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纳指涨超1%!策略师称市场持续反弹需满足这个条件

The NASDAQ rose more than 1%! Strategists say this condition must be met for the market to continue to rebound

Wind ·  Jun 23, 2022 23:09

Source: Wind

U.S. stock indexes rose across the board on Thursday as the market tried to recover some of its previous losses, even as Wall Street was still weighing the risk of recession and Treasury yields fell sharply.

The s & p 500 rose 0.68%, and the Dow Jones industrial average rose 130 points, or 0.43%. The Nasdaq composite index rose 1.1%.

Todd Jones, chief investment officer of Gratus Capital, said: "the rebound will definitely imply any kind of temporary reversal, accompanied by the current oversold situation."

"for us to think whether this will be a more lasting rebound, we have to see not only some improvement in economic data, but I think more specifically, an improvement in inflation. "

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will speak to members of Congress on monetary policy for the second day in a row on Thursday. Powell said Wednesday that the Fed is "firmly committed" to reducing inflation. He also pointed out that recession is a "possibility", a concern that has been dragging down Wall Street.

"A recession is more likely," said Dan Greenhaus, chief strategist at Solus alternative Asset Management. "this shows the extent of the austerity measures that the Fed will have to take now, while in previous periods, the Fed did not take tightening measures, when they might be able to avoid some of the problems that might arise. "

He added: "Unfortunately, the economy will be more painful than people expected at least six months ago, but there is a growing recognition that this may be what is going to happen." "

UBS is the latest investment bank to raise the US recession rate to 69 per cent this week, citing poor performance of housing, industrial production and capital goods data released last week. "We are now watching whether there will be further negative news to follow," UBS said in a report on Thursday. "

Citigroup Inc (Citigroup) raised the likelihood of a US recession to 50 per cent on the grounds that falling consumer demand could make it harder for the Federal Reserve to achieve a soft landing.

Goldman Sachs Group (Goldman Sachs) said the likelihood of an economic downturn was "higher and more advanced" than before. In a report on Monday, the company raised its forecast for a US recession next year to 30 per cent from 15 per cent. Over the next two years, that probability rose from 35% to 48%.

Initial jobless claims fell by a seasonally adjusted 2000 to 229000 in the week ended June 18, although the job market remained tight, the Labor Department said on Thursday.

The forecast value of S&P Global Inc. 's composite purchasing managers' index fell to 51.9 in June from 54.8 in May, indicating a marked slowdown in economic activity growth.

Peter Mccallum, interest rate strategist at Mizuho, said: "one of the main topics recently is recession risk, which is how the market trades, and these PMI data just give the bond market an additional reason to move higher in this situation. "

"I still think it is difficult for yields to continue to fall when inflation data have not peaked, but this is a harbinger that we think yields will fall further in the fourth quarter, when the economy begins to slow. "

Earlier, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell told Congress that the Fed was "firmly committed" to cooling soaring inflation. Market participants are increasingly concerned that aggressive monetary tightening could plunge the world's largest economy into recession.

Edit / lydia

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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