Last week, Meituan announced the first quarter results, revenue and profits are higher than expected, but as the basic takeout business, losses continue to expand:

During the quarter, the revenue of 1P mode (platform distribution) catering delivery service was 13.5 billion yuan, but its cost was as high as 17.18 billion yuan, with a loss of 3.68 billion yuan.

The number of catering takeout transactions under 1P mode during the quarter was 2.185 billion, which can be estimated that the loss per takeout was more than 1.68yuan, compared with a loss of more than 1.67yuan per takeout in the same period last year and 1.50 yuan per takeout in the fourth quarter of last year.

Is the end point of Meituan takeout towards public utilities?How big is the profit space in the future? The team of Debang Securities analyst Zhao Weibo gives some calculations in its latest report.

If you want to improve the UE (unit economic model) of the takeout business, there are only three ways: 1) optimization of rider's cost; 2) increase of monetization rate; 3) increase of customer unit price.

The improvement of rider distribution efficiency brings 0.4-0.7 yuan / unit cost optimization space.

In terms of cost optimization of ridersThere are two influencing factors.1) the improvement of distribution efficiency; 2) the optimization of platform subsidies.

The hourly wage of rider distribution is determined by the supply and demand of the labor market, so the platform mainly reduces the average distribution cost by optimizing the average distribution time. The optimization of single average delivery time includes three links: ① pick-up / equal meal, ② road transportation, and ③ terminal delivery.

Debon Securities believes thatThe cost of the real rider is calculated, and the average cost per order is9.15元。

Without considering the influence of road transportationThe average distribution time per unit is expected to drop to23.8 minutes /单The corresponding CAGR is 2.8% in 5 years, that is, the cost optimization space in 5 years is 15.0%. Based on the cost of 9.15 CNY / unit in 2021, the optimization space is 1.4 CNY / unit.

If you consider that the distribution protection time in road transportation will be increased by 2-3 minutes per order, the corresponding cost will increase by 0.7-1.0 yuan per order.Therefore, without further considering the positive impact of the waybill on the cost, the actual space for cost optimization may be in0.4-0.7 yuan / order.

In additionThe subsidy of the platform can be regarded as an investment in potential core users and a medium-and long-term subsidy when the environment deteriorates.ROIIt may decline.When precise subsidy is not feasible, subsidy reduction plays a significant role in optimizing UE, and there may be more room for this part.

It assumes that the proportion of Meituan takeout 1P takeout orders is stable at 67% in 2017-21, and the real cost per rider is basically 9.15 yuan per unit.CorrespondenceThe average subsidy of Meituan takeout 1p in 2017-21 is about 2-2.50 yuan per unit.

At present, the average subsidy of 2-2.50 yuan per unit gives Meituan extra buffer space in addition to cost optimization. Compared with the adjustment rhythm of cost optimization, subsidy is a more flexible operation strategy.

It is very important that Meituan's goal of 1 yuan per unit in 2025 may not be fully digested by cost optimization alone under external shocks, or if it can be fully digested after 2025, subsidies can be dynamically or accurately adjusted to ensure the continuous optimization of the platform UE model.

The optimization of monetization rate mainly comes from the improvement of advertising realization rate.

Debang Securities believes that the advertising revenue of Meituan takeout, that is, the advertising expenditure of takeout merchants, generally increases with the growth of sales.As advertising has a certain scale effect, the willingness and ability of large catering brands are higher, so with the increase in the proportion of brand orders, the advertising realization rate of Meituan takeout will also be improved.

It estimates that the proportion of 3Q18-4Q21 takeout brand orders has increased from 15.2% to 31.6%, showing a general upward trend, which has led to an increase in the realization rate of advertising on the platform.In the future, the further increase in the proportion of brand orders is expected to continue to promote the platform advertising realization rate and optimize the overall takeout.UE .

If the online marketing expense rate increases to 6.5%, the corresponding Meituan takeout advertisement realization rate of 2.0%.

It assumes that brand merchants' marketing advertising expenses account for 90% of the total, and according to the target expense rate of 6.5% combined with the realization rate calculated by 2021 orders and online marketing revenue, the corresponding potential advertising realization rate can reach 2.0%.

After the diversification of diet, there is also room for improvement in the unit price of customers.

In additionThe unit price of guests increases naturally with the category structure and food prices, which is also conducive to the increase of Meituan's takeout income.

Track according to channelThe actual per capita income of merchants isAbout 20 yuan 30 yuan / order, and the actual expenditure per user includes an additional 2 yuan / 3 yuan /The distribution fee of the order (the user's share). There is a certain gap between the customer unit price and the report end which is close to 50 yuan / order. The GTV on the report side includes distribution fee, commodity discount, red packet, voucher and tableware, packing fee and meal price.

In terms of category structure, as the population moves more frequentlyNational food tastes are also more diversified, which reflects that the proportion of fast food and Chinese food in the category structure of the takeout platform has declined in recent years, while hot pot, dessert and global cuisine have increased, and this change will lead to an increase in the overall unit price of the platform.

Taking 2019 as an example, the unit prices of desserts, global delicacies and hot pot are 0.56 yuan per unit, 0.18 yuan per unit and 0.35 yuan per unit respectively. If only the pull of the above three categories is taken into account, the unit price of Meituan takeout will increase by 2.41% in 2020-20.

In addition, with the natural increase in residents' income, the requirements for food quality will also naturally increase. At the same time, catering merchants also have a natural trend of price adjustment due to cost fluctuations, even if the category structure remains unchanged. The unit price of catering guests will also rise (the increase is restricted by the decentralized pattern of the catering market).

Generally speaking, the unit price of takeout customers has a small increase every year, coupled with the optimization of monetization rate, it will lead to the increase of Meituan's takeout income.

In the medium and long term, the increase in the unit price of passengers is expected to be about 0.5-0.6 yuan per unit per year, and the corresponding annualized increase of 50 yuan per unit price is about 1% compared with the same period last year. If calculated according to the technical service rate of 6% and the target advertising realization rate of 2%, an increase of 2.5 yuan per customer unit price in 5 years can contribute 0.2 yuan / unit revenue increase.