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金田铜业(601609):更名“金田股份” 坚定新能源战略布局

Jintian Copper (601609): renaming "Jintian shares" to strengthen the strategic layout of new energy

德邦證券 ·  Jun 29, 2022 15:26  · Researches

On June 21, 2022, the company issued a notice on the Board's consideration of changing the abbreviation of Securities, which will be changed from "Jintian Copper" to "Jintian shares" on July 4, 2022, so as to strengthen the strategic layout of new energy.

The company actively develops NdFeB permanent magnet materials and copper deep processing business with new energy vehicle high voltage flat line as the core. The abbreviation of "Jintian Copper" can not effectively reflect the company's current business connotation and industrial layout. In order to better match the company's main business and strategic layout, on June 21, 2022, the company issued a "notice on the Board's consideration of changing the acronym of Securities", which decided to change the company's name to "Jintian shares" on July 4, 2022.

It is estimated that by the year 26, the company's flat line production capacity will expand to 60,000 tons, and the company will actively distribute the new demand for 800V high-voltage flat line. The production capacity of 20,000 tons of flat lines will be completed in 2022, 40,000 tons of flat lines will be completed in 2026, and a total of 60,000 tons of flat lines are expected to be completed by 2026. The 800V platform puts forward higher requirements for the corona resistance of flat lines, and the company has laid out the business of high voltage flat lines. Compared with round line motor, flat line motor has performance advantages in new energy vehicles. It is predicted that the global demand for flat line of new energy vehicles will be 225100 tons by 2025, the market size will be 14.182 billion yuan, and the market demand for GAGR=39.02%, from 2020 to 2025 will be strong. The contribution of flat line business to future performance growth is gradually increasing.

A veteran of the permanent magnet industry, it is estimated that the company's high-performance NdFeB production capacity will reach 13000 tons in 24 years, and its product profitability ranks first in the industry. The company has laid out NdFeB materials for 21 years, with complete brands and mature technology. the company currently has a production capacity of 5000 tons, mainly in the fields of wind power generation, new energy vehicles, industrial motors, consumer electronics and medical devices. as the company's high gross margin products will be put into production in 2023 and 2024 Baotou Phase I, Phase II high-performance NdFeB permanent magnet material is expected to produce a total of 13000 tons. The profitability of the company's NdFeB permanent magnet products ranks first in the industry. The company's gross profit margin of NdFeB magnetic materials remained at 21-25% from 2018 to 2021, compared with that of Jinli permanent magnet, the leader of NdFeB permanent magnet materials, at the same level (21-24%). The unit price of NdFeB magnetic materials in 21 years is 340,000 yuan / ton. close to the unit price of 350,000 yuan / ton of Jinli permanent magnet in the same period.

Copper processing leader, the production capacity is expanding rapidly, and the company's copper processing capacity is expected to reach 2.39 million tons by 24 years. In 2022, the company's copper processing capacity is expected to expand to about 2 million tons, and the production capacity of 120000 tons of landed copper alloy strip is expected to be completed and put into production in 2024, plus 150000 tons of newly raised projects and the release of all completed capacity. It is estimated that the company's copper processing capacity will reach 2.39 million tons by 2025. From 2020 to 2025, the company's copper processing capacity GAGR=12.27%, continues to expand production, raising the future copper processing production and sales expectations.

Investment advice: the company's capacity increment and quality improvement, with copper processing (including flat lines) and high-performance NdFeB new production capacity put into production, it is predicted that the company's 22-24 revenue will be 1015.14 yuan, 1080.73 yuan and 111.44 billion yuan respectively; the return net profit will be 9.60,11.91,1.31 billion yuan respectively; corresponding to 22-24 years PE11.93, 9.61,8.74 times, maintain the company's "buy" rating.

Risk hint: copper processing output is not as expected; flat wire output is not as expected; competition in NdFeB industry is intensified.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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