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富途早报 | 美通胀高烧不退!华尔街巨头押注最早本周加息75个基点

Futu Morning Post | High inflation in the US will not go away! Wall Street giants are betting to raise interest rates by 75 basis points as early as this week

富途資訊 ·  Jun 13, 2022 08:16

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Hot news

  • After the inflation burst, Barclays shouted: the Fed has reason to raise interest rates by 75 basis points.

Despite expectations that US inflation would continue to "break the chart", the May CPI data shocked Wall Street, with traders putting the probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 75 basis points in July at 50 per cent. Barclays even made a startling forecast that the Fed would raise interest rates by 75 basis points at its June meeting at the earliest. In its report, it explained that the overall CPI and core CPI in May were so strong that they would tend to ignore it if it came only from soaring energy prices, but the truth is that all indicators in the May inflation report are very strong and are getting stronger and stronger.

  • Us economist: if the Fed had acted early, it could have avoided high inflation

Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic adviser to Allianz, said on the 12th local time that the current record high inflation could have been avoided if the Fed had shown humility and acted earlier after mistakenly describing the rise in inflation as "temporary". Mr Erian said that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the energy transformation and the Fed's misjudgment and lagging actions had all led to rising inflation, and that if the Fed had acted early, it would not have caused such high inflationary pressures. He predicts that in the current period of "stagflation", inflation is likely to reach 9% and risks further leading to a recession.

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  • More shocks coming? Bank of America: the US economy is in a technical recession and the bear market rebound is expected to be over

Bank of America Corporation (Bank of America) said in his latest report that the stock market is struggling to grasp some of the recent signs of improvement because investors are still uneasy about inflation and rising interest rates.Michael Hartnett, Chief Investment strategist, Bank of America"We are in a technical recession and we just don't realize it," he said. "Citing only 0.9 per cent of the Atlanta Fed's forecast for second-quarter GDP growth, he said the US economy was "a few bad data points before the recession", with data such as housing, retail inventory and consumer credit looking even bleaker.

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  • The infrastructure standard for electric vehicles in the United States is about to emerge: the full opening of charging piles, the "good medicine" for mileage anxiety?

The White House announced on Thursday that the Biden administration has proposed a new standard for electric vehicle charging networks, which is expected to be released next week. Specifically from the requirements of the bill submitted by the United States Department of Transportation, the new standards provide for charging speed, user coverage, interoperability, payment system, pricing and other aspects. Among them, charging piles cannot be used only by members-in other words, as White House officials say, charging piles will be open to all American drivers along the road in the future, regardless of location, electric vehicle brand or charging company.

Review of US stocks

  • The three major indexes of US stocks fell last Friday, while large technology stocks fell collectively.

The inflation data hit the stock market again, with the "inflation peaking" bankruptcy as CPI continued to hit more than 40-year highs in May, with all three major stock indices down more than 2.5 per cent and the Nasdaq down 3.52 per cent.

Large technology stocks fell collectively, with Amazon.Com Inc and NVIDIA Corp falling by more than 5% and Apple Inc by more than 3%. Some popular US-listed stocks strengthened against the market, with Bilibili Inc. up more than 3% and Pinduoduo up more than 2%.

  • For the first time in two years! Tesla, Inc. applied to split shares at 1:3.

$Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) $An annual proxy statement was filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), revealing that a 1:3 split was planned, while Larry Ellison, a member of the company's board of directors, did not intend to be re-elected. If the split proposal is approved, it will be Tesla, Inc. 's first split since August 30, 2020. The company said the potential split would provide greater flexibility for employees to manage equity and would also make it easier for individual investors to get shares. Tesla, Inc. shares rose nearly 2 per cent after US stock trading on Friday, boosted by the news.

  • Here comes the big stick of British regulation: deciding to conduct an antitrust investigation against Alphabet Inc-CL C and Apple Inc

On Friday, according to foreign media reports, the British Competition and Market Authority (CMA) plans to$Apple Inc (AAPL.US) $$Alphabet Inc-CL C-C (GOOG.US) $Google has launched a series of antitrust investigations into whether the two companies' browsers Safari and Chrome, Apple Inc Apple Store and Google App Store payment processes have hindered market competition.

  • Meta is said to be investigating Sandberg's use of the company's resources

According to the Wall Street Journal, citing sources,$Meta Platforms (META.US) $Lawyers are investigating outgoing executive Sandberg's use of the company's resources in recent years. The activities under review included work by Meta staff to support Sandberg's foundation and to write and promote her second book, the report said. It is reported that the investigation began at least last fall. Sandberg announced earlier this month that she would resign as chief operating officer this fall, but she will continue to serve on the Meta board.

  • A number of American food giants are planning more price increases

Us inflation unexpectedly broke in May, with food and energy as the two major "culprits", and from the latest signs, both food and energy are likely to continue to rise in the short term. On the food front, some large food suppliers and restaurant chains in the United States said they would continue to raise prices because of significant cost pressure, including the largest food company in North America.$Kraft Heinz (KHC.US) $And the restaurant chain giant.$McDonald's Corp (MCD.US) $. The largest meat processor in the United States$Tyson Foods (TSN.US) $The price of the company's beef products rose by an average of 24 per cent in the three months to April 2, while costs rose 15 per cent in the quarter due to increases in animal feed, freight and labor costs, it said.

  • Worried about shrinking consumption and intensified competition, Goldman Sachs Group downgraded Netflix Inc to "sell"

Goldman Sachs Group analyst Eric Sheridan will$Netflix Inc (NFLX.US) $The stock was downgraded from "neutral" to "sell" and its target price was lowered to $186 from $265 because of concerns about falling consumer spending and increasing competition. "We are concerned about the decline in consumer spending and the impact of increased competition on demand trends, including user growth and loss, profit margin expansion and content spending levels," Sheridan said. However, the analyst believes that Netflix Inc may usher in a positive catalyst in the next 6-12 months.

Last Friday, US stock turnover TOP20

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The Prospect of Hong Kong City

  • Last Friday, Beishui bought Tencent more than HK $800 million and sold Meituan more than HK $1.1 billion

On June 10th, southbound Capital bought a net HK $3.711 billion today. Tencent, Kuaishou Technology-W and CNOOC Limited received a net purchase of HK $841 million, HK $565 million and HK $315 million respectively. Meituan-W ranks first in net sales, with an amount of HK $1.111 billion.

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  • Yasheng Medicine-B: positive Clinical data of Bcl-2 inhibitor APG-2575 in the treatment of recurrent ╱ Refractory non-Hodgkin's Lymphoma in China

$Yasheng Pharmaceutical-B (06855.HK) $In an announcement, the company announced phase I clinical trial data on the development of a new class 1 drug, Bcl-2 selective inhibitor APG-2575, in the treatment of Chinese patients with relapsed ╱ refractory non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (r NHLs) at the 2022 annual meeting of the European Hematological Association (EHA 2022).

  • Great Wall Motor: spent 199 million Hong Kong dollars to buy back 13.074 million shares on June 10

$Great Wall Motor (02333.HK) $On June 10, 2022, 13.074 million shares were repurchased at a cost of HK $199 million at a repurchase price of HK $14.18-HK $15.50 per share.

Focus today

Key words: speech by ECB Vice President, dividend payout by Byd Company Limited and BYD Electronic

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European Central Bank Vice President Jean-Claude Guindos will give a speech at the start of a busy week, with markets watching for hints about possible future monetary policy movements in the euro zone.

On June 9, the European Central Bank announced the end of the era of quantitative easing, with plans to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in July, implying a 50 basis point increase in September, raising inflation expectations sharply while lowering economic growth forecasts for this year and next.

In terms of economic data, the UK will release a series of economic figures, including the monthly rate of GDP in April, the monthly rate of industrial output in April and the quarterly adjusted trade account in April.

Hong Kong stocks$Byd Company Limited (01211.HK) $$BYD Electronic (00285.HK) $Will pay out dividends.

01.pngNiuniu morning reading:

Invest in companies instead of stocks.

-- Buffett

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