Main points of investment
Hongdu of the aviation industry continues to promote the "three-year action on the reform of state-owned enterprises", and the company is expected to make profits.
1) on June 9, the official account of Hongdu Wechat of the aviation industry posted that "do not relax the goal of anchoring, pay close attention to reform and promote development", reviewed the experience and practices of the "three-year action on the reform of state-owned enterprises", the results of the reform, and looked forward to the follow-up reform.
2) experience and practice: 1, "debt-to-equity swap" to resolve debt risks; 2, improve market-oriented operation and employment mechanism to stimulate staff vitality; 3, strengthen supplier management to build Nanchang Aviation City Hongdu Industrial Park; 4, innovate R & D mechanism, stimulate R & D vitality.
3) effectiveness of the reform: compared with 2019, the revenue of Hongdu of the aviation industry in 2021 increased by 4.023 billion yuan, or 58.76%, and the net profit increased by 90 million yuan, or 35.86%. According to this calculation, the revenue of Hongdu of aviation industry in 2021 is about 10.9 billion yuan and the net profit is about 340 million yuan.
4) looking forward to the follow-up: 2022 is the year when the three-year reform action ends, ensuring that fundamental breakthroughs in important and difficult tasks are made in the first half of the year, that the main tasks are completed, and that the clean-up work is completed by the end of the year to achieve a comprehensive and successful conclusion.
5) the state promotes the reform of state-owned enterprises, with the goal of "stimulating the vitality of state-owned enterprises" and "improving the efficiency of state-owned capital". In 2022, when the three-year action of state-owned enterprise reform ends, reform measures such as "equity incentive" and "asset securitization" are expected to accelerate. The company is expected to benefit.
Related party transactions predict the rapid growth of the company's business scale in 2022.
The company's related sales account for a high proportion of revenue, which plays a guiding role in the growth of total revenue. The related sales in 2022 are 68% higher than the actual occurrence in 2021, and the related purchases are 75% higher than the actual occurrence in 2021. Both data indicate that the company's business scale will grow rapidly in 2022.
At present, the minimum market value aviation mainframe, trainer + defense products give birth to the largest variety of medium-and long-term flexibility.
The company's product teaching 10 is the most advanced trainer in China, and the key to the implementation of the new coaching system of "two machines and three levels" is to enjoy the double benefits of "industry growth + share enhancement". Defense products rely on the only air-to-surface missile research institute in the aviation industry, and are doubly driven by "the installation of new fighter aircraft plus increased consumption of actual combat training", so the demand is even more urgent. The revenue growth rate may surpass that of other aviation mainframes in the future, the superimposed profit margin will increase and the performance will be flexible.
Profit forecast and valuation: the compound growth rate of net profit is expected to exceed 50% in the next 3 years.
It is estimated that the company's net profit from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 260,000,000, an increase of 51%, 55%, and 47%, respectively, to 0.32, 0.50, 0.73, and 1.2 times of 94-61-41, PE and PS, respectively. Maintain the "buy" rating, taking into account the high flexibility and historical PS hub of future performance growth.
Risk hint: product delivery is not as expected; product volume scale effect is not as expected.