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隐秘的角落:欧美银行业危机正在酝酿?

Hidden corner: the banking crisis in Europe and America is brewing?

華爾街見聞 ·  Jun 23, 2022 17:14

The Fed's aggressive rate hikes have exacerbated the economic pain, with a number of credit risk indicators showing pressure and quantitative tightening that could further weaken liquidity in the financial system and worsen market conditions.

With the Fed's aggressive rate hikes adding to the economic pain, a number of credit risk indicators showing pressure and a new round of quantitative tightening in Europe and the US, the banking crisis appears to be brewing.

On Wednesday, indicators such as Ted spreads, banking CDS and dollar cross-currency basis swaps showed liquidity tightening. The Ted spread, which measures the gap between the overnight index swap rate (OIS-3M), a three-month maturity, and three-month Treasury yields, rose to 0.5239, its highest level since the 2008 financial crisis, indicating a rise in risk aversion among investors and a tightening of supply of funds in the market.

At the same time, the banking CDS index hit a new high, indicating a surge in the risk of default. Earlier, credit default swap spreads for JPMorgan Chase & Co, Goldman Sachs Group, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup Inc, Wells Fargo & Co and Bank of America Corporation approached a two-year high on Thursday.

In addition, demand for the dollar continues to rise and cross-currency basis swaps, which measure dollar liquidity, have fallen sharply, meaning dollar liquidity is being drained.

Potential credit risks are rising as the Fed gets tougher and fears of a recession intensify in the US market. The same is true of European markets, Goldman Sachs Group pointed out in the report, and as the ECB embarks on the road of monetary normalization, European liquidity may ebb.

Knowing that there is news that Credit Suisse, a big European bank, may be acquired. Earlier, the Swiss financial blog Inside Paradeplatz said that State Street planned to buy Credit Suisse for 9 Swiss francs a share. After that, Credit Suisse raised money by issuing bonds at an interest rate of nearly 10%.

In addition, the contraction table officially launched by the Fed this month cannot be ignored, a process known as quantitative tightening that could further weaken liquidity in the financial system and worsen market conditions. UBS points out that tighter liquidity is becoming a serious headwind for medium-term returns in the stock market.

'now that the quantitative tightening policy has officially begun, we have seen a continued loss of reserves over the past few months, 'said Jordan Jackson, a global market strategist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. He also expects Ted spreads to widen further.

Some strategists worry that these may point to "subsurface pressure". Ryan Detrick, a senior strategist at LPL Financial, points out that the overall foundation of the global economy is quite unstable and could be quite dangerous over the next six months.

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The translation is provided by third-party software.


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