's FTSE, which benefits from the devaluation of sterling, is down 3%.
The analysis pointed out that multiple pressures, such as high inflation, European and American central banks' vows to raise interest rates aggressively, slowing economic growth or even recession, worrying corporate earnings prospects, and unresolved conflicts between Russia and Ukraine, have been suppressing the stock market in the past few months, and caused panic again on the closing day of the first half of the year. Many people predict that the European and American stock markets have not yet bottomed out, and a survey by Wall Street investment banks said that nearly 90% of the respondents believed that there would be a recession in 2023.
The ECB still forecasts solid economic growth in Europe this year and next, but warns that a sudden disruption of natural gas supplies from Russia could drag the eurozone into a deep recession next year, and banks' profitability and asset quality could be adversely affected.
In addition, the MSCI ACWI global index suffered its biggest first-half decline since it was founded in 1990, with global markets experiencing the most volatile start to the year in history. Global stock and bond markets lost a total of $31 trillion in the first half of the year.
Global stock and bond markets lost a total of $31 trillion in the first half of the year.
Yields on European and American government bonds fell in double digits on Thursday, with long-term US bond yields falling to a three-week low and 10-year yields falling below 3% at one point.
Investors' fears of recession risks intensified, with bond yields in major European and American countries falling sharply in double digits, with the 10-year Treasury yield, the borrowing benchmark, falling below the psychological 3 per cent mark for the first time since June 10. Lower-than-expected U. S. inflation data also contributed to a decline in U. S. bond yields, analysts said.
10-year Treasury yields fall below the 3% mark after CPI data are released
The yield on 10-year US bonds fell as low as 2.97%, falling for three consecutive days to a three-week low of 12 basis points. Us stocks fell nearly 7 basis points in after-hours trading, trading 3.03%. The yield on 30-year long bonds fell as deep as 9 basis points, losing 3.12% at one point, giving up its gains since June 10. The two-year yield, which is more sensitive to monetary policy, fell more than 13 basis points, pushing down 2.92 per cent and halving the increase since June 10. Five-year yields fell as much as 15 basis points, pushing down 3 per cent, continuously upside down from the 10-year yield curve, highlighting market anxiety about the possibility of a recession. The yield on two-year Treasuries jumped 220 basis points in the first half and 123 basis points in 30 years.
Treasury yields of all maturity rose sharply in the first half of the year hand in hand.
At one point, 10-year German bond yields fell sharply by 20 basis points from daily highs, and at one point 1.33 per cent of 10-year gilt yields fell more than 15 basis points from daily highs, forcing down 2.21 per cent, giving up their gains over the past three weeks. The yield on 10-year Italian bonds fell nearly 14 basis points from a daily high and at one point fell 3.36 per cent, the lowest since June 6.
The price of 10-year Treasuries, the benchmark of the global lending market and a traditional safe haven, fell more than 13% in the first half of this year, the worst performance since the us constitution was ratified in 1788, according to Deutsche bank. Emerging market debt also fell nearly 20 per cent, the worst first-half record on record. The price of Italian benchmark government bonds tumbled 25 per cent in preparation for the ECB's first rate hike in more than a decade. Some professional investors said that the double killing of stocks and bonds in Europe and the United States is almost a perfect storm, and volatility has reached its peak.
International oil prices fell more than $4 in intraday trading, while natural gas in the United States plunged 16% to a three-month low. Oil prices fell for the first time since November last year.
WTI August crude oil futures closed down $4.02, or 3.67%, at $105.76 a barrel. ICE Brent August crude oil futures closed down $1.45, or 1.25%, at $114.81 a barrel. Inventory growth exceeded expectations, US NYMEX August natural gas futures closed down 16.54% at 5.4240 US dollars per million British thermal units, losing 6 US dollars for the first time since April 5, and continuing to hit a new low for nearly three months. Oil prices recorded their first monthly decline since November last year, analysts said.
Us natural gas fell 16% to a three-month low on Thursday
Us Oil's WTI fell as much as $4.67, or 4.3%, to a daily low of $105. at one point in intraday trading, it fell below the five-digit figure of $110 to $106. it fell for two days and gave up more than half of its gains since Friday. International Brent August futures fell more than $2 or 1.8%, a daily low of $114, a daily low of $4.23 or 3.8%, and a daily low of $108. At one point, it fell below seven integer digits of $116 to $109 in intraday trading. trading at an one-month low since May 19.
International oil prices fell more than $4 in intraday trading on Thursday, collectively losing $110.
The energy slump was mainly due to concerns about sluggish demand caused by the recession, but also due to uncertainty about OPEC+ production after September, analysts said. But with the suspension of oil shipments at two ports in eastern Libya and a decline in Ecuadorian production, further supply disruptions could limit the fall in oil prices. It has been warned that if the G7 sets a price limit on imported Russian oil, oil prices will soar to $200.
Bank of America Corporation calculated that the first half of this year was "the strongest commodity rebound since World War I in 1915", with international oil prices up 50 per cent, natural gas up 60 per cent, wheat and corn up 20 per cent and 30 per cent respectively, adding to global inflationary pressures. Spurred by the shock of Russia and Ukraine and the recovery of demand, oil prices rose the most in the first half of the year since 2009, doubling at the end of the quarter and pushing up to $140.
The dollar fell 105 on Thursday, with interest rate hikes expected to make it its best quarter since 2016, and Bitcoin's worst quarter fell nearly 60% in more than a decade.
A basket of dollar index DXY, which measures the dollar against six major currencies, rose as much as 0.4 per cent to a two-week high on the back of safe-haven demand, while US stocks fell 0.4 per cent in intraday trading and fell below the 105th mark, giving back overnight Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's pledge to fight all inflation gains at all costs. The dollar index rose more than 6% in the second quarter, the best since 2016. In the first half of this year, the dollar index rose 9 per cent, 15.5 per cent against the yen, 20 per cent against the Turkish lira, but fell 40 per cent against the Russian rouble.
The dollar index fell and lost 105 in US stocks on Thursday.
The euro rose 0.4% against the dollar after falling 0.5%, stopping a two-day decline, recovering the 1.04 mark lost in intraday trading, but fell 3% in June, 5% in the second quarter, and nearly 8% in the first half of the year. Rabobank said that as the economic situation in the euro zone and energy supply deteriorated, there would be a risk of parity if the euro against the dollar fell below the key level of strong support of 1.035.
The pound rose 0.5 per cent against the dollar after falling 0.3 per cent, also stopping losses for two days and recovering the lost 1.21 mark, but fell nearly 4 per cent in June and fell 10 per cent in the first half of the year, the worst since 2016. At one point, the yen hit a 24-year low of 137 against the dollar. Us stocks rose 0.7 per cent in intraday trading and broke the 136 mark again, falling nearly 4 per cent in June, more than 11 per cent in the second quarter and nearly 16 per cent in the first half of the year.
In the first half of the year, the dollar index rose 9%, 15.5% against the yen and 40% against the Russian rouble.
The tide of risk appetite receded, and the encrypted digital currency, which is closely linked to the stock market, fell. Bitcoin, the largest leader by market capitalization, fell more than 6 per cent and lost $19000 in integer digits, while Ethernet Square, the second-largest by market capitalization, fell as much as 9 per cent, losing the $1000 mark for the first time since June 19th.
Bitcoin fell nearly 40 per cent in June, its worst monthly performance since it could be traded on an exchange in 2020; it fell about 60 per cent in the second quarter, its worst quarterly performance since a 68 per cent devaluation in the third quarter of 2011; it is down nearly 58 per cent this year and is down more than 70 per cent from a peak of nearly $69000 in November. Yitaifang fell more than 69% in the second quarter, the worst single season in its history since its founding in 2015. Analysts say high inflation, interest rate hikes and recession fears continue to put pressure on digital currencies.
Bitcoin led the encrypted digital currency to plummet in the first half of the year.
Gold forced 1800 US dollars to basically give up its gains for the year, worried about demand. London Metal fell generally on Thursday and fell more than 20 per cent in the quarter.
COMEX gold futures for August closed down $10.20, or 0.56 per cent, at $1807.30 an ounce, the lowest closing price for the most active contract since February, falling in all four trading days this week and down more than 2 per cent in June, on expectations of a radical rate hike by the central bank.
Spot gold fell as much as $15 or 0.8% during the day, forcing a daily low of $1800, falling for four consecutive days to a new low for nearly five months, falling more than 6% in the second quarter, the worst in five quarters, and falling for the third month in a row, basically giving up its first-half gains and returning to the $1800 line at the beginning of the year. But spot gold rose nearly $20 to more than $1820 after the release of US PCE price data in May.
Spot gold pushed 1800 US dollars on Thursday, returning to the level at the beginning of the year.
Recession fears depressed the outlook for demand, and despite the intraday fall in the dollar, London base metals fell generally on Thursday, falling more than 20% in the second quarter:
Copper for LME delivery fell 1.7 per cent, losing two integer digits of $8400 and $8300, approaching the lowest level in 16 months since February 2021 and falling more than 20 per cent in the second quarter, surpassing the record 19.8 per cent decline in the first quarter of 2020 and the biggest quarterly decline since 2011. Deutsche Bank expects Lun Copper to continue to slide to $7000 to $7500 in the third quarter, before rebounding at the end of the year.
Lun Zinc fell more than $200 or 6%, the lowest since December last year, falling 24% in the second quarter; Len Aluminum fell 1%, down 30% in the second quarter; Lunni fell 4.5% or nearly $1100, falling behind the $23000 mark, down 29% in the second quarter; Lunxi fell 1.3%, 20% in the second quarter, and Lunxi fell 1.2% or more than $320 in the second quarter, down 39% in the second quarter. All five metals fell the most in at least a decade.
Edit / Jeffrey