Zhitong Finance APP learned that Zhejiang Merchants Securities released a research report sayingThe hotel industry has both periodicity and growth. During the epidemic, individual hotels are largely cleared, supply-side clearance continues and demand picks up, which will promote Revpar upstream and provide historic opportunities for hotel chain development.The scale and production power of the front-end hotel and the fine operation capacity of the back-end determine the short-term performance and long-term growth height of the company after travel recovery.Key recommendations: Jinjiang Hotel (600754.SH), first Travel Hotel (600258.SH), Huazhu Group Limited (01179), Junting Hotel (301073.SZ).
The main points of Zheshang Securities are as follows:
Hotel industry has both periodicity and growth.
The hotel industry has two business models: direct operation and franchise, which has the periodicity of RevPAR adjustment under the fluctuation of supply and demand and the growth of both volume and price under the rapid expansion of stores. The periodicity is mainly affected by the supply and demand of the industry, and the growth is reflected in the expansion of light assets and the continuous updating and upgrading of products.
After the epidemic, the improvement of supply and demand in the hotel industry promotes the rise of cyclical factors and the continuous release of growth.
The trend of structural upgrading remains unchanged. The expansion of the middle-income group continues to provide the basis for product upgrading. Middle and high-end products have stronger profitability. According to the data of overseas hotel groups, the stability of mid-and high-end hotels is significantly higher than that of mid-end and economy hotels.
The sinking pace is speeding up. There is still room for growth in the number of hotels in China's sinking market. During the epidemic, the leader accelerates the market expansion of sinking.
Continuous clearing on the supply side and warmer demand will push Revpar upstream. During the epidemic, a large number of individual hotels were cleared, and many hotel assets were forced to enter the transaction process, providing a historic opportunity for the development of hotel chains. With reference to the recovery of the overseas epidemic, the Revpar of overseas hotel groups has approached or exceeded the level of the same period in 2019 after the deregulation.
Three rounds of historical market prices have risen and bottomed out.
2007-2008 financial crisis brought industry clearance, economic hotel expansion against the trend, the full outbreak of supply and demand since 2009, such as home with the help of the capital market bend overtaking, the stock price for 2 years 7 times.
2015-2018 hotels have entered the stage of stock development and structural upgrading. Huazhu is forward-looking in the layout of mid-and high-end hotels. The growth rate of Revpar is far higher than that of its competitors, and its share price is 13 times in 3 years.
2019-so far, the hotel chain has ushered in a historic opportunity for development. Jinjiang Hotel scale advantage + management improvement is expected, with a maximum increase of more than 3 times during this period.
Comparison of individual stocks: growth, operation and profitability, periodicity
The focus of the three leading post-epidemic stores is different: Jinjiang comprehensively plus the middle and high end, Huazhu "Thousand City Wandian" plan to focus on regional expansion, the first Brigade uses a light management model to quickly absorb small and medium-sized hotel owners.
Operational capabilities:Huazhu operating data and cost control ability to maintain the lead, Jinjiang expense rate improvement is the most obvious. During the epidemic, both Jinjiang and the first Brigade downsized. The number of employees of Jinjiang Hotel at the end of 21 years was 19% lower than that at the end of 2019, while Huazhu maintained its staff growth.
Profitability:Huazhu rose steadily during the comprehensive takerate11%, epidemic. The first brigade is lower than Huazhu about 2pct, or because the light management mode takerate is lower.
Periodicity:The proportion of the first brigade and Junting stores is relatively high, and the recovery cycle is expected to release greater performance flexibility.
Risk Tips:The recovery of the epidemic is not as expected; the competition in the industry is intensified; the expansion of new brands is not as expected; the number of net increase stores is not as expected.