Zhitong Financial APP learned that the first Securities released a research report thatRecovery after the epidemic, leading Nuggets.Looking forward to the second half of the year, the bank is still optimistic about investment opportunities in the textile and clothing industry.The sustained impact of the epidemic will further promote the differentiation of the competition pattern in the industry, and the subdivision leader is expected to strengthen its leading advantage in the post-epidemic recovery stage.It is suggested to grasp two main lines of investment: one is to continue to be optimistic about the scale growth and pattern concentration of the sports outdoor and children's wear industry, and focus on recommending the brand upward & actively optimizing the reform of the subdivision track leader. Recommend brand upgrade & business globalization$ANTA Sports Products (02020.HK) $002563.SZ, which has the highest market share of children's wear, and 300888.SZ, which has outstanding channel advantages, and it is recommended to pay attention to Bosideng International (03998), 361degrees (01361), Li Ning Co. Ltd. (02331), 603908.SH and so on. Second, under the disturbance of the epidemic situation at home and abroad, the competitive advantage is highlighted, the core barriers are deep, and the performance of high-quality textile manufacturing leader is strong, recommended sports shoes contract manufacturing leader 300979.SZ, and actively pay attention to outdoor supplies contract manufacturing leader Zhejiang Natural (605080.SH) and so on.
Review of 2022H1: export toughness is strong, domestic sales are under short-term pressure.
(1) cost: the price of cotton and other raw materials fluctuates continuously, which suppresses the profit space of textile enterprises. the head brand transmits the pressure through the price and makes the leader to digest the pressure with scale effect.
(2) exports: from March to April, the epidemic situation blocked and affected the logistics and supply chain, and export orders slowed down; in the short term, China's supply chain was more resilient, exports resumed rapid growth, and RMB exchange rate depreciation enhanced export competitiveness; in the long run, the transfer trend of labor-intensive industries remained unchanged, and China retained more technical links in the production of raw materials and auxiliary materials.
(3) domestic sales: the epidemic situation is severe & the tightening of control has a significant impact on clothing retail. From April to May, the industry has experienced the greatest decline, and the demand inflection point has reached under the resumption of work. Traditional e-commerce growth has slowed down, interest e-commerce is still the tuyere, product structure optimization & brand self-broadcast to enhance profitability, strengthen the promotion of product publicity; the impact of special events is still there, the upgrading of the national brand has increased the public acceptance, and the sports shoes and clothing industry has maintained a high economy.
Looking forward to 2022H2: the prosperity of the golden racetrack has rebounded after the epidemic, and the performance of high-quality manufacturing leaders has strong certainty.
(1) Outdoor sports: the upsurge of national fitness promotes the high prosperity of China's sports shoes and clothing industry, and the scarcity of product functionality and marketing resources makes the industry highly concentrated. With the increase in per capita spending and penetration, there is room for the industry, and outdoor and women's sports have become new drivers of growth. The competition intensifies & the impact of the epidemic accelerates the reshuffle of the industry, and the brand barrier of the head deepens.
(2) Children's clothing: China has a large population base, the policy is good for birth, and the family structure and fertility concept promote the frequency of children's clothing consumption. The new generation of consumers pay a premium for brand quality, and "volume" and "price" drive industry growth. The leader is expected to consolidate its advantages by virtue of brand reputation and product design innovation.
(3) exquisite camping: under the catalysis of the epidemic situation, exquisite camping rises with the trend, the heat of short-term consumption is not reduced, the medium-and long-term demand promotes the gradual improvement of the industrial chain, and the industrial coordination promotes the sustainable growth of the industry. Head enterprises with first-mover advantages and active layout of the industrial chain are expected to benefit for a long time.
(4) Textile manufacturing: the manufacturer's development capacity, batch production capacity, product quality and delivery date become the brand side to pay attention to the consideration dimension. The brand order of the head is tilted to the core supplier, and the concentration of the manufacturing end is moderately improved. In the customer-capacity-R & D to establish barriers to the leading performance of strong certainty.
Risk Tips:The price of raw materials fluctuates greatly; the risk of flagging terminal demand; the risk of exchange rate fluctuation.