Edited by CICC Securities: "the impact of artificial Intelligence on economy and the comparison between China and the United States"
In the context of the global aging population and declining birth rate, economic development will increasingly rely on productivity gains. The McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) estimates on September 5, 2018.Artificial intelligence can contribute 1.2 percent to the annual growth of global GDP for at least the next decade.Artificial intelligence will bring an additional $13 trillion in global growth by 2030.
McKinsey believes that AI affects the economy mainly through three aspects: substitution, innovation and conversion costs.1) substitution effect: AI will increase the productivity of workers and reduce the demand for repetitive jobs. 2) Innovation effect: AI will give birth to new products and services. Due to competition, these new products and services will replace some of the existing products and services. 3) switching costs: in addition to the direct economic costs brought about by technological upgrading, AI will also shake the job market and be disadvantageous to practitioners whose skills have been replaced by AI.
MGI estimates that 51 per cent of China's jobs can be automated, equivalent to 394 million full-time employees, and that AI will drive about 1.3 per cent of China's economic growth in the future, higher than the world average. In addition to the increase in productivity, the rise of AI is also very likely to create new social demand, which in turn will lead to new job opportunities.
China and the United States have obvious advantages in the field of artificial intelligence, and the United States has a relatively complete system, taking the lead in everything from chips to algorithm frameworks to algorithms to applications. Technology giants promote the landing of multiple scenarios of artificial intelligence; China's Internet industry is developed, accumulating a large amount of user data, and some algorithms (such as Chinese-related semantic recognition, etc.) lead the United States. Looking ahead, China International Capital Corporation believes that China has the ability to develop faster than the United States because it has more data, engineer dividends, stronger government support and capital popularity. American investment in AI has been rationalized, which is more reflected in the fact that existing companies use AI to improve existing services and improve efficiency. )
From the perspective of the number of artificial intelligence enterprises, AI enterprises in the United States began to develop in 1991. Compared with the United States, Chinese AI enterprises started later, but the development rate was very fast. It began to grow rapidly in 2011 and entered a stable period after reaching its peak in 2015. In terms of time, the development stage of Chinese AI enterprises is 2 ~ 3 years later than that of the United States, but the overall number can already be comparable to that of the United States.
The four most critical dimensions of artificial intelligence are data, algorithm, computing power (semiconductor) and terminal demand (scenario). The United States takes the lead in all four areas, while China has an advantage in data and algorithms, relying on the rise of Internet companies. China International Capital Corporation believes that continuous R & D investment is an important guarantee for technology companies to maintain technological competitiveness. By comparing the R & D investment of major technology companies in China and the United States, it is found that American companies are significantly higher than China. Among the top 10 companies in R & D spending, only Huawei, Tencent and BABA are Chinese companies. China International Capital Corporation also noted that the top 10 R & D companies are currently actively laying out AI, and China's R & D investment is weaker than that of the United States, which is also a phenomenon that needs to be paid attention to.
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