Core viewpoints
Event: the company expects to add 12000 tons of carbon-coated aluminum foil / copper foil production capacity in 2022.
Accelerate the layout of carbon-coated aluminum foil business: the company acquired Foshan at the end of last year to greatly cut into the field of carbon-coated aluminum foil, the main material of lithium battery fluid collector, and recently disclosed in investor research that 12 new carbon-coated aluminum foil / copper foil production lines will be added in 2022, corresponding to an increase of 12000 tons of carbon-coated aluminum foil / copper foil production capacity. The company's main customers of carbon-coated aluminum foil are Nandu Power supply, Zhongtian Technology, Shuangdeng Group, Penghui Energy and other domestic mainstream energy storage and power battery manufacturers. The installed production line is in the trial production stage, while speeding up the commissioning speed of the new production line. Match customer demand and increase market share In the future, while the company's carbon-coated aluminum foil business fully benefits from the performance increment brought by the general trend of new energy vehicles and energy storage, it is expected to further develop to the upstream aluminum foil industry, realize the integration of the industrial chain, and strengthen the service and supply capacity of the head new energy battery manufacturers.
The supply and demand of functional coated film is expected to improve synchronously in the future: focusing on the integrated strategy of "adhesive film material + application", the company has ploughed the functional coated film industry chain for nearly 20 years, maintains a domestic leading position in technical system, business model, product structure and product competitiveness, and fully competes with international manufacturers in subdivided application fields such as FFC and LED flexible circuit boards. At the same time, the new product reserve of high-tech barriers such as wafer process protective film and thermoforming process has the potential for growth. In the future, on the one hand, the company will benefit from the vigorous ecology of the downstream application market and the green process trend under the goal of "double carbon"; on the other hand, it will benefit from the opportunity of reshaping the supply chain under the domestic substitution. From a Chinese explorer of new materials for functionally coated film to a leader.
The proportion of automotive electronics business is expected to increase rapidly: driven by the pressure of energy saving and emission reduction and the demand for performance improvement of new energy vehicles, the demand for lightweight vehicles is highlighted. The company's FFC flexible flat cable has the characteristics of small size, thin thickness and good bending resistance, which can replace the traditional automotive harness. The two-dimensional growth of consumption and product technology, the business scale of automotive FFC will also continue to release. In addition, in terms of automobile protective film, the company has launched the automotive aftermarket brand-"Lyle paint protective film" and a series of sub-brands, and has established strategic cooperation with more than 20 provincial brand agents to achieve batch sales. Therefore, automotive electronics-related products are expected to become an important performance growth point of the company in the future, bringing broad growth space.
Profit forecast and investment suggestion
We forecast that the company's earnings per share in 22-24 years will be 0.72 soybean 1.05 yuan 1.49 yuan respectively (the original forecast for 22-23 years is 0.80 soybean 1.20 yuan respectively, the new carbon-coated aluminum foil business forecast, the forecast of hot melt film and pressure-sensitive adhesive film revenue and gross profit margin forecast), according to the comparable company's 22-year 42 times PE valuation, corresponding to the target price of 30.24 yuan, to maintain the buy rating.
Risk hint
Raw material price fluctuation risk, new product market expansion is not as expected, downstream demand is lower than expected, gross profit margin fluctuation risk.
