Zhitong Financial APP learned that Tianfeng Securities released a research report saying that the price of 22Q1 cement was still higher than that of the same period last year, reflecting good price coordination, but more sales losses led to a decline in profits, taking into account the approaching Meiyu season, demand may not be significantly improved. The recent intensification of price competition in some areas has triggered pessimistic expectations in the market, and cement stocks have continued to pull back, but the bank believes that the essential reason for this price war is the lack of market response caused by a larger-than-expected decline in demand, but it does not mean that the supply synergy has broken down. After the off-season, a new competition and cooperation relationship may be formed. Q3 prices may still rise rapidly in the peak season. At the same time, with the year-on-year impact of coal prices weakening, the recovery of corporate profits is more flexible. Pay attention to the opportunity of cement stock pullback.Recommend Shangfeng cement (000672.SZ), Huaxin cement (600801.SH), leading Anhui Conch Cement (600585.SH), concrete superplasticizer with better growth, outstanding leader α, first 603916.SH.

In the medium and long term, cement has entered a period of downward demand, and in the future, the industry will focus on the opportunities brought about by changes in the supply side of the industry under the goal of "double control" and "double carbon":A) the policy requires that the proportion of benchmarking capacity will exceed 30% in 2025. In the future, industry capacity of 2500T/D and below is expected to withdraw one after another, and total capacity will shrink by more than 8.6%. B) the cement industry is expected to include carbon trading in the future, carbon tax + emission reduction reform aggravates the cost pressure of small enterprises, the leading competitive advantage is highlighted, it is expected to further expand through mergers and acquisitions, the voice is enhanced, and the price center is expected to rise gradually. In the medium to long term, the cement industry as a whole may show a trend of "volume reduction and price increase". After the inclusion of carbon trading, or accelerate the moderate improvement of the supply side, the increase in leading share is expected to support performance growth. From the perspective of dividend yield and valuation, cement stocks still have a high ratio of investment performance to price.