Core ideas:
There is a great demand for drugs in the chronic state of prostate cancer. Prostate cancer is a typical elderly tumor. globally, among men, new cases of prostate cancer account for 14.1%, second only to lung cancer. It is estimated that there will be 115,000 new cases of prostate cancer in China in 2020, 1410,000 cases per year by 2025, and 170000 cases by 2030. At the same time, the overall survival time of prostate cancer is longer. According to the survival data of 21 registration agencies in China, during the period 2000-2004, 2005-2009 and 2010-2014, the 5-year survival rates of prostate cancer in China were 57.7% (52.3-63.0), 62.5% (59.9-65.1) and 69.2% (66.4-72.0), respectively. Behind the higher long-term survival rate, it means that the stock of patients is large, and the corresponding drug market is larger.
Castration and antiandrogen therapy are the core of the treatment of prostate cancer. Because of its sensitivity to androgen, castration combined with anti-androgen therapy is the core of drug treatment for various subtypes of prostate cancer.
Riverutamide and SHR7280 are the company's important locations in the field of prostate cancer. Reverutamide is a second-generation AR antagonist independently developed by Hengrui, which has been approved by NMPA to be marketed for metastatic sex hormone-sensitive prostate cancer (mHSPC). It has become the first domestic and the third approved second-generation AR antagonist for metastatic hormone-sensitive prostate cancer (mHSPC) in the world, and it is also the only domestic AR antagonist in mHSPC. SHR7280, an oral small molecule GnRH antagonist developed by the company, is rapidly promoting the study of indications for prostate cancer and sex hormone-related gynecological diseases, and is expected to form a synergistic effect with riverutamide in the future.
Profit forecast and investment advice. It is estimated that the EPS in 22-24 is 0.66,0.77 and 0.91 yuan per share respectively; considering that the company is in the domestic innovative drug harvest season, the transformation acceleration period; the acceleration of the internationalization of innovation, some new drug products are expected to be reported overseas within this year. Combined with industry adjustment and the company's leading position in the industry, maintain the judgment of a reasonable value of 41.13 yuan per share and maintain a "buy" rating.
Risk hint. The commercialization of riverutamine is not as expected, and the promotion of research and development is not as expected.