The three major indexes of US stocks rebounded strongly on Friday, with the Nasdaq and S & P rising more than 3%. Throughout the week, US stocks as a whole have rebounded nearly 7% against the trend.

After a six-month slump in US financial markets, concerns began to fade with expectations of ultra-intense interest rate hikes and falling energy prices in hopes of lower inflation.

Although there is still a lot of uncertainty about whether U. S. stocks can continue to rebound, for Chinese stocks, the certainty is getting higher and higher.

Except for three barrels of oil and a very small number of stocks.Last week, the vast majority of star Chinese stocks showed eye-catching performance, and not a few rose more than ten points, twenty points or more a week.

Most of these stocks are also listed in Hong Kong, so they also confirm the logic of the recent return of Hong Kong stocks.

In particular, after the country formally signed the decision on amending the Anti-monopoly Law on June 24, today's news report saidThe highest level confirmed that they will attend the meeting to celebrate the 25th anniversary of Hong Kong's return to the motherland and the inauguration ceremony of the sixth government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative region.

Such a high standard reflects that the Central people's Government attaches great importance to Hong Kong.

As far as the Hong Kong stock market is concerned, this is a very good opportunity and deserves deep attention. Especially for the Hong Kong stock Internet technology, medical and medicine and other major sectors that were suppressed by regulatory factors and now ushered in a turnaround, the significance is more critical.

In other words, these sectors are beginning to return one after another, and from the potential of funds to enter the board, the certainty of this return is obviously greater than before.

So the question is, what kind of layout strategy can we consider?

01 The logic of regression

These major concepts of Hong Kong stocks are basically concentrated in the constituent stocks of the Hang Seng Technology Index, while the article also focuses on the regression logic of the macro level and the brief valuation level.

This time, we put our eyes more sinking, a specific analysis of these industry plates in the end how to look and layout operation.

From the perspective of valuationAt present, the Hang Seng technology sector is at a historical low valuation, and most head Internet companies PE/PS are below the historical PE/PS Band 25% quartile, even in terms of investment opportunities.The allocation value has been relatively attractive than many repeatedly hyped track stocks.

More importantly, the performance improvement expectations of enterprises in these sectors are gradually clear.

Such as TencentAlthough advertising and gaming business declined in the first quarter, with a lot of high-quality content and product output, high-quality cash, especially the layout of the real economy and high-tech areas, such as financial technology, metasmology, cloud computing, chips, video, health care and other high-growth areas of the layout is very strong, long-term growth momentum is still very solid.

Collecting a large number of institutional research and newspaper viewpoints, the qualitative analysis of Tencent is basically "Although short-term pressure, but do not change the long-term bullish, consistent that the growth rate of performance will hit bottom in the second quarter of 2022, the third quarter ushered in an inflection point, the fourth quarter is expected to resume growth.

The situation of BABA is similar.At present, the policy regulatory margin continues to improve, and there is more and more good news for ants. Although the performance has indeed dropped significantly, it is not as bad as the market fears.

BABA's total 4QFY22 performance income was + 8.9% year-on-year to 2% higher than market expectations, and the adjusted net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders was-24.4% to 21.5 billion yuan, corresponding to 10.5% of the adjusted net interest rate, which was also better than market expectations.

This year's 618 event, Tmall's overall sales situation also continued to be sound. Since April-June, BABA e-commerce platform sales have picked up month by month, and the valuation suppression of BABA e-commerce growth concerns is expected to be gradually alleviated.

In addition to e-commerce, BABA in cloud computing, AI, intelligent driving and other underlying technology layout is quite complete, the upper application development potential leading, these are the direction clearly supported by the state. In addition, in terms of local life and international business, BABA's business development is not poor, and these long-term values have not been fully tapped by the market.

The marginal regulatory pressure continues to be good + ant news is good + e-commerce business exceeds expectations + new business value is poor, which has become the core logic for capital to continue to be bullish on BABA for a long time.

Meituan's 2022Q1 performance has also exceeded expectations, and the adjusted net loss is also narrowing, which is an achievement made in the general environment hit by the epidemic. According to the company's guidelines, takeout orders will maintain a compound growth rate of 25% from 2020 to 2025, peaking at 100 million daily orders in 2025. In addition to takeout, as the epidemic recedes, Meituan's arrival, wine and travel business recovery is also very strong, and the profit contribution is becoming more and more prominent, there is also a big expectation gap.

There are also e-commerce businesses such as JD.com and Pinduoduo, as well as enterprises in industries such as saas and consumer entertainment around the Internet, which are gradually showing an obvious trend of business recovery and performance repair, such as:

Kuaishou Technology: user traffic continues to grow high, online marketing and e-commerce GMV performance exceeds expectations

XIAOMI: at present, PE is only a little over 20 times, and there is huge room for imagination in the field of AIoT and car-building business.

SMIC: at present, the PE is less than 10 times, the order demand continues to be strong, the performance continues to exceed expectations, and the replacement space for domestic chips is huge.

Shunyu: at present, PE is only a little over 20 times, mobile phone optics is declining, but vehicle optics and ARVR optics are expected to bring increment.

Haier Smart Home: at present, the PE is less than 20 times, benefiting from the policy of promoting consumption, the domestic sales and export of home appliances are very prosperous.

....

There are many enterprises in various industries, the performance of the performance is indeed poor expectations, can not be carried out here one by one.

At present, most investors still have the impression that Internet technology, health care and other industries are suppressed by multiple factors such as regulation, containment in the United States, and the impact of the epidemic, but they do not believe that expectations have begun to improve, but let these concept stocks have better expectations.

These are real trends that go far beyond the superficial perception of investors.，This is really the best time to show that "knowledge is wealth".

Believe it or not, investors had better check the specific data for themselves to verify.

At least the institutions believed it in the first place, and even the relatively calm overseas funds are speeding up the bottom-making.

02 The bottom of the fund will be copied in the end.

Recently, the inflow of funds into the Hang Seng technology sector has become more and more obvious.

Since the slump in mid-March, with the intensive introduction of regulatory rhetoric, a lot of money has bucked the trend, thus building the bottom of the Hang Seng Technology Index.

Since then, the ETF size of many Hang Seng technology stocks has increased significantly, and the trading volume has been continuously enlarged. Such as Yi Fangda's.Internet ETF (513050.SH) $Recently, the average daily turnover has risen to more than $2 billion, reflecting the continued warming of the market.

From the perspective of southward funds, although the net inflows of billions of dollars have been maintained for a long time is not large, but the large-scale purchases of funds are concentrated in the Internet, biomedicine, TMT and some financial sectors, with a very high concentration.

Another financial strength comes from large-scale admission by overseas institutions.

For example, the position of JPMorgan Chase & Co's Chinese equity fund at the end of May shows that it is constantly increasing its positions in Internet stocks. The top 10 heavy stocks are Tencent, Meituan, JD.com, NetEase, Inc, China Merchants Bank, BABA, Ping An Insurance, China Overseas Land & Investment, Wuxi Biologics and China Resources Mixc Lifestyle Services, accounting for 41% of the total.

The point is that the fund increased its positions in JD.com by as much as 12.54 times in March and by 16.08 per cent in May by JD.com. In particular, it bought BABA directly for the first time in May and was promoted to the sixth largest stock in the fund, which further proves that it is optimistic about the Internet in China.

In addition, these Hong Kong stock companies themselves have recently been making great efforts to buy back, often on the scale of hundreds of millions or even billions of Hong Kong dollars, which can be said to be full of sincerity and confidence in the future.

Therefore, taking into account the above-mentioned policy changes, the fading of the epidemic, valuation support, performance expectations, capital entry and other signs, to judge the return of Hang Seng technology stocks, the victory rate is indeed very high.

03 Layout strategy

After talking about the regression logic, how to lay it out?

Combined with the above, in fact, we can basically judge that Hang Seng technology stocks are almost a comprehensive return, and the only difference lies in how big the upward elastic space is. So basically as long as it is long-term funds, but the luck is not back home, from the bottom in March, or get on the car in April, the income is very good now.

such as,The more obvious the company that has been hammered before, and the more positive the catalytic factors are, the more room for flexibility must be.

For example, New Oriental Education & Technology Group online before, was already dying on the floor, but in the context of the 618 promotion, just live with goods mode is a great success, the stock price can soar nearly 10 times in just a few days (of course, there is also an element of excessive speculation).

Of course, if you consider from the perspective of future expected space and financial security, perhaps the following is a good idea to learn from:

First,We can continue to choose the track that is in line with the leading direction of the policy. for example, at present, it is the clearest period of the policy to promote consumption. in the future, consumer-oriented enterprises are not only likely to usher in policy dividends, but also have a high probability of performance recovery.(cash results in the second half of the year)This is the reason for the recent increase in the automobile, food and beverage, electronics industry and so on.

There are also long-term policy-oriented industries, such as artificial intelligence, AI, AR/VR, semiconductors, industrial software, self-driving and other fields, which will always be the long-term track of policy support, with short-term policy subsidies, tax incentives, and a lot of potential for demand transformation in the long term.Recently, the top-level design of digital infrastructure and the AR/VR industry under the meta-universe tide began to break out one after another from hardware to content, so these industrial stocks are bound to continue to be the darling of large funds, and the growth certainty is relatively high.

As it happens, all of these can basically be found in the Hang Seng Technology Index, so the safest layout strategy is to directly configure the ETF related to Hang Seng Technology, especially some ETF with high weight of Internet technology:Hang Seng Technology ETF (03032.HK) $、Hang Seng Technology ETF (159740.SZ) $、Hang Seng Technology Index ETF (513180.SH) $、$New Economic Hong Kong Stock Connect LOF (501311.SH) $、Hang Seng Technology ETF (513130.SH) $、Internet ETF (513050.SH) $Wait.

Of course, there are other strategic ETF also worth a look, such as biomedical, high dividend, and even some cross-border Internet ETF.

On June 24th, ETF was incorporated into the formal implementation of interconnection.

According to the statistics, there are about 589 stock ETF listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges at present, and about 89 ETF may meet the requirements of Lufentong.With a total size of about 665.3 billion yuan While stocks in Hong KongThere are 6 Hong Kong stock ETF that may be included in the interconnection.The indexes tracked include Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, Hang Seng Technology Index, etc.The total scale is more than 200 billion yuan。

It can be predicted that after ETF interconnection, whether it is the Internet technology, medicine and exclusive characteristics of Hong Kong stocks, or related ETF funds, will get more and more capital attention, thus ushering in a long-term boom era.

04 The end.

As far as investment is concerned, the rare investment in a lifetime is often a golden pit that is broken during the stock market crisis. now many great enterprises have basically had such an experience, but if someone has caught a wave, a lifetime of wealth may be enough.

We are not sure whether Hong Kong stocks are at this critical point.

But in the current valuation repair window for these Hong Kong stocks, we might as well maintain a little more confidence in them, perhaps this is really a rare opportunity.