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通胀降温的第一个迹象是什么?

What is the first sign that inflation is cooling down?

智通財經 ·  Jun 29, 2022 23:34

Scott Goginsky, an investment consultant partner, research analyst and portfolio manager at Biondo, recently shared what he believes contributed to the decline in the market and his forecast of when inflation will cool. Goginsky also reminded investors to keep a close eye on market and economic trends.

What are the factors that cause the market to fall?

Goginsky thinks it's basically up to the Fed. Market valuations have been reset as the Fed raises interest rates in response to inflation. The Fed put option (Fed Put), which provided extra leverage and pushed up the price-to-earnings ratio, has now been repriced. As a result, many stocks with higher multiples have been hit harder than others.

When will inflation subside?

The first sign of cooling inflation may come from the price of "commodities". Supply chain has always been an important issue in this field. The market is beginning to see signs of a rise in items such as used cars and building materials. In addition, retail prices have risen sharply in recent months, which could lead to big discounts in the future, leading to deflation.

How can investors take advantage of the current market and economic environment?

Judging whether the market has hit bottom is a difficult decision, and few investors can judge it correctly. It is important to know which sectors will rebound from the bottom and adjust your portfolio accordingly. Technology and some health-care companies tend to lead growth after big adjustments and seem to be good sectors for eventual recovery.

What market and economic trends do you pay attention to? Is there one that investors are not paying enough attention to at the moment?

Corporate earnings are, of course, a key fundamental data. Evidence of a slowdown can be inferred from earnings and corporate prospects. As another branch, inventory is not something that every investor pays close attention to, but it should be paid attention to in the current environment. The rise in inventories indicates a possible discount rate in the future, which will hurt the company's profit margin.

During this period, what economic indicators are worthy of investors' attention?

Inflation is the biggest concern of the market at present. The inflation protected bond (TIPS) market is an indicator of future inflation expectations, which seem to have been falling in recent weeks as spreads on inflation protected bonds have narrowed.

Edit / phoebe

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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