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观点 | 房地产销售拐点到了吗?

Opinion | Has real estate sales reached an inflection point?

債券池 ·  Jun 21, 2022 14:09

Source: bond pool

Author: Chi Guangsheng

Original title: "has the inflection point of real estate sales arrived?" "

About 90% of the first-and second-tier cities have reached an inflection point. Combined with historical experience and the current market environment, the inflection point of real estate sales across the country will have to wait another 2-4 months.

What do you think of the pick-up in sales in 10 cities and 30 large and medium-sized cities since June?

Since June, commercial housing sales in 30 large and medium-sized cities have shown obvious signs of recovery, but the overall recovery shows a differential recovery rather than a full recovery and the third line is still weak. For a long time, 10x30 large and medium-sized cities have a good synchronization with the peak time of national sales, but the lead in the bottoming time of national sales tends to weaken after 2014, and the leading role is no longer obvious after 2016. therefore, it is not easy for us to infer when the national sales will hit bottom from the bottoming time of 10x30 large and medium-sized cities.

What are the characteristics of first-and second-tier cities before the national sales bottom?

(1) about 90% of the first-and second-tier cities have reached inflection points.

(2) sales in first-and second-tier cities that have turned an inflection point account for about 1 / 3 of national sales or about 95% of sales in all first-and second-tier cities.

What are the chances of national sales bottoming out in June?

According to the May data, only about 37% of the first-and second-tier cities may have sales inflection points, and these first-and second-tier cities only account for about 7.5% of national sales or about 39% of all first-and second-tier cities. As a result, significantly lower than the data indicators for 2008-2009 and 2014-2015 indicate that national sales are less likely to bottom out in June.

When is the national sales expected to bottom out?

From 2008-2009 to 2014-2015, the time lag from policy relaxation to sales bottoming out in major second-tier cities is concentrated in 3-6 months, and at the national level it is about 4-6 months. The current round of local "four limits" relaxation focuses on 2022M3-M5, and the central bank's "515 New deal" lowered the lower limit of first-home interest rates. Combined with the current real estate market environment and taking into account the base factors of 2021, it is expected that the inflection point of national commercial housing sales in 2022 may occur from August to October.

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Since June, commercial housing sales in 10 major cities and 30 large and medium-sized cities have shown obvious signs of recovery, and the transaction area of the property market in first-and second-tier cities such as Wuhan, Suzhou and Qingdao has been rapidly enlarged. So, how should we view the pick-up in sales in 10 cities and 30 large and medium-sized cities? What are the chances of national sales bottoming out in June? When is the national sales expected to bottom out?

Recently, sales in large and medium-sized cities have picked up significantly.

Under the influence of factors such as the continuous relaxation of regulation and control policies and the relatively good basic conditions of hot first-and second-tier cities, there has been a marked increase in the number of first-and second-tier cities with improved commercial housing sales in May, and since June, signs of recovery in some first-and second-tier cities have become more obvious. the backlog of rigid demand restricted by stricter regulation and control policies has just begun to release rapidly.

However, from the perspective of 10 major cities and 30 large and medium-sized cities, the whole shows the characteristics of differential recovery rather than full recovery, and the third line is still relatively weak, such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Wuhan, Suzhou, Qingdao and so on. Shenzhen, Hangzhou, Nanjing, Chengdu, Fuzhou and other performance is average, Yangzhou, Huizhou, Shaoguan and other third and fourth lines are still generally weak.

After 2016, the leading effect of 30 large and medium-sized cities on the bottoming out of national sales has greatly weakened after 2016.

Before 2014, sales in 10 amp 30 large and medium-sized cities were basically a simultaneous indicator of national sales, such as bottoming out in February 2012 and peaking at the same time in February 2013. From 2014 to 2016, the peak time of sales in 30 large and medium-sized cities was basically synchronized with that of national sales, but the time of reaching the bottom was about 10 months ahead of national sales. After 2016, the differentiation between the first and second lines and the third and fourth lines has intensified, and the leading role of large and medium-sized cities in bottoming out in national sales has been greatly weakened. for example, sales in large and medium-sized cities have basically bottomed out in October 2017, but national sales have been fluctuating down to 2019H2 before they tend to stabilize in stages.

It can be seen that the peak time of sales in large and medium-sized cities and national sales has a good synchronization, but the lead in the time of bottoming out in national sales tends to be weakened. at present, it is not easy for us to guess when the national sales will hit bottom from the time of bottoming out in large and medium-sized cities.

What are the characteristics of first-and second-tier cities before the national sales bottom?

In terms of the number of cities, before the national sales bottomed out in 2008-2009, 22 of the 23 first-and second-tier cities available had already reached inflection points, accounting for 96 per cent of the total. Before the national sales bottomed out in 2014-2015, 32 of the 35 first-and second-tier cities with available data had already reached an inflection point, accounting for 91 per cent. In other words, before the national sales inflection point, about 90% of the first-and second-tier cities have already reached the inflection point.

In terms of sales share, before national sales bottomed out in 2008-2009, sales in first-and second-tier cities accounted for 42 per cent of national sales, accounting for 99 per cent of sales in all first-and second-tier cities. Before national sales bottomed out in 2014-2015, sales in first-and second-tier cities accounted for 34 per cent of national sales and 96 per cent of sales in all first-and second-tier cities. In other words, before the national sales inflection point, the first-and second-tier cities that need the inflection point accounted for about 1% of national sales or about 95% of all first-and second-tier cities' sales.

What are the chances of national sales bottoming out in June?

Based on the above analysis, 10 shock 30 large and medium-sized cities may not be easy to predict when national sales will bottom out, but before national sales hit bottom, first-and second-tier cities will show two more prominent characteristics: (1) about 90% of first-and second-tier cities have inflection points. (2) sales in first-and second-tier cities that have turned an inflection point account for about 1 / 3 of national sales or about 95% of sales in all first-and second-tier cities.

According to the May data, only about 37 per cent of first-and second-tier cities may have sales inflection points, accounting for only about 7.5 per cent of national sales or about 39 per cent of all first-and second-tier cities' sales. much lower than the data indicators for 2008-2009 and 2014-2015 indicate a low probability of bottoming out in June.

When will national sales bottom out?

From 2008 to 2009, it took Shanghai four months to relax the three restrictions to the bottom of sales, Beijing and Guangzhou bottomed out before the relaxation, major second-tier cities took 3-5 months, and the country spent four months. From 2014 to 2015, from the relaxation of the three restrictions to the bottom of sales, all the first-tier cities bottomed out before the relaxation, while the second-tier cities were more divided, mainly in 3-6 months, and it took 6 months in the whole country. In other words, the time lag from policy relaxation to sales bottoming out in major second-tier cities is concentrated in 3-6 months, and about 4-6 months at the national level.

The current round of local "four limits" relaxation focuses on 2022M3-M5, and the central bank's "515 New deal" lowered the lower limit of first-home interest rates. Combined with the current real estate market environment and taking into account the base factors of 2021, it is expected that the inflection point of national commercial housing sales in 2022 may occur from August to October.

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The translation is provided by third-party software.


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