Guotai Junan issued a research report that under the current background, e-commerce promotion should focus on the following three dimensions: 1) the tracking of prosperity and the prediction of inflection points; 2) the trend of category and brand; and 3) the change of channel and competition pattern. The boom of 618 in 2022 is the continuation of the trend of consumer demand in the first half of the year, not the inflection point. From the two dimensions of demand and supply, the overall demand side of 618 is negatively affected by consumption capacity, and the supply-side platform promotion will is obviously different.

The bank pointed out that low valuation has gradually become a market consensus, the marginal improvement of the policy is clear, and from historical experience, the inflection point of the game policy is very flexible, and there is still room for repair at present; but what is more important is the basic situation, lean growth attaches importance to profits, profitability has improved significantly; the income end of May online social zero growth rate, offline implementation resumed. Recommended target:$Meituan-W (03690.HK) $, JD.com Group-SW (09618), BABA-SW (09988), Pinduoduo.