In the first half of 2022, in the three major sectors of global shipping, the dry bulk shipping market was hot, and companies made good achievements one after another. the oil transportation market, which had been silent for a year, finally ushered in a bright willow, while the container transportation market began to show weakness.

As a vital part of the global supply chain, the trend of the global shipping industry in the coming period of time will naturally become the focus of investors. In this regard, HSBC recently held the 16th annual transport and logistics conference, to analyze and forecast the above sectors.

According to HSBC's forecastThe worst of the oil transport market is over, and the oil industry may have a glorious moment as supply weakens and demand recovers.

Demand for dry bulk cargo is likely to continue to recover in the second half of this year, and tight supply chains in container transport may still push up container freight rates.

Oil transportation:The worst is over.

As the conflict between Russia and Ukraine interferes with the global supply chain and global energy demand recovers from the epidemic, freight rates for all types of oil tankers have risen significantly since the beginning of this year, and oil shipping companies will rebound in profits in the future.

Growth in tanker supply is likely to remain sluggish.

The data showed that orders grew at an all-time low in June as tanker demand was weak after a sluggish year for oil shipments in 2021. For a long time, the global tanker fleet is aging. At present, about 8% of the ships are more than 20 years old and will be scrapped naturally in the next few years.

In addition, in view of the uncertainty of global carbon neutralization policies and insufficient shipyard capacity, new ship orders by 2024 / 2025 have begun to decline.

On the demand side, the continued recovery of global energy demand will facilitate the recovery of the oil transportation market.

On the one hand, the lifting of epidemic restrictions has pushed up global demand for aviation and other fuels, and OPEC is expected to gradually increase oil production, according to HSBC. It is worth mentioning that while high oil prices may erode oil demand, at the same time, high oil prices can also stimulate oil producers to expand production capacity.

On the other hand, as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to lead to changes in shipping routes, voyage mileage is significantly lengthened, oil transportation market demand will be supported.

Dry bulk: continue to recover in the second half of the year

The HSBC industry conference group expects that demand for dry bulk shipping will continue to recover in the second half of this year, or offset the negative impact of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, spurred by seasonal factors and higher demand from China.

Statistically, the Baltic dry index has risen more than 13 per cent in the past week and more than 15 per cent in the past six months, driven by Cape of good Hope ships.

Container rates may continue to rise

Due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the uncertainty of the epidemic, HSBC believes that the problem of global container traffic congestion will continue into the second half of 2022, with more than 5% of the world's container fleet still trapped in ports.

The operation of China's export container transport market remains stable. As of June 17, 2022, the comprehensive freight rate index of Shanghai export containers released by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange was 4221.96 points, down 0.3% from the previous month.

However, in Europe and the United States, the shortage of container transport will continue to worsen.

In addition, as demand picks up seasonally and China's demand for commodities continues to recover, American consumption of goods continues to grow steadily, which will continue to push up container demand.