Items:
As of June 15, the company invested in new energy projects with a total installed capacity of 1.2052 million kilowatts in 2022, with a total investment of 6.235 billion yuan. Among them, photovoltaic projects are 1.13 million kilowatts, wind power projects are 752 million kilowatts, of which 880000 kilowatts are self-built and 325200 kilowatts are purchased; 275200 kilowatts have been put into production, and another 930000 kilowatts are expected to be put into production by the end of 2022.
Guoxin Environmental Protection Public View: 1) the company plans to add 2.08 million kilowatts of new energy in 2022. So far, the company has invested more than 1.2 million kilowatts in the first half of the year, and will be put into production by the end of 2022, with a completion ratio of more than 50%. Considering the short construction cycle of photovoltaic projects, if the company maintains the speed of new energy construction in the first half of the year, it will successfully complete the plan to install 2.08 million kilowatts in 2022. 2) Photovoltaic projects are mainly agriculture-photovoltaic complementary and fishing-photovoltaic complementary. The investment amount of new photovoltaic projects in the first half of the year is 5.573 billion yuan, and the average investment cost per watt is 4.9yuan / watt, which is moderate compared with the complementary photovoltaic projects on the market.
The performance support in 2022 mainly depends on the production of new energy projects. considering the steady promotion of new energy projects, the company expects the installed scale of new energy to reach 4.48 million kilowatts at the end of 2022, and forecasts the company's new energy net profit of 787 million yuan in 2022. The company's net profit is 2.888 billion yuan, an increase of 23% over 2021. There is a 45% 50% premium over the company's current share price. We believe that the company's performance is expected to grow significantly, driven by water growth and a reversal in coal profits in 2022, while vigorously allocating new energy and pumped storage to maintain a "buy" rating.
Comments:
120.52 million kilowatts of new energy projects added in 2022
A total of 11 new energy projects have been added, with a total installed capacity of 1.2052 million kilowatts, of which 27.52 million kilowatts have been put into production, and the remaining 930,000 kilowatts will be put into operation by the end of the year. The new projects are mainly self-built, accounting for 73%, and the main types are agriculture-light complementary / fishing-light complementary projects with a scale of about 100,000 kilowatts.
Investment cost of agriculture-light complementary projects and fishing-light complementary projects
At present, the common scale of agriculture-light complementary and fishing-light complementary projects is mainly 100,000 kilowatts. We have counted the investment situation of the projects disclosed in the market at present. By comparison, the investment cost per watt of Hubei Energy project (4.9 yuan) is the middle level of the market.
Investment advice: maintain the profit forecast and maintain the "buy" rating. It is estimated that the company's revenue for 22-24 will be 257x291max RMB 32.8 billion, the net profit belonging to the parent company will be RMB 2.558 billion RMB, the profit growth rate will be 23% shock 24% shock 19%, and the earnings per share will be 0.44 pound 0.54 pound 0.65 yuan respectively. Through multi-angle valuation, it is concluded that the reasonable valuation range of the company is between 6.56 and 6.79 yuan, which is 45% more than the current stock price of the company. We believe that the company is expected to achieve substantial growth in performance driven by water growth and a reversal in coal profits in 2022, while vigorously allocating new energy and pumped storage to firmly maintain its "buy" rating.
Risk hint
Coal prices have risen sharply, new energy installation is not as expected, water supply is poor, macro policy changes, and so on.