Peace viewpoint:
Small nucleic acid is expected to become a subversive new mainstream therapy with great market potential. Compared with mainstream protein targeting small molecules and antibodies, small nucleic acid drugs have the advantages of fast target screening, high success rate of research and development, not easy to produce drug resistance, wider treatment field, not affected by protein properties and greatly improved long-term effectiveness. it shows the potential to replace existing treatments and fill blank indications, and the potential market is vast. It is estimated that the global sales of small nucleic acid drugs will exceed 10 billion US dollars by 2025.
The company is one of the leading enterprises in the industry, building a rich delivery technology platform. As exogenous drugs, one of the core barriers and technical difficulties of small nucleic acid drugs is the development of delivery system. With strong R & D strength, the company has developed four patent delivery platforms, among which PNP is expected to break through other organizational targeting bottlenecks and expand the scope of use of nucleic acid drugs, while GalNac, as the mainstream platform that has been verified, will further improve the company's layout in the liver field and empower the company's pipeline development. The company is currently one of the three enterprises in the world with multiple technology platforms and products entering the clinical stage, and is in a leading position in the industry.
It has a rich reserve of product pipelines and focuses on the American market. With rich platform technology and strong R & D capabilities, the company has developed at least 15 candidate products, which is not only the enterprise with the largest number of small nucleic acid drug pipelines in China, but also the most in-depth layout of tumors in the world. Small nucleic acid enterprises are in a leading position in the industry and have the advantage of differentiation. The company's current rapid progress of the pipeline is mainly STP705, a number of indications have entered the clinical stage in China and the United States, including skin squamous cell carcinoma and scar, etc., referring to the unmet clinical needs in China and the United States. As the product is gradually verified by clinical data, it can be commercialized in the future.
First coverage, "recommended" rating: we expect the company's first product to be commercialized in 2025. Based on the absolute valuation of the R & D pipeline, we value the company as a whole at HK $12.694 billion, based on the company's current share capital of 89 million shares. corresponding to the target price of HK $142.62 per share. Considering that the company has four core independent platforms, which have great extension value, and can strengthen the company's R & D pipeline, as the product continues to advance the clinical stage, the company's pipeline valuation is expected to be improved, covering for the first time and giving a "recommended" rating.
Risk hints: 1) R & D failure risk: there is a risk that progress is not as expected or even failure; 2) sales are not as expected: the company's sales ability has not been verified; 3) increased competition risk: there may be more competitive products listed to intensify competition; 4) policy risk: there is a risk of changes in industry regulatory policies.