Focus Today

1. CITIC: us stocks may continue to fluctuate sharply, so it is more difficult to achieve a sustained rebound.

2. Guosheng Securities: the current index rebounded into the deep water area, the position should be properly controlled.

3. Shanxi Securities: this round of rebound has basically come to an end, and the future market will deduce the structural market in the shock.

4. CITIC: it is expected that the growth rate of social finance will continue to pick up moderately in the coming months.

5. CITIC: sales in May are better than expected and are optimistic about investment opportunities in the automobile sector.

6. Zhongjin: the second reform of laterite nickel mine is expected to give birth to excellent enterprises with ternary integration of cobalt and nickel.

7. Citic Construction Investment: Apple Inc's industrial chain has strong performance certainty, and it is suggested to choose the low layout of the high-quality leader in the industrial chain.

8. Xiao Mo: raise the target price of Bilibili Inc.-SW to HK $195, with a rating of "neutral"
   

9. UBS: downgrade Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing's target price to HK $475, rating "buy"

10. Xiaomo: raise Byd Company Limited's target price to HK $400, rating "overweight"

11. Goldman Sachs Group: maintain Zhongsheng Group's "buy" rating, and lower the target price to HK $90

12. Macquarie: downgrade Sunny Optical Technology to "outperform the big market" and reduce the target price to HK $86.6.

13. Guoxin Securities: first given KE Holdings Inc.-W "buy" rating with a valuation range of HK $51.60-HK $60

Selected viewpoints of research and newspaper

I. Macro-market

• CITIC: us stocks may continue to fluctuate sharply, so it is more difficult to achieve a sustained rebound.

CITIC pointed out that the US CPI hit a new high in May, and energy, housing and food items were the main driving forces of the US CPI rise in May. High oil and food prices, a surge in summer travel demand and unabated housing growth could lead to high year-on-year CPI growth of around 8.5 per cent in June, and US inflation is likely to remain at its peak in the third quarter. The Fed is expected to raise interest rates in September with a higher probability of 50bps. High inflation innovation has raised market expectations for subsequent Fed tightening, as well as for distal recessions. It is expected that 10-year US bond interest rates may break through the previous high of 3.2 per cent, but the upside is limited; the subsequent US stock market may continue to fluctuate sharply, making it difficult to achieve a sustained rebound.

• Guosheng Securities: the current index rebounded into the deep water area, the position should be properly controlled.

Guosheng Securities pointed out that the current index rebound into the deep water area, with the improvement of the rebound space, the pressure accumulated above will also increase synchronously, the market volatility will also increase, the current position should be properly controlled and treated rationally and cautiously. In operation, select high-quality stocks supported by fundamentals and do not blindly catch up. Grasp the high-down switching opportunity brought about by the plate rotation.

• Shanxi Securities: this round of rebound has basically come to an end, and the future market will deduce the structural market in the shock.

Shanxi Securities pointed out that this round of stock market rebound is basically over, the marginal improvement in fundamentals and trading surface is difficult to support further upward reversal, overseas tightening expectations are expected to rise to further pressure, and the future will deduce the structural market in the shock, focusing on the following two points: first, "inflation" continues to stack industries that are expected to benefit from the logic of stable growth, including industries in the middle and upper reaches of tight supply and new infrastructure with high prosperity. Second, the "lag" to repair the consumption that is expected to improve marginally under the help of the superimposed policy.

• CITIC: it is expected that the growth rate of social finance will continue to pick up moderately in the coming months.

CITIC pointed out that supported by credit and government debt financing, China's social finance grew by 10.5% in May, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. Monetary policy continued to push financial institutions to increase credit, and there was an improvement in total credit in May, but the credit structure was still poor, with high short-term loans and bill financing for enterprises, and low medium-and long-term loans for residents and enterprises. The fiscal tax rebate has made M2 grow at the highest rate in five years, but the low growth rate of M1 may indicate that corporate funds are idle. The growth rate of social finance is expected to continue to pick up moderately in the coming months.

II. Industry plate

• CITIC: sales in May are better than expected and are optimistic about investment opportunities in the automobile sector.

CITIC pointed out that as supply chain repair and purchase tax reduction policies in places such as the Yangtze River Delta stimulate car companies to schedule production and lay out goods for terminals, industry production and sales speed up in the second two weeks of May, and both ends of supply and demand will maintain the trend of recovery. Passenger car sales are expected to climb to near double-digit growth in June and will most likely maintain double-digit growth from July to September compared with the same period last year. Benefiting from the economic recovery, the natural replenishment of residents' car purchase demand and the marginal stimulation of policies, the second half of 2022 will be a clear high β window for automobile consumption, and the profitability of the industry will also be significantly improved compared with the previous year. Parts plate we recommend to pay attention to three main lines: 1) Tesla, Inc., the new power industry chain target; 2) intelligent main line; 3) plate or subdivision track with high recognition of the leader.

• Zhongjin: the second reform of laterite nickel mine is expected to give birth to excellent enterprises with ternary integration of cobalt and nickel.

China International Capital Corporation believes that at present, driven by the tide of new energy vehicles, the second reform of laterite nickel mine is irresistible, and the industry chain of "laterite nickel ore-nickel sulfate-ternary battery" is expected to be fully opened. If the first reform of laterite nickel mine has made stainless steel giants such as Qingshan in China, then we have reason to believe that the second reform of laterite nickel mine is also expected to give birth to excellent enterprises with ternary integration of cobalt and nickel. It is suggested that attention should be paid to the target of cobalt-nickel ternary integrated layout with fast volume, strong process innovation and good cost advantage.

• Citic Construction Investment: Apple Inc's industrial chain has strong performance certainty, and it is suggested to choose the low layout of the high-quality leader in the industrial chain.

Citic Construction Investment pointed out that the product updates brought by Apple Inc's WWDC 2022 conference have consolidated Apple Inc's advantages over competitors in software ecology and hardware product performance. Apple Inc is still a leading and innovative company in the field of consumer electronics. accordingly, Apple Inc Industrial chain Company will also benefit. Although the consumer electronics market is facing greater growth pressure this year, Apple Inc's industrial chain has a strong performance certainty, and it is suggested to choose the low-level layout of the high-quality leader in the industrial chain.

III. Individual stocks

• Xiao Mo: up-regulation$Bilibili Inc.-SW (09626.HK) $The target price is HK $195 with a rating of "neutral"
  

JPMorgan Chase & Co published a research report that Baili's share price fell 15% after the first-quarter results, mainly due to investors' profit-taking after rebounding 75% in mid-March and uncertainty reflecting income growth and cost savings in the second half of the year. In the long run, the bank remains bullish on Bilibili Inc. 's platform value, as traffic grew by more than 50 per cent year-on-year in the first quarter. Raise its target price from 147 yuan to 195 Hong Kong dollars, maintaining a "neutral" rating.

The bank believes that Bilibili Inc. still needs to prove that business resumes in the second half of the year before the share price can rise further, including the launch of new games in China, such as time Hunter 3, which will be launched on June 29. the company also aims to launch three games overseas in the second quarter and accelerate advertising revenue driven by macroeconomic recovery.

• UBS: will$Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (00388.HK) $The target price was lowered to HK $475 and the rating was "bought".

UBS issued a report that the HKEx's trading volume and the number of new shares listed so far in the second quarter were lower than expected, lowering its after-tax net profit forecast for 2022-2024 by 8 per cent, lowering its target price from HK $520 to HK $475. it is expected to have an average daily turnover of between HK $135 billion and HK $186 billion in 2022-2024, as it has cut its average daily turnover by 11%. The bank maintained a positive view on HKEx's long-term prospects in terms of market expansion, acceleration and income diversification, saying that HKEx was likely to benefit from improved market sentiment, including the return of US-listed stocks to Hong Kong, increased market share of MSCIA shares, renewed IPO activity and higher local interest rates.

• Xiao Mo: up-regulation$Byd Company Limited (01211.HK) $Target price to HK $400, rating "overweight"

JPMorgan Chase & Co reported that new energy vehicles are still a bright spot for BYD, with a market penetration of 25% in May. BYD's sales so far this year have exceeded expectations, and winning battery business orders is another long-term boon. The bank raised BYD's sales forecast for new energy vehicles from 2022 to 2025 by 20% to 22%, raising its target price from HK $300 to HK $400. The bank believes that the wholesale performance of mainland cars will continue to outperform retail in the second half of this year, which means that car contract manufacturers will actively increase production, which should also benefit suppliers. The bank is optimistic about BYD.$Guangzhou Automobile Group (02238.HK) $和$NIO Inc.-SW (09866.HK) $, followed by$XPeng Inc.-W (09868.HK) $。

• Goldman Sachs Group: maintain$Zhongsheng Group (00881.HK) $"Buy" rating, target price lowered to HK $90

Goldman Sachs Group released a research report that maintained Zhongsheng Group's "buy" rating, and in the "convinced buy" list, taking into account the short-term bottleneck in the supply of high-end cars, lowered the net profit forecast for 2022-24 by 26%, 9%, 4%, compared with the average market forecast,-17%, "12%," 16%, and the target price was lowered from HK $112 to HK $90.

• Macquarie: downgrade$Sunny Optical Technology (02382.HK) $Rated to "outperform the big market" and lowered to the target price of HK $86.6

Macquarie released a research report that downgraded Sunny Optical from "neutral" to "outperform the market", mainly due to a rebound in the smartphone market in the first quarter of 2023. In addition, the 2022-24 net profit forecast was lowered by 17%, 13%, 10%, and the target price was lowered by 22% from HK $111.1 to HK $86.6.

• Guoxin Securities: the first$KE Holdings Inc.-W (02423.HK) $"Buy" rating with a valuation range of HK $51.6-60

Guoxin Securities released a research report saying that with the first KE Holdings Inc.-W "buy" rating, it is expected that the adjusted net profit for 2022-24 is 0.7x41.4 yuan (RMB, the same below), and the earnings per share is 0.02shock 1.09x1.4 yuan. combined with absolute valuation and relative valuation, it is considered that the reasonable share price range is 51.6 to 60 Hong Kong dollars, which is 22% 42% higher than the current stock price. As the largest residential service platform in China, the total transaction volume is 3.9 trillion yuan, accounting for 9.7% of the total in 2021. The three main businesses are stock housing business, new housing business and emerging business, with revenue of 319x465 / 2.3 billion yuan, accounting for 40%, 58%, and 3%.