Zhitong Financial APP learned that open source securities released a research report saying that according to the "618" e-commerce boost in 2022, the bank believes that live e-commerce is still on the fast track. Based on the fact that live e-commerce shortens the flow of information and decision-making, and has the advantage of being more efficient in terms of "people, goods and markets", the bank judges that its penetration of the e-commerce market will continue to increase, the market scale may continue to grow, and the platform, head MCN institutions and acting operators may benefit more in the process of changing the distribution pattern of its industrial chain.Suggest active layout and focus on recommendation$Kuaishou Technology-W (01024.HK) $, worth buying (300785.SZ), one net and one creation (300792.SZ), the beneficiaries include New Oriental Education & Technology Group online (01797) and Saturday (002291.SZ).
The main points of open source securities are as follows:
2022 changes in "618" activities: increased discounts, focusing on rescuing small and medium-sized businesses, and video number joining for the first time
Compared with "618" and "Singles Day" in 2021, the full reduction threshold and intensity of "618" platforms in 2022 are higher, or attract consumers to increase purchase demand. It is worth noting that Douyin temporarily adjusted its full reduction setting to be on a par with JD.com and Tmall, or reflected that Douyin paid more attention to it and more actively participated in it. Under the general trend of reducing costs and increasing efficiency, all platforms do not hold "618" parties, or aim to reduce marketing costs and improve ROI. "Rookie" video number for the first time to enter the e-commerce promotion, has not yet started promotional activities for users, mainly focusing on merchant-side traffic incentives. In addition, due to the repeated impact of the epidemic on small and medium-sized businesses in 2022, various platforms undertake social responsibility to actively alleviate hardship, provide support in terms of flow and logistics, mobilize merchants to participate in promoting enthusiasm, and help get out of the haze of consumption under the epidemic.
2022 "618" activity trend: the demand for rigid hoarding increased after the epidemic, and live e-commerce is still increasing rapidly.
According to star map data, during the "618" period in 2022, the GMV of the whole network was 695.9 billion yuan, an increase of about 8.2% over the same period last year, and the growth rate may slow significantly. Comprehensive e-commerce GMV reached 582.6 billion yuan, only 0.7% year-on-year growth, Tmall firmly ranked first, the competition pattern is relatively stable; category: rigid demand for high-frequency washing and cleaning GMV increased by 33.1% year-on-year, convenient fast food hoarding demand increased significantly, GMV increased by 27.5% year-on-year; consumer non-rigid demand decreased, beauty and skin care and perfume makeup GMV decreased compared with the same period last year. Live e-commerce GMV reached 144.5 billion yuan, an increase of 124.1% over the same period last year, an increase of 95.9% compared with "Singles Day" in 2021. Diantao only ranked third ("Singles Day" ranked first in 2021). Sub-platform point of view: (1) Tmall: the popularity of pre-sale may decline, and the trend of upgrading the quality of life is becoming more and more obvious. (2) JD.com: the advantage category (home appliances and 3C digital) has a bright performance, and the advantage of the supply chain brings a better shopping experience. (3) Douyin: the enthusiasm of merchants to participate in the warm-up period is high, and the performance of domestic brands may be more prominent. (4) Kuaishou Technology: the "four big programs" strategy continued to advance, and the head anchor's balls firmly ranked first.
Prospect: the pattern of live e-commerce has changed, the differentiated studio has become a dark horse, and the opportunity for the development of store broadcasting has reappeared.
Taobao super head anchors have suspended live broadcast one after another, and the collection of people with goods has been significantly reduced, which may be good for Kuaishou Technology and Douyin melon, and give people in the middle waist opportunities for development, and the live broadcast pattern is changing. In this gap, the Oriental selection studio under New Oriental Education & Technology Group online has emerged as a new force, with the mode of bilingual live broadcast and imparting knowledge while imparting knowledge is refreshing, and the studio with a more sense of knowledge quickly gains a large number of fans, and high-quality content may be the key to breakthrough. The bank believes that as talent decapitalizes and control returns to live e-commerce platforms and MCN institutions, its profitability is expected to improve. At the same time, in the future, for the sake of avoiding risks and better settling fans, or more inclined to reduce the dependence on talent, the logic of brand self-broadcast is further strengthened, and the choice of agent operators is the way with higher performance and price.
Risk Tips:The risk of live e-commerce policy change, the risk of increasingly fierce competition in the operation industry, and so on.