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富途早报 | 美联储「喉舌」放风:本周加息75个基点不是没可能

Futu Morning Post | The Federal Reserve's “mouthpiece” goes wild: It's not impossible to raise interest rates by 75 basis points this week

富途資訊 ·  Jun 14, 2022 08:22

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Hot news

  • Why did US stocks plummet again? Fed mouthpiece: it's not impossible for the Fed to raise interest rates by 75 basis points this week

The Fed mouthpiece reported that at this week's upcoming FOMC meeting, the Fed may consider the possibility of raising the rate by 75 basis points because the May CPI data exceeded expectations. Earlier, at the Fed's regular news conference in May, Powell made it clear that interest rates could be raised by 50 basis points in the next two meetings, excluding 75 basis points for the time being, and then set the end point after raising interest rates to neutral rates. Goldman Sachs Group and JPMorgan Chase & Co recently joined the camp of raising interest rates by 75 basis points this week.

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  • "the dove has disappeared"! The market expects this week's FOMC meeting "Super Eagle"

Investors on Monday expected the Fed to hold a hawkish FOMC meeting this week as US bond yields soared and the dollar strengthened as US inflation peaked on Friday. Rob Dent, senior US analyst at Nomura Securities, said: "there are no doves in the Fed at the moment. Michael Pearce, senior US economist at Capital Economics, said that "the Fed really has no choice" but to take a hard line. Julia Coronado, a former Fed official and now president of MacroPolicy Perspectives, a research institute, agrees: "they can't send any signals of relaxation. They must show that they are willing to take all hawkish measures. "

  • Two key indicators of the New York Fed deteriorated to historical extremes

According to a monthly survey released by the New York Fed on Monday, local time, the median consumer expectation for inflation over the next 12 months rose to 6.6% in May, tied with March's data. The median forecast for spending growth for the next 12 months soared to 9%, the highest since the New York Fed tracked the data.

  • Morgan Stanley CEO estimates that the probability of recession in the United States is 50%, and the Fed is bound to act faster.

James Gorman, chief executive of Morgan Stanley, said he thought the risk of a US recession was about 50 per cent. "it is inevitable that this inflation is not temporary and the Fed is bound to act faster than they expected," Gorman said on Monday at Morgan Stanley's US financial, payments and commercial real estate conference. "there is a risk of recession. I used to think it was about 30%. Now it may be more like 50%, but not 100%. It's always good to be cautious. "

  • Nine children in the United States have died after eating defective infant formula.

According to the latest documents released by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), as many as nine children have died after eating infant formula produced by the Abbott Laboratories factory in Michigan since the beginning of 2021, seven more than the agency previously confirmed, according to a summary of Fox News and the Washington Post local time 12.

  • Libya closes almost all oil fields, crude oil recovers more than 2% decline and rises in intraday trading

Libya's oil minister says the country is reducing oil production at a rate of 1.1 million barrels a day. At one point in intraday trading on Monday, international crude oil fell about 2.5%, breaking its intraday low for nearly a week, while US stocks rose in intraday trading and rose more than 1% during the day's high.

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Review of US stocks

  • The huge shock in the US stock market continued, with all three major indexes falling more than 2%, and the Nasdaq plunging nearly 4%.

The S & P 500 hit an intraday low this year and its lowest level since March 2021. All large technology stocks fell, while hot Chinese stocks failed to continue their upward trend against the market last week.

  • Buffett's stock portfolio lost $65 billion this quarter.

It is estimated that as the United States continues to plummet, Buffett's$Berkshire-A (BRK.A.US) $Its stock portfolio has lost $65 billion so far in the second quarter, with Apple Inc, Bank of America Corporation and American Express Co among the biggest losers. So far in the second quarter, the portfolio has lost about 16% of its value, roughly the same as the s & p 500 has fallen since march 31.

  • Musk: Tesla, Inc. experienced a "very difficult quarter" and asked his employees to redouble their efforts.

Musk warned in an internal memo that supply chain problems made$Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) $It was a "very difficult quarter". He implored the workers to help Tesla, Inc. get back on track. Mr Musk said the Austin, Texas plant was increasing production, with nearly 1000 cars produced in Berlin last week and a record one-day output at its plant in Fremont, California.

  • Tesla, Inc. is considering setting up new factories in Canada, Mexico and the United States.

According to automotive news website Electrek, Tesla, Inc. CEO Elon Musk said that although the location of Tesla, Inc. 's next factory has not yet been determined, it may not be in the United States. Tesla, Inc. is considering a wider range of locations in North America, including Canada and Mexico. In addition, Musk also made it clear that Tesla, Inc. 's top priority in North America is to achieve mass production of the battery factory in Texas, which is much more important than the location of the new plant. Tesla, Inc. plans to bring the plant into mass production by the end of 2022 and announce the location of the new plant.

  • Tesla, Inc. 's German factory is recruiting 500,600 employees per month.

Joerg Steinbach, Brandenburg's regional economy minister, said Tesla, Inc. was hiring 500,600 people a month at his factory in Gruenheide, a suburb of Berlin, and was working with the State Employment Agency to recruit workers that German carmakers no longer needed. So far, Tesla, Inc. has hired between 4100 and 4500 employees in Berlin, about 10 per cent of whom are foreigners, mainly from Poland, Steinbach said. He also said that the Gruenheide plant will have a two-shift system from May 23, and the third shift will start operation by the end of this year. Tesla, Inc. CEO Musk told employees in early June that the company would cut its salaried staff by 10 per cent, but later said on Twitter that "the number of hourly workers will increase".

  • Alphabet Inc-CL C is reported to have proposed to allow competitors to place advertisements on YouTube

According to Reuters, people familiar with the matter said$Alphabet Inc-CL C-C (GOOG.US) $Alphabet, the parent company, has proposed allowing rival advertising agencies to place ads on YouTube in response to a key part of the EU antitrust investigation. The European Commission launched an investigation last year focusing on whether Youtube has gained an unfair advantage by restricting access to user data by competitors and advertisers.

  • North American auto giant calls on US Congress to abolish the ceiling of electric vehicle tax credit

$General Motors Co (GM.US) $$Ford Motor (F.US) $$STELLANTIS (STLA.US) $$Toyota Motor Corp (TM.US) $Executives at the North American branch sent a letter to Congress on Monday, calling on lawmakers to lift the cap on the number of cars entitled to the $7500 electric car tax credit, citing the higher cost of producing zero-emission cars. The chief executive of the auto giant said in the letter: "We demand that the ceiling for [carmakers] be lifted and that the sunset date be set when the electric car market is more mature. "

  • Oracle Corp's fourth quarter adjusted operating profit was $5.59 billion. Analysts expect it to be $5.4 billion.

$Oracle Corp (ORCL.US) $Fourth-quarter adjusted earnings per share were $1.54, analysts expected to be $1.38, fourth-quarter adjusted operating profit was 47%, analysts expected 46.2%, fourth-quarter adjusted revenue was $11.84 billion, analysts expected $11.66 billion, and fourth-quarter adjusted operating profit was $5.59 billion, compared with analysts' expectations of $5.4 billion.

  • Turnover of US stocks TOP20

The Prospect of Hong Kong City

  • Beishui Jiakang Meituan exceeded HK $600 million and Tencent bought more than HK $500 million

On June 13, southbound funds bought a large net HK $5.498 billion. Meituan-W, Tencent and Xiexin Technology received a net purchase of HK $633 million, HK $570 million and HK $536 million respectively. Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation ranks first in net sales, with a value of HK $184 million.

GOGOX, which will issue shares from June 14 to June 17, 2022, plans to issue 31.2 million shares, of which 10 per cent are sold in Hong Kong, 90 per cent in international sales and 15 per cent in over-allotment options. The offering price will be HK $21.50 per offer share and 200 shares per share, which is expected to be listed on June 24, 2022.

  • $clover organism-B (02197.HK) $SCB-2019 completed the first batch of subjects' vaccination in the III phase trial of heterologous COVID-19 strengthening needle.

Clover Biological-B announcement, an evaluation of clover biological candidate vaccine SCB-2019 (CpG 1018 ╱ aluminum adjuvant) as the first batch of subjects in the phase III study of COVID-19 to enhance the safety and immunogenicity of needles. The subjects were previously vaccinated with two doses of Kelaifu TM (inactivated Kexing vaccine), Comirnaty ®(Pfizer Inc mRNA vaccine) or Vaxzevria ®(AstraZeneca PLC virus vector vaccine).

Byd Company Limited announcement shows that on June 13, it spent 1.035 billion yuan to buy back 2.95 million A-shares, with a repurchase price range of 344.33 yuan to 358.58 yuan.

  • Trillions are just the beginning? CITIC values "Diwang" at 1.4 trillion

CITIC said in a research report that BYD's total market capitalization has exceeded one trillion yuan, and the company will improve its model matrix and brand positioning at a high end in the future, providing support for globalization and intelligence, and gradually opening up a new growth space for the company. According to the segment valuation method and with reference to the average valuation of the comparable company, the company's car building / power battery / holding BYD Electronic + semiconducting 9500amp 3300 / 100 billion yuan is valued respectively in 2023, and the reasonable value of the company is 1.4 trillion.

Focus today

Key words: annual rate and monthly rate of PPI in May, Oracle Corp's financial report, Coca-Cola Company's dividend

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Tuesday,Economic dataThe annual rate of PPI and monthly rate of PPI in the United States in May will be released, which should be watched by investors.

In addition, the US May NFIB small Business confidence Index will be released on the same day.

In terms of US stocks, we can focus on:

01.pngNiuniu morning reading:

Invest in companies instead of stocks.

-- Buffett

Edit / irisz

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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