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外盘头条:“我们可能回不去了”,鲍威尔和拉加德坦言新通胀时代来临

The headline of the outer disk: "We may not be able to go back." Powell and Lagarde admitted that the new era of inflation is coming.

環球市場播報 ·  Jun 30, 2022 07:11

Source: Sina Finance

The global financial media last night and this morningThe main headlines of common concern are:

1. "We may not be able to go back"-Powell and Lagarde say frankly that the new era of inflation is coming

2. Where is the bottom of US stocks? Wall Street veterans who have been fighting for 60 years expect the S & P to tumble by 35%.

Quarterly survey shows that CFO's optimism about the economy has dropped to the lowest level in nearly a decade

4. The Democratic Party discusses the reduction of tax increases, hoping to pass Biden's economic package in the next few weeks.

Ackerman shouted again that the Federal Reserve urged it to "act decisively to stifle inflation."

6. The US Department of Justice says it has frozen 330 billion dollars in Russian elite and bank assets.

"We may not be able to go back"-- Powell and Lagarde say frankly that the new era of inflation is coming

Both the chairman of the Federal Reserve and the president of the European Central Bank are sceptical about the return of the low-inflation environment before the outbreak, and as interest rates rise, they have to look for answers in the new environment.

"We have been living in a world driven by very different factors since the outbreak," said Powell, chairman of the Federal Reserve.

Christine Lagarde, president of the European Central Bank, who sat next to him, agreed that she did not think it was "possible to return to a low-inflation environment".

Globalization, an ageing population, low productivity and technological development can no longer contain inflation, Powell explained.

"We don't know if the future will go back to the way it used to be. I doubt it's a complex fusion situation." Powell said. "We are learning to deal with it."

"as a result of the epidemic and the huge geopolitical shock we are facing, something has been released and they will change the environment in which we live," Lagarde said.

Mr Powell warned that while he thought raising interest rates might not trigger a recession, it would be "very challenging" to do so. Ms Lagarde said the ECB must be prepared to step up its actions if necessary, but also step by step in cases of high uncertainty.

Where is the bottom of US stocks? Wall Street veterans who have been fighting for 60 years expect the S & P to tumble by 35%.

Few connoisseurs will laugh off the prediction that the s & p 500 will tumble by 35%, but George Ball, a 60-year Wall Street veteran, says that even that much is just a normal adjustment.

Ball is chairman of Sanders Morris Harris, a Houston-based investment firm. He predicted that the S & P 500, which reached a record high of 4796 in January, would hit bottom at 3100. While he said the slump would be disturbing, he did not think the outlook was too pessimistic, in part because the stock market rose sharply after bottoming out in the early stages of the epidemic.

"We all like to count backwards from high, but it doesn't make any sense," Ball said in a telephone interview. "it's the erosion of gains, not the accumulation of terrible losses. Falling to 3100 is a fairly normal cyclical adjustment that can erase the excessive and psychological rise brought about by economic stimulus. "

Quarterly survey shows US company CFO's optimism about the economy dropped to its lowest level in nearly a decade

Chief financial officers are increasingly pessimistic about the performance of the US economy this year, with a confidence index falling to its lowest level in nearly a decade.

According to a quarterly CFO survey conducted by Duke University's Fuqua School of Business and the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond and Atlanta, respondents lowered their economic growth forecasts to 50.7, the lowest level since late 2012.

The survey, conducted between May 25 and June 10, surveyed 320 US financial executives who continued to list inflation, labor quality and supply as the most pressing concerns. They generally expect companies to face higher price and cost pressures.

"optimism about the overall economy has fallen sharply," said John Graham, a finance professor at Duke University and academic director of the survey. "Monetary tightening is one of several factors that dampen the economic outlook."

On average, CFO expects real GDP growth of 1.5 per cent over the next 12 months, down from 2.5 per cent in the last survey.

More than 1/5 of CFO believe that US GDP growth is likely to be negative in the coming year, up from 12% in the previous quarter.

Democrats discuss tax increases, hoping to pass Biden's economic package in the next few weeks

Senate Democrats are seeking to reduce tax increases in President Joe Biden's economic package, hoping to reach an agreement with Senator Joe Manchin and pass the plan in the coming weeks, according to people familiar with the matter.

The adjustments under consideration will weaken some of the tax increases passed by the House of Representatives last year, which could mean that U.S. businesses and wealthy families end up raising taxes less than Mr. Biden and the Democrats originally envisioned, people familiar with the matter said.

The discussion of making the tax plan more business-friendly comes against the backdrop of Senate majority leader Chuck Schumer and West Virginia Democratic Senator Manchin, who are close to agreeing that the final overall plan should be about $1 trillion, according to people familiar with the matter. Since the Democratic and Republican parties each have 50 seats in the Senate, a Manchin vote is crucial for the plan to be passed in the Senate. In view of the fact that the negotiations are not made public, people familiar with the matter spoke on condition of anonymity.

Ackerman shouted again at the Federal Reserve, urging it to "act decisively to stifle inflation".

Billionaire hedge fund manager Bill Ackerman (Bill Ackman) on Tuesday renewed his call for the Fed to intervene aggressively to curb inflation.

"Business is a game of confidence. Consumer confidence is weak because of inflation, not because of the economy. There are plenty of jobs and a strong economy, "Ackerman said on social media." @ federalreserve needs to act decisively to stifle inflation and inflation expectations before confidence can be restored. "

Us consumer confidence fell to its lowest level since February 2021 in June as inflation continued to dampen Americans' outlook for the economy, according to the latest data released yesterday.

The US Justice Department says it has frozen 330 billion dollars in Russian elite and bank assets.

The United States and its allies have frozen the assets of more than $30 billion of Russian oligarchs, and the task force has frozen about $300 billion of funds from Russia's central bank, the Justice Department said on June 29.

A task force of Russian elites, agents and oligarchs (REPO) set up by the United States has released new details about the seizure of high-value property owned by Russian business giants. They are trying to seize luxury goods from these giants, including yachts worth hundreds of millions of dollars, and continue to put political pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin. The Ministry of Justice believes that the work of the task force is "not yet completed" and that it will continue to track Russian assets in the coming months.

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