Hot news

• IMF slashed US GDP growth forecast: the road to avoiding recession is getting narrower

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) slashed its US economic growth forecast on Friday, cutting its 2022 growth forecast to 2.9 per cent from 3.7 per cent, from 2.3 per cent to 1.7 per cent in 2023, and forecasting a low growth rate of 0.8 per cent in 2024.

"the road for the US economy to avoid recession is getting narrower and narrower," Georgiyeva, president of IMF, said at a news conference. She pointed out that there is a high degree of uncertainty about the economic outlook. However, the agency also predicted that the US economy would "barely" avoid a recession.

• World Bank President: the Federal Reserve shrinks its balance sheet to help avoid recession

The president of the World Bank said the Fed's shrinking balance sheet would help avoid recession and that it would "take months, maybe even two years" for the US to bring inflation back to its year-on-year level of 2 per cent.

The Fed has a variety of tools, including shrinking tables, which "will return more money to the banks," Malpass said. "if banks have more capital, they can lend, or they can lend to non-bank sectors of the US economy. He said the influx of capital could help ease pressure on the supply chain.

• "I really bought it for the first time in nearly three weeks! Goldman Sachs Group trader interprets the rebound of US stocks on Friday

As US manufacturing PMI fell to a two-year low in June, expectations of an aggressive Fed rate hike cooled, and US stocks extended gains after opening higher across the board on Friday. Different from the market "dead cat rebound" argument, Goldman Sachs Group trader John Flood believes that Friday's rebound may be the beginning of the next potential rally.

John Flood thinks there are three reasons. First, the recent quantitative data verify that the risk appetite of the equity market is gradually picking up. Second, inflation expectations at the University of Michigan, which has attracted a lot of market attention, have been reduced. Third, the "low-quality compensation" of institutions that had sold US stocks crazily was also one of the factors driving the rebound in US stocks on June 24.

• Bank of America: s & P 500 valuation is still higher than historical average, firmly bullish on energy sector

Bank of America Corporation said that while the valuation of the S & P; has fallen, 14 of the 20 indicators that measure the S & P; still show that the index is still valued above the historical average. In terms of plate selection, the bank is a firm energy bullish and said it should avoid choosing non-essential consumer goods.

Savita Subramanian, a strategist at the bank, says the S & P is currently trading at 18.1 times earnings, compared with an average of 12.3 times at the bottom of a historic bear market.

• Us stocks are set for their worst first half in more than 50 years. Cash is king in downside risks.

The s & p 500 is down about 18% so far this year and is on track for its worst first half since 1970. Investors usually rely on bonds to offset declines in stocks in their portfolios, but bonds are not doing much better: the u.s. bond market, as measured by the Vanguard Total bond market index fund, is down 10.8% so far this year, the worst performance in modern history.

With investor expectations fluctuating between persistently high inflation and the economic downturn caused by the hawkish Fed, few believe that market volatility will disappear any time soon.

• Hedge fund bosses sound the alarm: inflation expectations have broken down and the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates to more than 5% next year.

Bill Ackerman (Bill Ackman), a billionaire investor and founder of hedge fund Pershing Square, INC., sounded the inflation alarm again, arguing that the Fed's determination to raise interest rates had not been taken seriously and hinted that interest rates could soar above 5 per cent next year.

Inflation is out of control and inflation expectations are out of anchor. Ackerman wrote on Twitter on Thursday. The sharp drop in short-term bond yields suggests investors do not believe Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will continue to raise interest rates to fight inflation.

• At the G7 summit, Britain, the United States, Japan and Canada took the lead in banning the import of Russian gold.

Leaders of the Group of Seven countries met in Germany on Sunday. The British government says the UK, the US, Japan and Canada will ban new gold imports from Russia. The move marks a further escalation of sanctions against Russia by the Western camp.

The G-7 summit, which has attracted much market attention, will be held from June 26 to 28, with topics such as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, climate change, energy crisis, food security and economic recovery. At this meeting, people paid more attention to the energy crisis. Since the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, commodities, including oil and natural gas, have risen to varying degrees, which has also led to inflation.

• Exxon Mobil Corp CEO warns: don't make a sudden energy transformation. Underinvestment will lead to high oil prices.

Exxon Mobil Corp CEO Darren Woods warned that the sudden transition to renewable energy would lead to society "paying a high price". The US government's policies fail to balance the current demand for cheap energy with the need to reduce emissions. He said underinvestment in the oil and gas industry is related to rising prices. Instead, Woods continues to call for carbon pricing to create market incentives to reduce emissions.

According to the American Automobile Association (AAA), the national average price of a gallon of gasoline in the United States is now close to $5, causing dissatisfaction and quarrels among all drivers.

• Monkeypox does not constitute a "public health emergency of international concern". World Health Organization (WHO) said that the follow-up development will still be concerned.

Cases of monkeypox have been reported in 50 countries around the world, and at least 3000 cases have been found so far. This has also attracted continued global attention after the World Health Organization (WHO) announced on the 25th (Saturday, US time) that the monkeypox outbreak does not constitute a "public health emergency of international concern" at this stage, but that the epidemic needs to be controlled to prevent further spread, while the epidemic should be closely monitored, and the committee recommended that the monkeypox outbreak be assessed again in a few weeks' time.

• The Supreme Court overturned the 1973 precedent that established the right to abortion, which could affect the November election

The U.S. Supreme Court on Friday overturned a landmark 1973 decision in Roe v. Wade recognizing that women's right to abortion is constitutionally guaranteed. This latest decision has been condemned by President Joe Biden and will greatly change the lives of millions of women in the United States and exacerbate deeply divided social tensions. The impact of the ruling will go far beyond the vigilance around the Supreme Court-it could reshape the electoral battleground that matters to the Democratic Party's Congress in November.

Review of US stocks

• Last Friday, worries about raising interest rates eased the superimposed FTSE Russell "reshuffle", and the Nasdaq and S & P both rose more than 3%.

By the close, the Dow was up 2.68 per cent at 31500.68, the S & P was up 3.06 per cent at 3911.74 and the Nasdaq was up 3.34 per cent at 11607.62. Last week, the Dow was up 5.39%, the S & P 500 was up 6.45%, and the Nasdaq was up 7.49%, all ending three consecutive weeks of declines.

Large-scale technology stocks and semiconductor stocks performed strongly, with Meta up more than 7%, Alphabet Inc-CL C, Netflix Inc and NVIDIA Corp up more than 5%, Tesla, Inc. more than 4%, Amazon.Com Inc and Microsoft Corp more than 3%.

Economic restart concept stocks rebounded collectively, Norwegian Cruises and Royal Caribbean Cruises rose more than 15%, while American Airlines and United Airlines rose more than 7%.

Hot Chinese stocks continued to rebound, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rising 4% and 11.1% last week. BeiGene, Ltd. and The9 Ltd rose nearly 14%, while BABA, New Oriental Education & Technology Group and NIO Inc. rose more than 4%.

• Us bank stocks rose sharply after successfully breaking through the Federal Reserve's "annual inspection"

Bank stocks rose on Friday as the Federal Reserve announced that banks undergoing annual stress tests passed smoothly. In the six major lines$Wells Fargo & Co (WFC.US) $It rose 7.55%.$Morgan Stanley (MS.US) $和$Goldman Sachs Group (GS.US) $The increase also reached 5%. But because the test results show$Bank of America Corporation (BAC.US) $The need for a higher-than-expected capital buffer could have an impact on buybacks and dividends, with the bank rising just 0.72 per cent on Friday.

• A large number of listed companies provide employees with abortion subsidies.

About half of the states in the United States are likely to define abortion as illegal as the U.S. High Court overturned the case of 1973 Luo v. Wade on Friday. In this regard, including$JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.US) $、$Walt Disney Company (DIS.US) $、$Netflix Inc (NFLX.US) $、$Johnson & Johnson (JNJ.US) $And other companies have indicated that they will provide affected employees with subsidies for the cost of going to other states for abortions. When the verdict was leaked in May$Microsoft Corp (MSFT.US) $、$Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) $And other companies have made similar promises.

• The delivery of Model Y performance version of Tesla, Inc. Berlin factory was delayed due to drive problems.

According to foreign media Drive Tesla Canada report$Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) $The performance version of the ModelY made at the Berlin Super Factory has been delayed several times because of a problem with its electric SUV drive unit. According to user feedback, the new car they were scheduled to deliver on the 25th and next week has been cancelled and delayed indefinitely. Previously, there were responses that the problem seemed to be solved through OTA, but now this does not seem to be the case. Some Tesla, Inc. employees said that the problem was related to the voltage converter on the drive unit. It is reported that this problem involves a replacement of parts that is currently not available.

• It is exposed that iPhone14 will continue to use Lightning port and transition to USB-C next year.

Mark Goolman, a technology journalist from Bloomberg, wrote on June 26 that this year,$Apple Inc (AAPL.US) $All new iPhone releases in the fall will continue to use the Lightning interface, but he expects to transition to USB-C; in 2023, while the new entry-level iPad released this fall will be equipped with a USB-C interface, A14 chip and 5G support. With regard to the M2 chip, which was officially released in June, Gurman said he was told that Apple Inc's hybrid reality head display would be equipped with M2 chip and 16G memory, while Apple Inc was already developing the M3 chip, which was planned to be used as early as next year.

• Zendesk agrees to $10 billion proposal for privatization

Customer service software and sales CRM developers$Zendesk (ZEN.US) $It was announced on Friday that it agreed to accept the $77.50 per share offer from PE such as Hellman&Friedman and Permira, equivalent to a total price of $10.2 billion. Zendesk rose 27.99% to $74.17 on Friday on the news.

• Juul E-cigarette successfully suspends the implementation of FDA ban

After FDA ordered on Thursday that the brand of e-cigarette Juul should not be sold in the United States, the company applied to the US Federal Court of Appeal for a stay of execution on Friday and was granted approval. However, the judge also stressed that the temporary suspension is to give the court time to listen to the arguments of both parties, not to decide on the case itself. Affected by the news, US tobacco stocks rose on Friday, with British American Tobacco PLC up more than 3%, Altria Group Inc up more than 2%, and Global Tobacco and Philip Morris International Inc up nearly 2%.

• Truist: Buffett has a "good chance" to buy Western Oil, raising his target price to $93

$Western Oil (OXY.US) $It closed 2.55% higher at $57.52 on Friday. Neal Dingmann, an analyst at Truist, said Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway had a "good chance" of buying the company, raising its target price to $93 and maintaining its buy rating. Berkshire Hathaway had bought another 9.6 million shares of western oil, raising its common stake to 16.3 per cent.

• The second largest oil company in the United States sells its headquarters park

The second largest oil company in the United States$Chevron Corp (CVX.US) $It was confirmed on Friday that the company plans to sell its Chevron Corp Park in California, a landmark that has been the company's global headquarters for the past two decades, and will then look for office leases from nearby areas, so the company's headquarters will continue to be in California. But the company also said it would provide resettlement subsidies to employees who are willing to be transferred to the Houston campus. Chevron Corp stressed that the current real estate market provides an opportunity to resize office space to meet the needs of headquarters staff.

Last Friday, US stock turnover TOP20

The Prospect of Hong Kong City

• Last Friday, Beishui increased its position in automobile stocks, and Li Auto Inc. was bought more than HK $900 million.

Last Friday, southbound funds bought a net HK $3 billion, which has been bought for 12 consecutive days. Li Auto Inc.-W, Geely Automobile and Xiexin Technology received a net purchase of HK $914 million, HK $524 million and HK $480 million respectively. China Mobile Limited ranks first in net sales, with a value of HK $441 million.

• $Li Auto Inc.-W (02015.HK) $Ideal L9 order exceeds 30,000 vehicles

Li Auto Inc.-W announcement, on June 24, 2022 (US Eastern time), China's new energy vehicle market leader Li Auto Inc. ("Li Auto Inc." or "Company") (NASDAQ: LI; Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing: 2015) announced that since its smart flagship SUV ideal L9 opened bookings, orders have exceeded 30000 vehicles within 72 hours, demonstrating the outstanding attractiveness of the ideal L9 to home users. The deposit of RMB 5000 for booking ideal L9 can be refunded within a limited time.

• China Vocational Education (01756.HK) $Guangzhou Huali College 2022 University2023 year General College enrollment increased significantly

China vocational education announced that the number of general college enrollment places in Guangzhou Huali College, a company's undergraduate college, increased significantly in the 2023 academic year. The number of general college enrollment places in 2022 University2023 increased by 199.7%, to 414,637.

• $Jiahe Bio-B (06998.HK) $Enter into a cooperative development agreement with Aibo Biology to jointly develop mRNA products and related drugs

Jiahe Bio-B announced that the company has entered into a cooperative development agreement with Suzhou Aibo Biotechnology Co., Ltd. to jointly develop globally innovative mRNA products and related drugs. Under the joint development agreement, the group's biological antibody development platform will be combined with Abbott's mRNA technology platform to enable the group and Abbott to jointly develop mRNA drugs for tumor therapy.

Focus today

Key words:The annual profit rate of industrial enterprises above scale in China in May, compared with 5% in the United States.The initial monthly order rate of durable goods and the change of EIA crude oil inventory in the United States this week.

Monday,Economic dataChina will announce the annual profit rate of China's industrial enterprises above its size in May; the initial monthly rate of durable goods orders in the United States in May and changes in EIA crude oil inventories in the week ended June 17.

In addition, the United States Energy Information Administration updated the delayed release of data.

Incident aspectInvestors can follow the "SPARK 2022" Tencent game conference held by Tencent Company.

Financial report$ou Shudan (00973.HK) $will release results on the same day, while $TRIP COM GRP LTD (TCOM.US) $and $Nike Inc (NKE.US) $will release results after trading.

In terms of new sharesThe purchase of $Tuya Inc.-W (02391.HK) $new shares ends.

Niuniu morning reading:

Rational analysis from the predicament, enhance cognition, obtain energy; return to the heart from the pressure, improve the mind and bearing; reposition from the limitation, improve the vision and pattern.

-- Munger