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美股前瞻 | 美联储梅斯特:支持7月加息75个基点;​高盛开始唱空:美股业绩正走下坡路
Outlook for US stocks | Federal Reserve Mestre: support for raising interest rates by 75 basis points in July; ​ Goldman Sachs Group begins to short: the performance of US stocks is going downhill

富途資訊 ·  {{timeTz}}

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全球宏观

Global macro

  • 周三盘前,美股三大股指期货小幅走高

  • 美联储梅斯特:支持7月加息75个基点

  • The futures of the three major US stock indexes rose slightly before Wednesday's trading.

  • Fed Mestre: support for raising interest rates by 75 basis points in July

美联储梅斯特称,今年我们将看到经济增长有所放缓,高通胀对消费者信心造成了负面影响。为了打压通胀,有必要继续加息,明年希望看到利率在4%以上。7月讨论的焦点将是50个或75个基点,他本人支持75个基点。美国通胀可能会进一步升高,但预计美国经济不会发生衰退。

'We will see a slowdown in economic growth this year, with high inflation having a negative impact on consumer confidence, 'Mr. Mestre said. In order to curb inflation, it is necessary to continue to raise interest rates, which we hope to see above 4% next year. The focus of the discussion in July will be 50 or 75 basis points, which he himself supports. Us inflation is likely to rise further, but a recession is not expected.

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  • 大摩带来坏消息中的好消息:美国大概率衰退,但这次没那么可怕

  • Morgan Stanley brings good news from the bad news: the United States is likely to decline, but this time it is not so terrible.

摩根士丹利首席投资官莎莉特在周二的研报中写到,在美联储大幅加息和鹰派前瞻指引的影响下,美国经济今年陷入衰退的可能性在最近几周已经增加了一倍至50%以上。不过,莎莉特也提到,坏消息中的好消息就是,如果美国经济这次真的陷入衰退,很可能是温和的衰退。

Shalit, chief investment officer of Morgan Stanley, wrote in a research paper on Tuesday that the likelihood of the US economy falling into recession this year has doubled to more than 50 per cent in recent weeks under the influence of sharp interest rate hikes and hawkish forward-looking guidance from the Federal Reserve. However, Shalit also mentioned that the good news in the bad news is that if the US economy does fall into recession this time, it is likely to be a mild recession.

  • 抑制住通胀同时经济不衰退?贝莱德给美联储「泼冷水」:不可能的

  • Curb inflation without recession? Blackrock poured cold water on the Federal Reserve: impossible

随着美联储官员近日相继站出来淡化美国衰退风险,全球最大资产管理公司贝莱德副董事长Philipp Hildebrand周二(28日)却唱反调,美国通胀可能已经见顶,但这并不意味着美联储可以在不造成重大经济损害的情况下,将物价控制在目标水平。

As Fed officials have recently stepped forward to play down the risk of recession in the United States, Philipp Hildebrand, vice chairman of Blackrock, the world's largest asset management company, said on Tuesday (28th) that US inflation may have peaked, but that does not mean that the Fed can keep prices at its target level without causing significant economic damage.

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  • 高盛开始唱空:美股业绩正走下坡路,外界预期过于乐观

  • Goldman Sachs Group began to sing short: the performance of US stocks is going downhill, and outsiders are too optimistic.

一向对美股较为乐观的高盛集团最近也改口了。高盛策略师最新报告指出,市场对标普500指数成份股的利润率预期过于乐观。这些企业明年的表现可能会不及预期,美股可能将面临进一步下跌的风险。不过,高盛策略师还是给投资者指了条明路,他们向投资者推荐了具稳定业绩的大公司、医疗行业和能源行业的股票。

Goldman Sachs Group Group, which has always been more optimistic about US stocks, has also changed its tune recently. The latest report by Goldman Sachs Group strategists points out that the market is too optimistic about profit margins for stocks in the S & P 500 index. These companies are likely to underperform next year, and U. S. stocks are at risk of falling further. However, Goldman Sachs Group strategists showed the way to investors, recommending stocks of large companies, healthcare and energy industries with stable performance to investors.

  • 「逢低买入」魔力不在?美股投资者不敢抄底了

  • The magic of "buying on a bargain" is not there? Investors in US stocks do not dare to copy the bottom.

彭博汇编的数据显示,截至上周五,标普500指数较2022年的低谷上涨超过6%,但是却有约100亿美元资金从股票基金中撤出。资金外流进一步证明,在曾经成功的「逢低买入」策略失败后,投资者情绪正在恶化。过去两周中,摩根士丹利跟踪的对冲基金将其股票敞口削减至2009年以来的最低水平。与此同时,个人投资者放弃了长期以来的看涨立场,以近两年来最快的速度抛售股票。

As of Friday, the s & p 500 was up more than 6% from its trough in 2022, but about $10 billion was withdrawn from equity funds, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Capital outflows are further evidence that investor sentiment is deteriorating after the failure of the once successful bargain-hunting strategy. In the past two weeks, hedge funds tracked by Morgan Stanley have cut their exposure to stocks to their lowest level since 2009. At the same time, individual investors abandoned their long-standing bullish stance and sold shares at the fastest pace in nearly two years.

热点要闻

Hot news

  • 特斯拉裁员进行时!加州至少数百名无人驾驶部门员工遭裁撤

  • Tesla, Inc. layoffs are in progress! At least hundreds of driverless employees in California have been laid off

美东时间6月28日周二,媒体引援知情人士消息称,$特斯拉(TSLA.US)$在关闭美国加州无人驾驶部门的同时将裁撤(至少)数百名员工。涉及裁撤的员工主要是圣马特奥办公室的负责评估与自动驾驶汽车辅助功能相关的客户车辆数据的团队,该办公室有大约350名员工,其中一部分员工将被调到附近的一个机构。截至发稿,特斯拉盘前跌超1%。

On Tuesday, June 28, US Eastern time, the media introduced aid to people familiar with the matter.$Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) $Hundreds of employees will be laid off along with the closure of California's self-driving department. The employees involved in the layoffs are mainly the team responsible for evaluating customer vehicle data related to self-driving car aids in the San Mateo office, which has about 350 employees, some of whom will be transferred to a nearby organization. As of press time, Tesla, Inc. was down more than 1 per cent before trading.

  • 郭明錤称苹果自研芯片可能失败,iPhone将继续采用高通芯片

  • Guo Mingyi said that Apple Inc's self-developed chip may fail, and iPhone will continue to use Qualcomm Inc chip.

6月28日,天风国际分析师郭明錤在社交媒体上表示,一份调查结果表明,$苹果(AAPL.US)$自研iPhone 5G芯片研发可能已经失败,意味着$高通(QCOM.US)$在2023年下半年将是iPhone唯一的5G调制解调器芯片供应商。郭明錤称,由于目前苹果的芯片无法取代高通,高通在2023年下半年和2024年上半年的营收和利润都将会超过市场预期。等到苹果自产芯片取代高通芯片时,高通其他新业务应该已经增长到足以显著抵消负面影响。

On June 28, Tianfeng International analyst Guo Mingyi said on social media that a survey showed that$Apple Inc (AAPL.US) $The development of self-developed iPhone 5G chip may have failed, which means$Qualcomm Inc (QCOM.US) $It will be the only supplier of 5G modem chips to iPhone in the second half of 2023. Guo Mingyi said that as the current Apple Inc chip can not replace Qualcomm Inc, Qualcomm Inc's revenue and profits in the second half of 2023 and the first half of 2024 will exceed market expectations. By the time Apple Inc's home-made chips replace Qualcomm Inc chips, Qualcomm Inc's other new business should have grown enough to significantly offset the negative impact.

  • 福特与澳洲矿商Liontown签署锂供应协议

  • Ford signs Lithium supply Agreement with Australian miner Liontown

当地时间周三(6月29日),澳大利亚锂矿商Liontown Resources Ltd宣布与美国$福特汽车(F.US)$达成了具有约束力的正式承购协议。承购协议的初始期限为5年,预计将于2024年开始。Liontown的Kathleen Valley锂矿项目将在第一年向福特提供75,000干吨(DMT,扣除水分后的重量)锂辉石精矿,第二年增加到125,000干吨,第三至第五年增加到150,000干吨。另外,Liontown还和福特签署了一份具有约束力的融资协议,获得了价值3亿澳元的债务融资,用于Kathleen Valley项目的进一步开发。

Australian lithium miner Liontown Resources Ltd announced Wednesday that it was working with the United States.$Ford Motor (F.US) $A binding formal off-take agreement has been reached. The initial term of the off-take agreement is five years and is expected to begin in 2024. Liontown's Kathleen Valley lithium project will supply Ford with 75000 dry tons (DMT, weight after moisture) of spodumene concentrate in the first year, increasing to 125000 dry tons in the second year and 150000 dry tons in the third to fifth years. In addition, Liontown signed a binding financing agreement with Ford and secured A $300m worth of debt financing for further development of the Kathleen Valley project.

  • 摩根大通:下调大型科技股盈利预期,原因包括宏观经济压力

  • JPMorgan Chase & Co: downgrade the profit forecast of large technology stocks, including macroeconomic pressure.

摩根大通下调了其对大型上市科技公司,尤其是那些有在线广告业务的公司的盈利预测,原因是宏观经济压力、汇率问题和具体公司情况等。摩根大通分析师Doug Anmuth在报告中写道,虽然互联网行业继续维持长期增长,但比2008-09年成熟得多,抵挡宏观大趋势的能力「更加有限」,下调$Snap Inc(SNAP.US)$$谷歌-C(GOOG.US)$$Meta Platforms(META.US)$$Pinterest(PINS.US)$的盈利预测和目标价,警惕经济放缓对广告支出的影响。电商股方面,他表示,得益于价格低、选择多和配送快,亚马逊在经济衰退环境下应该会增加零售份额,不过它可能会受到支出疲软的影响,下调$亚马逊(AMZN.US)$$eBay(EBAY.US)$$Farfetch(FTCH.US)$的目标价。

JPMorgan Chase & Co downgraded his profit forecasts for large listed technology companies, especially those with online advertising business, due to macroeconomic pressures, exchange rate problems and company-specific conditions. JPMorgan Chase & Co analyst Doug Anmuth wrote in the report that although the Internet industry continues to maintain long-term growth, it is much more mature than in 2008-09, and its ability to resist macro trends is "more limited".$Snap Inc Inc (SNAP.US) $$Alphabet Inc-CL C-C (GOOG.US) $$Meta Platforms (META.US) $$Pinterest (PINS.US) $Profit forecasts and target prices to guard against the impact of the economic slowdown on advertising spending. As for e-commerce stocks, he said that Amazon.Com Inc should increase the share of retail sales in the recession, thanks to low prices, more choices and fast distribution, but it may be affected by weak spending.$Amazon.Com Inc (AMZN.US) $$eBay (EBAY.US) $$Farfetch (FTCH.US) $The target price.

  • Beyond Meat即将推出切片牛排产品

  • Beyond Meat is about to launch sliced steak.

$Beyond Meat(BYND.US)$准备推出一种切片牛排产品,扩大该公司的植物肉阵容,以提振疲软的销售。公司CEO Ethan Brown表示,计划今年在零售店推出这种牛排产品,并最终在餐馆推出。CEO说,「这可能是我们迄今为止最好的产品之一。」截至发稿,Beyond Meat盘前涨近1%。

$Beyond Meat (BYND.US) $It is preparing to launch a sliced steak product to expand the company's vegetable meat lineup to boost weak sales. The company CEO Ethan Brown said it plans to launch the steak in retail stores this year and eventually in restaurants. "this is probably one of our best products so far," CEO said. As of press time, Beyond Meat was up nearly 1 per cent before trading.

聚焦中概股

Focus on China-listed stocks

  • 热门中概股盘前多数下跌

  • 蔚来盘前跌近6%,称灰熊做空报告毫无依据

  • Most of the hot Chinese stocks fell before the day.

  • NIO Inc. fell nearly 6% before the session, saying that the grizzly bear's short report was groundless.

截至发稿,$蔚来(NIO.US)$盘前跌近6%,此前回应遭灰熊做空,称做空报告毫无依据,并考虑采取行动保护股东利益。

As of the press release$NIO Inc. (NIO.US) $It fell nearly 6% before trading after the grizzly bear shorted the report, saying it was groundless and considering action to protect shareholders' interests.

  • 京东与腾讯控股续签三年战略合作协议

  • JD.com and Tencent renew the three-year strategic cooperation agreement

$京东(JD.US)$公告,公司已与$腾讯控股(ADR)(TCEHY.US)$重续战略合作协议,为期三年。腾讯将继续在其微信平台上向本公司提供显著的一级及二级访问入口以提供流量支持,且双方亦有意继续在通信、技术服务、营销及广告以及会员服务等多个领域合作。作为总对价的一部分,京东将在三年期间的特定预先确定日期参照现行市场价格向腾讯发行一定数量的A类普通股,对价最高为2.2亿美元。截至发稿,京东盘前微跌。

$JD.com (JD.US) $Announcement, the company has been in contact with$Tencent (ADR) (TCEHY.US) $Renew the strategic cooperation agreement for a period of three years. Tencent will continue to provide significant primary and secondary access portals to the Company on its Wechat platform to provide traffic support, and the two sides also intend to continue to cooperate in the fields of communications, technical services, marketing and advertising and membership services. As part of the total consideration, JD.com will issue a certain number of Class A common shares to Tencent at a specific predetermined date during the three-year period with reference to the current market price, with a maximum consideration of US $220 million. As of press time, JD.com fell slightly before the day.

  • 满帮:即日起恢复「运满满」、「货车帮」的新用户注册

  • Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd.: the registration of new users of "full capacity" and "truck gang" will be resumed from now on.

$满帮(YMM.US)$官方微博消息,近一年来,公司认真配合国家网络安全审查,严肃对待审查中发现的安全问题,进行了全面整改。经报网络安全审查办公室同意,即日起恢复「运满满」、「货车帮」的新用户注册。后续,公司将采取有效措施,切实保障平合设施安全和大数据安全,维护国家安全。截至发稿,满帮盘前涨近7%。

$Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. (YMM.US) $According to the official Weibo Corp, over the past year, the company has seriously cooperated with the national network security review, took seriously the security problems found in the review, and carried out comprehensive rectification. With the consent of the network security review office, the registration of new users of "full capacity" and "truck gang" will be resumed from now on. In the follow-up, the company will take effective measures to ensure the safety of leveling facilities and big data, and maintain national security. As of press time, Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. was up nearly 7 per cent before trading.

  • BOSS直聘:即日起恢复新用户注册

  • KANZHUN LIMITED: resume new user registration from now on

$BOSS直聘(BZ.US)$微博6月29日消息,近一年来,我公司认真配合国家网络安全审查,严肃对待审查中发现的安全问题,进行了全面整改。经报网络安全审查办公室同意,即日起恢复「BOSS直聘」的新用户注册。后续,公司将采取有效措施,切实保障平台设施安全和大数据安全,维护国家安全。截至发稿,BOSS直聘盘前涨超4%。

$KANZHUN LIMITED (BZ.US) $Weibo Corp reported on June 29th that over the past year, our company has seriously cooperated with the national network security review, took seriously the security problems found in the review, and carried out comprehensive rectification. With the consent of the network security review office, the registration of new users of "KANZHUN LIMITED" will be resumed immediately. In the follow-up, the company will take effective measures to ensure the safety of platform facilities and big data, and maintain national security. As of press time, KANZHUN LIMITED was up more than 4 per cent before trading.

  • 大摩:维持携程网「增持」评级,目标价上调至35美元

  • Morgan Stanley: maintain TRIP COM GRP LTD's "overweight" rating, and raise the target price to $35

大摩发布研究报告称,维持$携程网(TCOM.US)$「增持」评级,将今年收入预测上调30%,为2020年以来首次重大增加,当前预计撇除其他收入之非通用会计准则(non-GAAP)纯利为8亿元人民币,对比早前预测为亏损约10亿元人民币,目标价由30美元上调至35美元,相信其仍为全球旅游相关行业最大落后的股份之一。

Morgan Stanley released a research report saying that maintenance$TRIP COM GRP LTD (TCOM.US) $The "overweight" rating raised this year's revenue forecast by 30 per cent, the first significant increase since 2020. The non-General Accounting Standards (non-GAAP) net profit excluding other income is currently expected to be Rmb800m, compared with an earlier forecast loss of about Rmb1 billion, and the target price is raised from US $30 to US $35, which is believed to be one of the largest lagging shares in the global tourism-related industry.

美股盘前成交额TOP20

Pre-market turnover of US stocks TOP20

美国宏观事历提醒:

American Macro Calendar reminder:

20:30 美国第一季度实际GDP年化季率终值

20:30 final actual annualized quarterly rate of GDP in the United States in the first quarter

20:30 美国第一季度核心PCE物价指数年化季率终值

20:30 the final annualized quarterly rate of the US Core PCE Price Index for the first quarter

20:30 美联储主席鲍威尔、欧洲央行行长拉加德、英国央行行长贝利以及国际清算银行总裁卡斯腾斯在欧洲央行论坛上发表讲话。

20:30 Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, Bank of England Governor Pele and Bank for International Settlements President Carstens spoke at the ECB forum.

23:30 2022年FOMC票委、克利夫兰联储主席梅斯特发表讲话。

23:30 2022 FOMC vote Committee, Cleveland Federal Reserve Chairman Mestre delivered a speech.

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