In his life, he experienced 27 bull markets and 26 bear markets in the 20th century. he worked as a professional investor for 68 years and never lost money in a single year."winner of longevity stock speculation in the century". The Newberg-Barman company he founded had $200 billion under management.

In his autobiography, the winner of the Century Stock Market: the autobiography of Roy Newberg, the father of American mutual funds, Newberg summed up the 10 principles of his investment career, which the editor reprinted in full today. Although the original text is a bit long, it is worth reading carefully:

1、Know yourself.

After analyzing a variety of confusing factors, if you can make a favorable decision, then you are the kind of person who is fit to enter the market. Test your temperament and temper:

Do you have a speculative mentality?

Do you feel uneasy about the risks?

You have to answer yourself 100% honestly. When you make a judgment, you should be calm and calm. Calmness does not mean dull. Sometimes a move can be quite quick. Calmness means to make a prudent judgment according to the actual situation. If you prepare well in advance, it will be no problem to make a quick decision.

If you think you are wrong, get out quickly. The stock market does not take as long as real estate to go through the formalities before it can be corrected. You can escape from it at any time.

You need to have more energy, the ability to react quickly to numbers and, more importantly, common sense.

You should be interested in what you do. At first I was interested in this market, not for money, but because I didn't want to lose, I wanted to win.

The success of investors is based on existing knowledge and experience. You'd better invest professionally in areas you are familiar with, and if you know little about the company or don't analyze the company and details at all, you'd better stay away from it.

I don't put my money into overseas investment because I don't know about overseas markets and I have hardly ever traded in foreign securities markets. I mainly invest in China. My international investment is also made through domestic companies. Most of them are global companies, like IBM, which derives half of its profits from overseas.

Before you really become an investor, you should also check whether you are physically and mentally qualified. Good health is the basis of your wise judgment. Don't underestimate it.

2、Learn from successful investors

Even successful investors, many of them had a hard time at the end of the century. I have talked to many of them, and only a small number of them believe that they can keep abreast of the market situation in 1996 when stocks rose again and again.

However, their experiences and lessons are enlightening to us at any time.

Those successful investors lead to success.

• Lowe Price values the growth of emerging industries, thus achieving success.

• Ben Graham respects the basic law of value

• Warren Buffett carefully studied the experience that his teacher Ben Graham taught him when he was studying at Columbia University.

• George Soros applied his ideas to the field of international finance.

• Jimmy Rogers discovered the defense industry stock and told his boss Soros about his ideas and analysis.

Each of them has achieved great success in his own way.

3、"Sheep Market" thinking

You can learn from the experience of successful investors, but don't follow them blindly. Because of your personality, your needs are different from others.You can learn from your successes and failures and choose what suits you and your surroundings.

The impact of individual investors on a stock sometimes causes it to rise and fall by 10 percentage points, but that is only a moment, usually a day, no more than a week. This market is neither bull nor bear. I call such a market "sheep market".

Sometimes the sheep will be killed and sometimes the wool will be cut off. Sometimes you can be lucky to escape and keep the wool. The "sheep market" is somewhat similar to the fashion industry. Fashion masters design new fashion, second-rate designers copy it, and tens of thousands of people chase it, so the skirt is short and long.

Don't underestimate the role of psychology in stocks. People who buy stocks are more nervous than those who sell them, and vice versa. Apart from economic statistics and securities analysis, many factors affect the judgment of buyers and sellers, and a headache can lead to a wrong sale.

In the sheep market, people try to think about what most people will do. They believe that most people will overcome the difficulties and find a favorable solution. It is dangerous to think in this way, and you will miss the opportunity to do so. Imagine that most people are an institutional group, and sometimes they implicate each other and become their own victims.

4、Adhere to long-term thinking

Paying attention to short-term investment is easy to overlook the importance of long-term investment. Enterprises often invest a lot of money in long-term investment, of course, there will be short-term effects at the same time.If the short-term effect is dominant, it will endanger the development and prospects of the company.

Profit should be based on long-term investment, effective management and seizing opportunities.If these are arranged, short-term investment will not be dominant.

When a hot stock is analyzed from a small point of view, it does not finish its task in a quarter, the market panic will cause the stock price to fall.

5、Advance and retreat in time

When can I enter the market and buy stocks? When is the right time to sell stocks and sit on the sidelines?

Timing may not determine everything, but timing can determine many things. It could have been a good long-term investment, but it would be bad if you bought it at the wrong time. Sometimes, if you buy a highly speculative stock at the right time, you can also make money. Good securities analysts can do well without following the trend of the market, but it is easier to operate if they follow the trend.

A speculator or investor often succeeds because he will invest a lot of money to buy when the market is weak, so that he can exchange the same money for more shares. On the contraryInvestors will sell stocks at a high price in a strong market, and although they do not sell many stocks, they can make a lot of money. This principle is very simple.

Taking advantage of the opportunity is partly based on intuition and partly on the contrary. The timing depends on your own independent thinking.In the operation of the economy, the uptrend may occur in the downtrend, and the recession will start at the best part.

What is the importance of intuition? Paul Samuelson, a great economist, is absolutely right that the stock market has "made eight predictions in the past three large-scale recessions". Therefore, momentary intuition is almost as important as the ability to analyze securities.

The timing is delicate and discreet. If you go short at the wrong time (on the rise), it will be expensive. Ask the short sellers of Leighton, Telecom, Levitz Furniture, Montmorrix, etc., who did the right thing but at the wrong time, selling too fast. I know a man who lost everything by shorting at the peak of the bull market in the summer of 1929 and didn't do it again until the fall.

The time of the bull market is generally longer than that of the mayor Xiong. During the bull market, the growth of stock prices is slow and irregular, and may be more irregular than the bear market. Bear markets are short and volatile. But after all, the market has a certain pattern, the stock market rarely rises for more than six months in a row, and seldom falls for more than six months.

In addition, some investors close their positions as soon as they have the opportunity without making any assessment of the current situation after seeing the loss report. Nine times out of ten, stocks sold in this case should actually be bought rather than sold.

In this situation, the first thing people should learn is that the market does not care about individual behavior. It is quite difficult for people to understand the odd theory of price and revaluation, and it is not just amateur investors who fail to recognize it. Many investment advisers believe that long-term investments should be made in utility stocks, but they have held a stock for too long.

I think the stock price has climbed to a high level, whether it is a pension fund for government employees, teachers or others, it should be sold.

Although the share price hasn't reached its peak yet, if you make a profit, you'd better quit.

Bernard Baruch is the best timing investor, and his philosophy is to do well without greed.He never waits for the highest and lowest points. He buys in the weak market and sells in the strong market. He advocates selling early. Our company is very honored. In his old age, he became our customer.

In some times, ordinary stocks are the best investment, but in another period, perhaps the real estate industry is the best. Everything is changing, and people have to learn to change. I have absolutely no belief that there will be an industry that will never change.

6、Carefully analyze the situation of the company

The management, leadership, performance and objectives of the company must be carefully studied, especially the real assets of the company, including the value of equipment and net assets per share. This concept was widely valued at the beginning of the century, but it has been almost forgotten since then.

The company's dividend is also very important and needs to be considered. If its allocation plan is appropriate, its share price can go to a higher level.If the company gives 90% of the profit, note that this is a dangerous signal and will not be shared next time; if the company only gives 10% of the profit, it is also an alarm. The general distribution plan of the company is to share 40% or 60% of the profit. The dividend ratio of the shares of many public utilities will be even larger.

Many investment institutions do not really attach importance to dividends, but individual investors regard dividends as an important way to expand their income.

What are growth stocks? Its clever followers discovered its potential value in the early stages of the company's development. But in general, the company's brand will not be recognized until it is mature. Growth is slow, and individuals and institutions still buy its shares because people's predictions are realistic.

People spend too much energy on hypothetical growth. This is not taking into account the economic recession, the outbreak of war, the government's re-evaluation of the growth index and changes in the growth index itself.

It is not necessarily true that the price-to-earnings ratio of a stock is rarely kept at around 15 times earnings because the company's outlook is expected to be higher than the price of earnings. We know there will be exceptions, but there is only a 1% chance of an accident. So this whim affects you, causing people to buy stocks at a high price-to-earnings ratio.

I accept that excellent companies have a price-to-earnings ratio of more than 10-15 times earnings. Many of them have a price-to-earnings ratio of only 6-10 times, which is good for both of us.

If you can control the overall market price of a certain company, you can make more profit from it.

7、Don't fall in love.

In this adventurous world, because there are many possibilities, people will be obsessed with an idea, a person, an ideal. In the end, the only thing that can fascinate people is the stock. But it's just a piece of paper that proves your ownership of a business, it's just a symbol of money.

8、Diversify your investments, but do not do hedging

Hedging is a long position on some stocks and a short position on others.

Professionals use hedging trades to avoid risks in the daily market, sometimes entering the market.Hedging is just a gamble. I do not approve of doing so. But there is no law against it.

Hedging is indeed a change in modern stocks.When you bought the same stock from the New York and London markets a century ago, the price difference between cities was only small. Experts buy a stock from one market and sell it in another. although they make little money, they still make a profit.

Profit and risk factors are low compared with today's stock market. But believe me, today's stock market is quite risky.

If you insist on hedging and are sure that experience can help you, remember to diversify it, look at the big picture, and make sure your rules are correct. If you want to diversify your investments, you should increase your income, such as capital, as much as possible.

9、Observe the surrounding environment

By environment, I mean the trend of the market and the environment of the whole world. You need to adapt the models I gave you to adapt to the operation of your market.

In the evaluation of the market, we should pay more attention to the change of percentage rather than quantity. A drop of 100 points is volatile, but it may be only 2% of the index.

Watching the market allows me to find out when the market starts to decline and when it starts to recover. This often gives investors the opportunity to invest in so-called conservative areas, such as short-term interest-free treasury bonds, long-term treasury bonds and treasury bills.

Short-term interest-free treasury bonds are the main investment direction for large investors. they are more insured than any investment and safer than putting money in a pillow. You don't need economists to tell you how to study interest rates. Nothing is more important than predicting the direction of the market. The same is true of interest rates, and the downturn in long-term interest rates illustrates the seriousness of the economic situation more than any other fact.In general, if short-term and long-term interest rates start to rise, it is telling equity investors that the uptrend is coming.

It is not necessary for stocks to invest according to the calendar regardless of the season.Remember, it's risky for investors all the time. For those who enjoy life and the joy of investment, the seasons are changeable, but opportunities are available all the time.

10、Don't stick to the rules.

It is necessary to change your way of thinking according to the changes of the situation. My view is that you should take the initiative to change according to the changes of economic and political factors. Technically, sometimes we can control it, but sometimes it's out of our control.

I'm good at bear market thinking, and I'm at odds with optimists. But if most people are pessimistic, I think bullish instead, and vice versa, I do hedging at the same time.