Source: Securities Times
Author: Jiang Zhi, he Jueyuan
Editor's note: today, Hong Kong stocks rose more than 5 points, the market situation is improving, the money-making effect is obvious, plate Shangke net stocks, catering stocks, Hao gambling stocks, energy stocks have all risen sharply, and the market is recovering in an all-round way.
Last Friday, June 25, at the China Macroeconomic Forum (CMF) Quarterly Forum (mid-2022), Huang Qifan, former mayor of Chongqing and distinguished professor of Fudan University, Yang Weimin, member of the standing Committee of the 13th CPPCC National Committee and deputy director of the Economic Committee of the CPPCC National Committee, Wang Yiming, member of the Monetary Policy Committee of the people's Bank of China and vice chairman of the China Center for International Economic Exchange, and Liu Wei, president of Renmin University of China. Liu Yuanchun, president of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics and former vice president of Renmin University of China, Mao Zhenhua, co-director of the Institute of Economics of Renmin University of China and chairman of China Integrity Group, attended the event and expressed his views on the current macroeconomic situation, stabilizing the industrial chain supply chain and dealing with global inflationary pressures.
At the meeting, CMF released a report on China's macroeconomic analysis and forecast for the first half of the year. The report predicts that under the benchmark scenario, China's real GDP growth in the first half of the year will be 2.7%.In the second half of the year, with the great relaxation of the epidemic factors, under the joint action of the comprehensive efforts of macro policies and the repair and adjustment of market entities, the suppressed consumption and investment demand will be fully released, the industrial chain supply chain will be effectively restored, China's economy will rebound strongly, and the real GDP growth rate in the second half of the year is expected to reach 6.4%.
Huang Qifan: the trillion-dollar market is taking shape, and the "five major industries" are very interesting.
Huang Qifan expressed his views on the impact and development trend of the global industrial chain and supply chain. He said: at present, the economic operation of all countries in the world is impacted and affected by three factors. First, the COVID-19 epidemic has been repeatedly delayed; second, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has escalated; and third, international geopolitical competition has intensified.
"recently, various views on economic globalization have also been mixed and numerous. There is a view that the globalization represented by horizontal division of labor in the past has come to an end, fragmented, and the global supply chain needs to be greatly adjusted. 'These views look scary, but they are actually very short-sighted, 'Mr. Huang said.' we should look at how multinationals arranged their supply chains in the first half of the year and how to deal with supply chain uncertainty.
Huang Qifan said: globalization has never been plain sailing and developed in a straight line. it always rises in the midst of twists and turns, and there are always all kinds of uncertainties, and multinational corporations basically have two definite strategies to deal with all kinds of uncertainties. that is, there are two modes of producing and selling land.
Origin sales are produced in one place and sold directly to all parts of the world. Land sales organize production in the main sales markets to directly meet local needs. China is a unique super-large-scale single market in the world, and both models can be fully implemented in China. China's super-large single market is the key force to stabilize the global industrial chain and supply chain.
Huang Qifan stressed: to meet new challenges, we need to make progress in stability, have new iterative upgrades at the industrial chain, supply chain, and other industrial organization levels, and have higher quality and industrial system in order to take the initiative in the new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation. only in this way can we further give full play to China's advantages as the largest single market in the world, and give full play to the advantages of internal circulation and external circulation to promote each other.
Specifically, the next step is to make efforts at five levels of the industrial chain. First of all, to build the industrial chain cluster by attracting investment in the industrial chain, we should change from the peer-to-peer investment model of the project to the industrial chain cluster. Second, further self-reliance and self-improvement to speed up the expansion of the strong chain, around the strategic emerging industries to achieve the weak links in the industrial chain to achieve a plan to expand the strong chain, to achieve a higher level of division of labor and deeper integration. The third is to cultivate and form a number of leading manufacturing enterprises that can not only organize the horizontal division of labor in the middle and lower reaches of the industrial chain, but also achieve vertical integration, that is, the leading enterprises of core contract manufacturing. Fourth, it is necessary to cultivate China's own eco-oriented chain enterprises. Fifth, it is necessary to plan and layout a number of complete machine products that are in line with the direction of industrial reform in the future.
Huang Qifan said that in the next 20 to 30 years, the "five big pieces" that can form a trillion-dollar market have begun to take shape. The first is self-driving new energy vehicles, the second is household robots, the third is head-worn AR/VR glasses or helmets, the fourth is flexible display, and the fifth is 3D printing devices.
It is necessary to actively carry out forward-looking layout and take the initiative to form a number of domestic industrial chain clusters with global competitiveness around these key industries, and to form a number of leading OEM enterprises that can be distributed globally. In particular, chain enterprises that can form four or five new industries.
Yang Weimin: economic development is back on track, and the pace of economic recovery will be accelerated in the second half of the year.
Yang Weimin said that since March, China has had a second round of the epidemic, which is second only to the beginning of 2020, and the economy is in the most difficult period since the first quarter of 2020, and in some ways it is even more serious than at that time. In the first five months, the economy recovered normally from January to February, reversed from March to April, and the marginal improvement of the main indicators in May showed signs of recovery.
Looking forward to the late economic operation, we should not only face the difficulties squarely, but also strengthen our confidence. The current economic situation has not changed the fundamentals of China's strong economic resilience and long-term improvement, which can maintain steady and sustainable economic development in the long run. In the short term, the domestic epidemic situation has been alleviated and the prevention and control measures are more accurate. Economic development will be back on track, and if there is no impact of a large-scale epidemic in the second half of the year, the pace of economic recovery will accelerate.
Yang Weimin said that the decision-making arrangements of the CPC Central Committee and the policies and measures of the State Council are being implemented. Without the impact of a large-scale epidemic in the second half of the year, the pace of economic recovery will accelerate. He suggested that an incremental policy should be introduced according to the situation and the principles of refocusing, stepping up efforts, and long-term benefits.
Wang Yiming: fiscal policy needs to be strengthened. Consideration can be given to raising the deficit or issuing special treasury bonds.
Wang Yiming said that it is urgent to stabilize the macro-economic market and strive to become a regular employee in the second quarter, so that the economy can be stable in a reasonable range. As far as macroeconomic policy is concerned, prudent monetary policy is sufficient in aggregate. The next step can be studied through interest discounts to support financial institutions to carry out consumer and credit business. Through appropriate government subsidies, financial institutions appropriate profits to issue low-interest, interest-free consumer credit to promote consumption.
Pro-active fiscal policy needs to be strengthened. For example, can we appropriately raise the deficit level and adjust the budget? We can also consider increasing the issuance of special treasury bonds that do not include the deficit, so as to further promote the expansion of domestic demand.
Wang Yiming believes that there is still a large gap between supply and demand at present. Although infrastructure investment has maintained rapid growth under the support of the accelerated issuance of special bonds, it is still constrained by project reserves, the use of funds, the pressure on local fiscal revenue and expenditure, and the resolution of hidden debts. So whether infrastructure investment can hedge against the slowdown in real estate and manufacturing investment also depends on the strength of the next step of policy.
Liu Wei: consumption is expected in 2022, adhere to the expansion of consumption as the strategic starting point
Liu Wei believes that consumption may pick up in 2022, but affected by many factors, such as the prevention and control of the epidemic and the weakening of income expectations in the future, household consumption will still be weak, and it is still necessary to grasp the strategic starting point of expanding consumption in the future and make institutional arrangements in terms of supply and demand.
From the point of view of demand, institutional arrangements should be strengthened from many angles, such as promoting employment, strengthening vocational skills training, improving the allocation of resources, perfecting the tax system, improving social security, expanding middle-income groups, reasonably adjusting house prices, and reasonably improving social and public services. From the supply point of view, we should actively promote the supply-side structural reform, improve the supply quality, strengthen the protection of intellectual property rights, improve the market trading environment, eliminate the information asymmetry between the two sides of the transaction, and strive to reduce transaction costs.
Liu Wei said that in addition to expanding consumption, we also need to adhere to industrial transformation as the main direction, and seize two more prominent opportunities for industrial upgrading, one is the scientific and technological revolution and the industrial revolution represented by new technology, and the other is the green transformation dominated by carbon peak and carbon neutralization. We also need to persist in taking innovation-driven as the fundamental momentum, comprehensively coordinate the forces of all parties, allocate superior resources through the market mechanism, rationally distribute various technological links, promote the tackling of key core technologies in important areas, and optimize the upstream and downstream economic structures. we will promote the market-oriented reform of factors.
Liu Yuanchun: with the emergence of great global changes, China will become the center of the world's new energy and new economy.
Liu Yuanchun delivered a speech entitled "New opportunities for China's rise in Global stagflation". Liu Yuanchun believes that the opportunities brought to China by global inflation outweigh the challenges, and the great changes give China a great opportunity to further break the situation, and China should seize this round of global changes to do its own thing.
On the one hand, global stagflation will deal a heavy blow to the capitalist system. First, the US economy is likely to have a hard landing, not only reflected in the decline of GDP, but more importantly, the high US dollar index, high real estate price index and high stock market prices are likely to burst a round of bubbles. Second, the status of the US dollar in this round of impact, although will not be replaced, but will be affected. Moreover, Europe is not far behind.
Inflation in Europe is bound to lead to its super-tightening, which has led to a sharp rise in national debt yields. The euro zone's post-2008 European debt crisis is likely to repeat.
On the other hand, although stagflation will have a lot of impact on China, it will have a comprehensive release of China's supply capacity and provide a comprehensive opportunity for China's structural transformation.
"rising commodities and rising energy prices will indeed lead to a sharp rise in import costs and a series of pressures on China's economic growth. However, at present, the ability of China's economy to release and mitigate cost shocks has been greatly improved. Liu Yuanchun said, and this rise in global inflation is reflected not only in commodities, but also in cars, durable goods and some manufactured goods, which will be good for China.
Liu Yuanchun also pointed out that the increase in energy prices and the prices of basic products will greatly promote the comprehensive rise of China's new energy strategy and new strategic industrial system, promote the overall upgrading of China's economy, and help China become the center of the world's new energy and new economy.
Liu Yuanchun said that the handling of stagflation should be strategically re-examined. In the new round of stagflation, whether China's huge production potential can be effectively converted into supply capacity is our strategic focus. The new energy strategy should be further laid out and further seize the strategic high point. The pressure caused by rising hedging costs requires the introduction of corporate cost control policies, especially structural hedging policies should continue to be introduced. Trade policy needs to be repositioned and readjusted.
"We must take the initiative to carry out comprehensive reform, real reform, really break through the blocking point of the domestic great cycle, and readjust the innovation system, especially for traditional industrial parks. The strategic layout of simple extension to high-tech and new technology may need to be comprehensively examined and repositioned. "said Liu Yunchun.
Mao Zhenhua: continue to emphasize economic construction as the center and pay attention to the business environment
Mao Zhenhua said that five reasons contributed to the decline in investment expectations and the decline in entrepreneur confidence. The first is the decrease in demand and the difficulty of doing business, the second is the increase in cumulative enterprise costs, the third is that there are still many difficulties and problems in the operating environment of private enterprises, and the fourth is the misunderstanding of the policy direction including the third distribution. fifth, the weakening of the government's economic function and economic objectives.
Mao Zhenhua suggested that we should continue to emphasize economic construction as the center, re-regard GDP assessment as an important goal, grasp the business environment, set a good "traffic light" for capital, and stabilize the expectations of entrepreneurs. Pay attention to the operating environment of large private enterprises, take this group as the key object, and give full play to the special role of these enterprises in the national competition, so that they have confidence.
CMF report: China's real GDP growth rate is expected to be 2.7% in the first half of the year.
At the meeting, CMF released a report on China's macroeconomic analysis and forecast for the first half of the year. The report predicts that under the benchmark scenario, China's real GDP growth rate in the first half of the year will be 2.7%. In the second half of the year, with the great easing of epidemic factors, under the combined effect of comprehensive macro-policy efforts and the repair and adjustment of market entities, suppressed consumption and investment demand will be fully released, the industrial chain supply chain will be effectively restored, China's economy will rebound strongly, and real GDP growth in the second half of the year is expected to reach 6.4%.
For the whole year, taking into account the pull effect of China's economic adjustment and a package of policy measures, under the benchmark scenario, the real GDP growth rate in 2022 is expected to be 4.7%, 0.4 percentage points lower than the average growth rate in 2021 and nearly 2 percentage points higher than the global economic growth rate. Taking into account the depreciation of the RMB, the proportion of China's economy in the world in dollar terms is basically stable.
On the basis of the policies already issued, the report puts forward the following ten policy recommendations.
The first is to scientifically plan the growth targets and corresponding policy measures for the second half of the year. Taking into account the impact of a significant slowdown in economic growth in the second quarter, it is suggested that we adhere to the growth target of 55.5% for the whole year and add matching policy efforts, so as to establish the macro policy positioning and play an expected guiding role in the second half of the year.
The second is to grasp the window period of confidence boost brought about by the economic recovery in the new stage, take the "expectation management" from the medium-term perspective as the leader and important starting point of various macro policies, and carry out medium-term expansion and tool innovation to stabilize the economic package of policies and measures. Simple pre-adjustment and fine-tuning are no longer enough to deal with the increasing endogenous downside risks faced by the macro-economy.
Third, attach great importance to the macroeconomic consequences of the changes in the behavior patterns of various micro-market subjects under the impact of the epidemic, especially the "conservative" tendency of residents' consumption and enterprise investment behavior will lead to the failure of traditional policy means and pre-adjustment and fine-tuning mode. targeted policy measures must be taken to achieve a certain degree of strength.
Fourth, as China's economy enters a new stage of post-epidemic recovery, the focus of economic work should shift from short-term relief to the rapid expansion of effective demand, so as to achieve a smooth transition to market-oriented deep recovery. While rapidly implementing a package of policies and effective demand promotion strategy, we should adjust the focus of macroeconomic policies, from special epidemic relief to effective demand stimulation, and from supply-side support policies to demand-side expansion policies.
Fifth, the implementation of a more active and promising fiscal policy should be scientifically combined with a package of large-scale policies on the basis of the policies and measures already introduced, and efforts should be made to dredge the blockage points of the macroeconomic cycle. It is proposed to expand the budget arrangement of financial funds and focus on three "large-scale" policy programs aimed at consumption, investment and industry.
Sixth, a flexible and moderate monetary policy should give full play to its flexibility in the face of emergencies, cooperate with the implementation of the active fiscal policy in time and space, and give better play to the expected guiding role and policy multiplier effect. We will solve the problems of policy interest rate transmission and risk-sharing mechanism, and promote the downward trend of lending rates.
Seventh, adhere to the bottom line thinking, establish and use unconventional policy tools in advance. In the face of the development of the epidemic and the high degree of uncertainty of the international situation, we must not only take into account the downward pressure on the economy under the benchmark scenario, but also be aware of the extreme situations that may occur this year and next. In addition to a clear-cut shift from structural expansion to aggregate expansion, unconventional policy reserves need to be established and used in a timely manner as needed.
Eighth, all kinds of regulatory policies should be coordinated with counter-cyclical policies, focusing on the "construction of market order" rather than the swing of loosening and tightening, so as to prevent the accumulation of risks while avoiding the disorder of market expectations.
Ninth, policies on people's livelihood should support the bottom, improve the flexibility of employment and the coverage of unemployment insurance, and deal with the "double risks" brought about by the economic downturn and the impact on people's livelihood.
Tenth, to actively deal with the challenges of external risks, the key is to take the construction of a high-standard market economic system as the goal, promote the landing of the market-oriented reform of factors, launch a new round of structural reform guided by the formation of a great cycle of the domestic market, and continue to release institutional dividends. we will continue to consolidate the difficult achievements of China's reform and opening up.
CMF suggests that it can strengthen the policy combination and form a combination effect, including a 3 trillion yuan consumer subsidy program, a 3 trillion yuan infrastructure investment plan and a 3 trillion yuan industry support plan.
Edit / ping