Event: on the evening of June 16, the company issued an announcement about the proposed agreement on entering the zone and foreign investment.
The company plans to build 500 million new biological materials and precision intelligence projects in Fuyang, with an annual output value of about 500 million yuan after delivery, according to the announcement, the company intends to invest 500 million in Fuyang Dongzhou New area to build new biological materials and precision intelligence projects, with a land area of about 50 mu, and intends to systematically develop high-end membrane separation technology products, high-end medical biomaterials and components, IVD reagent materials and other high-tech and high value-added new materials. After the completion of the project, there will be an annual output of 3000 sets of new biological materials and precision intelligent equipment, with an average annual output value of not less than 8.5 million yuan per mu, a corresponding output value of 500 million yuan, and a construction period of 2 years. We believe that the project will help to strengthen the in-depth layout of the company's life and health industry and further enhance the company's competitiveness.
In 2021-2030, China's cell therapy industry CAGR 53%, the general trend of domestic replacement of related medical equipment Frost Sullivan predicted that China's cell therapy market space will grow from 1.3 billion yuan in 2021 to 58.4 billion yuan in 2030, and the CAGR in 9 years will be about 53%. Under the catalysis of COVID-19 's epidemic situation, in the "Thousand County Project" County Hospital list of Comprehensive capacity Enhancement work issued by the State Health Commission in April 2022, a total of 1233 county-level hospitals will reach the medical service capacity level of tertiary hospitals by 2025. The expansion of grass-roots medical institutions will lead to the expansion of the demand for medical equipment procurement. Under the voice of import substitution of medical devices, the localization of cell therapy related equipment is imperative and has great potential.
The company actively distributes the equipment consumables of the cell therapy industry chain, and is expected to significantly benefit from the top-level bio-economic planning of the company's research on cell therapy workstations and other equipment for many years. In 2021, the company plans to issue convertible bonds to invest 300 million yuan to build a cell therapy industrialization equipment manufacturing base. The products mainly include cell preparation workstations, cell aseptic sub-assembly workstations and supporting consumables. With the promotion of the top-level bio-economic planning of the "14th five-year Plan", the company's cell preparation-related products are expected to benefit significantly.
In 2021, the company's contract liabilities will increase by 105% compared with the same period last year, and the profitability of cell workstations will grow rapidly in the medium and long term.
Under the epidemic, COVID-19 antigen self-test is promoted at the national level, and the space elasticity of NC film market is large!
In March 2022, the National Health Commission issued the Circular on issuing novel coronavirus Antigen Detection Application Program (for trial implementation).
It is formally proposed to add antigen detection as a supplement on the basis of nucleic acid detection. NC membrane is one of the core materials of COVID-19 detection kit, medium-and long-term dimensions, according to our previous report estimates, the domestic market is expected to reach 3.4 billion / year. Under the epidemic, the global supply and demand of NC membrane is tense, and the price increases greatly. As a new entrant, short-term NC film is expected to significantly boost the company's performance.
Profit forecast: NC membrane + cell workstation two-wheel drive, 2022 performance high growth certainty!
Considering that COVID-19 's epidemic may have an impact on the company's business production and delivery, we have lowered our profit forecast for 2022-2024. It is estimated that the company's net return profit for 2022-2024 will be RMB 170,000, an increase of 103%, 33%, 33% and 33%, respectively, compared with the same period last year. With the gradual release of the company's NC membrane and cell workstation product capacity, the future performance is expected to achieve NC membrane, cell workstation two-wheel drive, maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk hint
1) the competition in the NC film market worsened and the price fluctuated sharply; 2) the development of the downstream COVID-19 self-test market was not as expected.