This report is read as follows:
Relying on the world's leading improved PVD technology, with nano-nickel powder as a breakthrough, the company continues to expand to other metals and transition metal powder materials to create products, technology platform high-end metal powder materials enterprises.
Main points of investment:
Coverage for the first time, giving a "overweight" rating. It is estimated that from 2022 to 2024, EPS 1.09 + 1.57% will be realized, an increase of 19% + 45% and 26% respectively over the same period last year. The reasonable value predicted by the absolute valuation method is 25.7 billion yuan, and the target price is given to the company by combining the two valuation methods, and the "overweight" rating is given for the first time.
The world's leading nano-silicon powder preparation technology. The company mastered the improvement of PVD technology to prepare high-end nano-metal powder materials, took the lead in the application of high-end nano-silicon powder for MLCC, and quickly spilled the technology to nano-copper powder, silver powder, alloy powder, silicon powder, etc., expanding the product matrix and building a platform company. Silver powder and silver-coated copper powder are used in photovoltaic silver paste, and nano-silicon powder is the main dopant of silicon-carbon negative electrode of lithium battery. In addition, the company has accelerated the breakthrough in nano-powder classification technology, put the second generation gas classification into production, gradually mastered 100-300nm particle size classification technology, and established higher barriers in the two links of preparation and separation.
The worst of the MLCC industry is over. Nickel powder affected by the downstream boom and cost-side pressure, the worst phase of the MLCC industry has passed, consumer electronics and automotive products marginal improvement is expected to be strong, Japan and South Korea head manufacturers return to revenue growth, high-end nickel powder will be the first to benefit.
Silicon powder and silver-coated copper powder are gradually increased. Nano-silicon powder to achieve small batch sales, as sales increase, the cost will rapidly decline and form a virtuous circle to accelerate the penetration of high-end lithium batteries; we expect the market space of nano-silicon powder to reach 880 tons in 2025, and the company may gain more than 20% share.
The silver-coated copper powder has made smooth progress in the verification of cooperative manufacturers, which can greatly reduce the silver paste cost of HJT batteries; it is estimated that the demand will reach 900t and the market capacity will exceed 3 billion yuan by 2025.
Risk hint. The boom of MLCC fluctuated greatly, and the verification and release of new products were lower than expected.