New units have been approved and new energy projects have been connected to the grid one after another
Changyuan Power announcement disclosed: 1) Hanchuan Phase IV expansion project Unit 7 1GW was approved, with a total investment of 4.228 billion yuan; 2) Lechengshan Phase II Wind Power 21MW, Shishou Gaoling Agricultural Photovoltaic complementary 80MW was connected to the grid at the end of May. To maintain the profit forecast, it is estimated that the 22-24 net profit will be 4.71pm 1.29 billion yuan and BPS 3.86pm 4.33 yuan respectively. The average PB of thermal power / new energy power generation in 22 years is 0.99 and 1.85x (Wind consensus expectation). The company has a prominent position in thermal power in Hubei Province, and the expansion of new energy is accelerated, so it is expected to enjoy a valuation premium, giving a 22-year target 2.1xPB with a target price of 7.58 yuan (the previous value is 5.78 yuan, based on 22-year 1.6xPB) to maintain its overweight rating.
The status of thermal power in Hubei Province is remarkable, and the scale of new energy allocation is considerable.
The number of thermal power / hydropower / wind power utilization hours in Hubei Province from January to April 22 is 3% higher than that of the same period last year. Taking into account the sustained recovery of electricity demand in Hubei Province (January-May compared with the same period last year + 9%), it is expected that the rate of thermal power reduction is expected to narrow and the hydropower growth rate is expected to continue in the first half of the year. The company's 22Q1 power generation / on-line electricity is 0.93% compared with the same period last year, which is mainly affected by the decline in thermal power hours in the province. The current thermal power operation scale of the company accounts for 19% of the thermal power in the province, and the under construction / newly approved scale is 2.0/1.0GW respectively. After the company is put into production, the thermal power scale of the company will reach 9.31GW. Relying on thermal power advantage company to obtain new energy allocation 3.18GW in 21 years, ranking first in the province. The company plans to start 1.7GW and start production of 0.9GW in 22 years. According to the policy, the rest of the project is expected to start production in 2024.
With the marketization of electricity prices and the growth of new energy, medium-and long-term profitability is expected to be repaired by the sharp rise in domestic coal prices. In 21 years, the comprehensive standard coal price of thermal power plants has increased by 3040% compared with the same period last year, relying on the major shareholder National Energy Group. The company's ability to guarantee supply and control prices of thermal coal is in the lead in the region.
The company actively promotes the energy-saving transformation of thermal power units, and the coal consumption of power supply in the past 21 years has been reduced by 2.3 g / kWh compared with the same period last year.
The marketization of electricity price has gradually opened up, and the 22-year increase in the company's average feed-in price in 21 years is expected to increase significantly compared with the same period last year. Under the comprehensive influence of coal price and electricity price, the company's electricity gross profit margin in 21 years is year-on-year-12.1pp. With the stabilization of coal prices, the expansion of electricity prices and the increase in the proportion of profits from new energy power generation, we expect that the company's gross profit margin will gradually pick up in 22-24 years, which will be 10 pounds, 14 pounds and 18 percent respectively in three years.
The target price is 7.58 yuan to maintain the overweight rating.
The company's current stock price corresponds to 22-year 1.81xPB, which is much higher than the average PB of thermal power 0.99x and slightly lower than the average PB of new energy generation 1.85x (Wind consensus expectation). The company is based on the thermal power foundation in Hubei province, actively expand new energy, and the market gives optimistic expectations. The company is rich in new energy reserve projects, grid-connected scale is expected to accelerate, is expected to get a valuation premium, given 22-year 2.1xPB, the target price of 7.58 yuan per share, to maintain the overweight rating.
Risk tips: coal prices rose sharply; electricity prices adjusted sharply; new projects were put into production less than expected.