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观点 | 估值底部,重新审视中概互联网投资价值

Opinion | At the bottom of the valuation, re-examining the value of China's Internet investment

富途綜合 ·  Jun 24, 2022 12:00

This article is based on CSC FINANCIAL CO.,LTD 's "change and immutability: re-examining the Investment Map of Internet companies", analysts Sun Xiaolei and Cui Shifeng

For Internet companies, due to the risk of overseas macro uncertainty, early anti-monopoly policy pressure, superimposed epidemic affecting performance and other factors, the Internet has experienced a period of valuation and fundamentals.

Citic Construction Investment believes that the pre-pressure is gradually stabilizing, predictability is increasing, in which the policy has stabilized, and with the macro and epidemic recovery, the fundamentals will also be repaired. The Internet is expected to have a "policy bottom" + "performance bottom" in the second quarter.

Recently, China probably set off a wave of rebound in Internet stocks, which closed as of Thursday.NASDAQ China Golden Dragon Index (.HXC.US) $It has risen by 6.83% during the week.

The Internet sector of Hong Kong stocks also strengthened this morning, with the market closed at noon.$BABA-SW (09988.HK) $Increase by more than 5%$Tencent (00700.HK) $$Meituan-W (03690.HK) $Increase by more than 1%$JD.com Group-SW (09618.HK) $$Baidu-SW (09888.HK) $It's up more than 2%.

At a time when Internet stocks are suspected of being at the bottom, it may be necessary to re-examine their investment value. Citic Construction Investment believes that the strategic investment of Internet companies plays a supporting role in the medium-and long-term development of the company. this article will specifically sort out the strategic investment situation, investment style and strategic growth points of the seven Chinese Internet giants in order to provide reference for investors.

The strategic investment of Internet companies is of great significance, and the investment value should be re-examined at the bottom of valuation.

Citic Construction Investment believes that the strategic investment of Internet companies plays a supporting role in medium-and long-term development, specifically reflected in:

1) can strengthen the advantage of the main business and consolidate the moat of the company

2) horizontal and vertical expansion based on the main business and making use of the company's traditional advantages.

3) stimulate new strategic imagination, explore the second growth curve, and turn it into corporate upward options.

Overseas Internet CVC gene in-depth development history, leading industrial innovation and technological revolution

The investment layout of overseas Internet giants is of great research value to the development of Chinese Internet enterprises.Reviewing the overall layout of overseas Internet investment, we find that the overall trend revolves around the following three main lines:

1) focus on the "horizontal expansion + vertical deep ploughing" of the main business, transform the products / contents, and strengthen their own moat.

2) the consumer Internet and the industrial Internet permeate each other, and the second growth curve is gradually clear in the strategic change.

3) the wave of industrialization of platform companies is coming, seizing cutting-edge science and technology and strengthening industrial coordination.

Looking back at China, we can see that the three main lines of overseas Internet companies are reflected in the development path and future forward-looking layout of Chinese Internet companies. Later, we will sort out the CVC investment situation, investment style and strategic growth points of seven Chinese Internet companies, and use investment data and cases to examine the long-term investment value of the companies from a forward-looking perspective.

We use the CVC investment framework of Chesbrough, a professor of Harvard University, to sort out the investment strategies of domestic Internet companies. The model divides CVC investment into four ways: driven investment, supplementary investment, option investment and passive investment.

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This paper will use this framework to sort out the CVC investment situation, investment style and strategic growth points of seven Chinese Internet companies respectively.

  • Supplementary investment is strategically aggressive, represented by Tencent, BABA and byte:

Tencent firmly grasps the mobile social portal and actively expands the way of cash flow through strategic investment in the Internet.

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BABA focuses on domestic demand, globalization, cloud computing / data intelligence, highly efficient layout of forward-looking areas, innovation in the consumer Internet and deep ploughing in the industrial Internet, constantly proving the value of the company.

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Byte sits on the first flow port of the short video track, using capital for the expansion of weapons in many cash bull tracks.

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  • The meaning of driven investment attack is weakened, and the defensive nature is highlighted, which is of great significance to the current Internet enterprises that have changed from growth to value, among which Kuaishou Technology, Meituan and JD.com are represented:

Under the influence of regulation, Kuaishou Technology actively explores the realization of traffic flow to new business type, which is represented by the e-commerce format brought by the economic stability of the old railway and the layout in the field of pan-entertainment such as skits and games.

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Meituan strengthens his position in the new retail industry through the strategy of "retail + technology". The main investment focuses on the field of local life.

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JD.com has long worked hard in the supply chain through investment and iteration, took the current epidemic as an opportunity to strengthen his position in the e-commerce industry, and actively used the experience brought about by strategic investment to explore new possibilities of JD.com 's omni-channel retail.

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The investment strategies represented by Meituan, Kuaishou Technology and JD.com all belong to strategic investments that are highly related to the main business and pursue strategic significance.

  • Option investment can provide strategic options to the parent company and expand new business models, represented by Baidu, Inc. and XIAOMI:

Baidu, Inc. stabilizes the basic market of mobile ecology and has a firm layout in smart cloud, self-driving and other businesses, and is expected to be the first to find a growth curve with great potential in big companies.

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XIAOMI All in car building, with strategic investment and resource empowerment way to successfully build their own car ecological chain, in line with the industry development trend to make full use of their own advantages to cut into the new blue sea.

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Risk Tips:Policy risk; business cooperation risk; overseas market uncertainty

Edit / Viola

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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