Since 2016, live streaming has brought unprecedented prosperity to some domestic social media platforms, not onlyYY、HUYA Inc.和MOMOThe company has made a lot of money, and it has also won a number of high-income star anchors.
But the number of monthly active users in the live streaming industry fell 10.8% to 91.28 million from 104.1 million in January 2018, according to a report released by big data research institute QuestMobile. Live streaming companies are facing slowing user growth and weak profit forecasts last year.YYThe share price has soared 186.8%, but has fallen 1/3 this year.
Where did all the users who left the live broadcast go? The answer might beShort video. Video clips ranging from a few seconds to a few minutes meet the fragmentation time and more diverse needs of users. The capital market also turned, and the IPO process of Douyin and Kuaishou Technology was hotly discussed.
CNBC reported that live streaming is in decline, and short videos have replaced its social media status. is that really the case?
Short video new Wang Dangli! Douyin Kuaishou Technology goes abroad
The popularity of short videos is a global trend.
In terms of the number of active usersIn China, Douyin had more than 300 million monthly active users and more than 150 million daily active users as of June this year, while the overseas version of Tik Tok also rose sharply, with more than 500 million global monthly active users, while the more "approachable" Kuaishou Technology had more than 234 million monthly active users and about 130 million daily active users.
Overseas, Facebook Inc's Instagram announced that the number of monthly active users reached 1 billion in June, while the daily active users of Story reached 400 million this year, making it still the "big brother"; while the daily active users of Snapchat reached 188 million this year, which was approached by Douyin Kuaishou Technology.
And judging from the number of downloads,According to the data provided by the application analysis platform SensorTower, in the first half of 2018The overseas version of Tik Tok of DouyinThe Apple Inc App Store (App Store) has been downloaded more than 104 million times, which means it has overtaken Facebook Inc, YouTube and Instagram to becomeAt that time, it was the most downloaded iOS application in the world.
In the first half of 2018, Douyin ranked first in downloads in Apple Inc's store / source: SensorTower
According to a report released by venture capital firm kleiner perkins, Douyin users are very loyal, spending an average of about 52 minutes a day on Douyin, which allows Douyin to attract new users without worrying too much about losing old users.
Quarterly downloads of Tik Tok in Apple Inc Store / Source: CNBC
Tik Tok has also performed well on Android, with Tik Tok ranking first in the social software category in the past quarter, according to SensorTower.
Image source: SensorTower
Kuaishou Technology's overseas performance also has some bright spots. Since mid-March 2018, Kuaishou Technology has ranked first in terms of downloads in eight countries and regions, including Russia, Vietnam, Indonesia and Turkey, according to App Anne, an application analysis and market data company.
The old king of the broadcasting industry is dead? E-sports came to help.
Jiang Yige, an analyst at FengHe Fund, replied in an interview with CNBC that "in the past few years, all developers have tried their best to spoil users, such as takeout services, such as Weibo Corp's first 140 words, and audio software so that users no longer need to spend a lot of time reading." Short videos are just a new example of spoiling users. "
Many users who were once obsessed with live streaming now complain that it takes too much time to watch it. They believe that short videos are more in line with the needs of fragmented entertainment, but in fact, users may spend more time on short videos. But unlike watching the same anchor all the time, short videos with a variety of topics always give people the illusion that time flows faster, which is easier to obtain and more satisfying to contemporary users.
Since short videos have so many advantages, is live streaming really completely replaced? Some analysts give a negative answer, the reason is thatThe vigorous development of e-sports industry.
Jiang said, "Live platforms do face difficulties in growth. The growth of the total population of the Internet is slowing down, and they have to compete directly with short videos for users' time." He believes that the peak of the live broadcast industry is over, but the development of the game industry will boost the live broadcast industry. With the rapid development of e-sports 's industry, different types of games can attract more players and audiences. "
In China, e-sports have been listed as national official sports and gradually entered higher education; game developers such as Tencent and live platforms such as DouYu International Holdings Limited and HUYA Inc. are also gradually standardizing the market and organizing more professional e-sports competitions or alliances. The 2018 China e-sports Industry Research report jointly released by iResearch Consulting and Huashi e-sports predicts that the market will reach 13.8 billion yuan in 2019. This is also good news for the live broadcasting industry.
Tencent and e-sports support the Chinese team to win the championship at the Jakarta Asian Games / Picture Source: Weibo Corp
Viewpoint: the market peak of short videos has not yet arrived.
In the environment of tighter regulation, social media platforms have exposed many shortcomings. The content of the platform itself is so heavily regulated that just last month, tourists uploaded short videos and boasted about destroying the landscape of the National Geopark on Douyin, prompting public criticism and police intervention. This kind of video, which itself deviates from morality and law, will obviously have a great negative impact. Many parents also complain that their children are addicted to short videos, which are obviously not entirely positive role models for their children to imitate.
Under a series of regulatory measures, such as naming and criticizing, ordering rectification and reform, and requiring removal from the shelves, the short video platform, like the original live broadcast platform, has been greatly affected.
In addition, live streaming platforms share profits with content producers such as anchors by rewarding virtual gifts, while short video platforms are still trying to find more ways to monetize traffic. At present, advertising still accounts for the bulk of all online video revenue, but it is not easy for advertisers to impress young people in more than ten seconds, and they still have doubts about the effectiveness of the short video craze.
According to IHS Markit, China's short video market is expected to reach 96.2 billion yuan ($14.08 billion) by 2020. Market formalization has not yet been completed, a large number of advertisers are still testing the edge, although it is difficult to accurately predict the product cycle, but like Jiang, many analysts firmly believe that the market peak of short video has not yet arrived, and the era of short video will continue. (Wen / Shen Siyu / tr. by Phil Newell)