Last night, China Evergrande Group issued a notice on the guidelines for resumption of trading, saying that he was actively promoting the restructuring work. As announced on January 26th, 2022, the company is expected to announce the preliminary restructuring plan before the end of July.

Evergrande's confirmation of restructuring signals has undoubtedly brought optimism to the market.

With the recent real estate sales data in May and the first half of June, the industry as a whole showed a pick-up trend, so the real estate sector also achieved a big rebound at the bottom this week.

Policy gift package: the central government intensively deploys stable real estate policies to support local policies based on cities.

In terms of subdivision, CITIC believes that the first is the policy support of the central government. In early March, the Banco Insurance Regulatory Commission and the Central Bank jointly issuedNotice on strengthening the Financial Services of New CitizensTo support the reasonable purchase demand of 300 million new citizens, emphasize the optimization of the supervision of commercial housing pre-sale funds, and increase housing consumption support around the "county area".

The interest rate floor for the first home mortgage is adjusted to LPR minus 20 basis points. Suppose the interest rate of the first home loan is arranged at 4.25%, which is higher than the average interest rate of 5.16% before the implementation of the policy.Take 1 million yuan of housing loan and 30 years of equal principal and interest repayment as an example, the total interest has been reduced from 970000 yuan to 770000 yuan, saving 200000 yuan.

Since the beginning of the year, more than 150 cities have explored measures to relax the control of the property market, and the area has been gradually expanded from third-tier cities to quasi-first-tier cities.The fundamentals of the policy have gradually improved.

Sales side: sales decline narrowed in MayMonth-on-month growth in the first half of June

On the other hand, Shenwan Hongyuan analysis believes that from the perspective of sales indicators, the monthly data in May is better than that in April.

Among them, the single month of commercial housing in MaySales areaDown 31.8% from the same period last yearAn increase of 7.2 over April%。Commercial housing monthly in MaySales volume1.0548 trillion yuan, down 37.7% from the same period last yearUp 8.9 from April%。5月Residential sales areaMonth-on-month decline of 36.6% compared with the same period last yearUp 5.7 from April%。

In May, sales maintained a double-digit decline compared with the same period last year, and the decline in sales was narrowed. Weak sales are mainly due to: 1) the decline in income expectations led to a decline in purchasing power under the background of a weak economy; 2) the shortage of funds led to the reduction of housing prices and pessimistic market expectations; 3) the recent repeated COVID-19 epidemic also limited the recovery of sales; 4) sales in the first half of 2001 are still in a high base stage.

Better yet, in June, data from Southwest Securities showed that the cumulative sales area of 32 key cities in the first half of June (as of the 16th) was-30% year-on-year.Month-on-month + 54%, warmed up by policy stimulus and holidays，The growth rate is expected to improve under the effect of a low base in July.

Among them, first-tier cities are-36% of the same period last year.Quarter to quarter ratio + 150%Second-tier year-on-year-22%Chain ratio + 51%Third and fourth line compared with the same period last year-42%Month-on-month ratio + 28%.

Housing enterprises in major cities presentWarm upthe posture,The main reason is that the recent policy stimulus has begun to appear, according to the survey, the number of people looking at houses in most cities has increased significantly; on the other hand, the promotion activities during the holidays (Dragon Boat Festival) pulled some second-tier cities weak.

From the perspective of specific cities: 1) first-tier cities: the Shanghai market recovered somewhat after the opening of the market, with Shenzhen and Beijing growing by 54% and 18% respectively compared with the previous month.

2) second-tier cities: except Xuzhou-15%, there are different degrees of growth, of which Qingdao, Suzhou and Jinan are + 139%, 121% and 128%, respectively.

3) third-and fourth-tier cities: the performance is different, of which Yangzhou and Lianyungang are outstanding, with a month-on-month ratio of + 141% and 139%, respectively.

Institutional suggestion

Southwest Securities analysis believes that the plate valuation is at a low level recently, from the comprehensive consideration of capital security and rate of return, it is suggested that appropriate additional allocation, the current plate should pay attention to three main lines of investment:

1) Development enterprises:Poly Real Estate Group (00119.HK) $、$New Town Development (01030.HK) $、$China Resources Land (01109.HK) $、$Longfor Group (00960.HK) $$China Vanke (02202.HK) $、$Xuhui Holdings Group (00884.HK) $、Jianfa International Group (01908.HK) $等；

2) property management enterprises:$Country Garden Services Holdings (06098.HK) $$China Resources Mixc Lifestyle Services (01209.HK) $$Xuhui Yongsheng Service (01995.HK) $等；

3) Real estate brokerage enterprises:$KE Holdings Inc. (BEKE.US) $等。