Merck: the leader in silicone foaming agent industry.
The company was founded in 2000, the main products are silicone foam stabilizer, used as polyurethane foam stabilizer, including hard foam stabilizer and soft foam stabilizer. After 22 years of development, the company has grown into a leader in the silicone foaming agent industry. At present, it has a production capacity of about 22000 tons of silicone homogenizer and a global market share of about 1 inch 5. In recent years, with the gradual release of production capacity, the profit center of the company continues to rise, while short-term profits fluctuate with the supply and demand of the industry and the price of raw materials. In addition to the traditional main business, the company's project is a brand-new variety of organic amine catalyst for polyurethane to seek further long-term development.
The production, marketing and price of the foaming agent are expected to increase, and the profit of the main industry is expected to continue to release at the present time. We believe that the company's traditional main business has continuous production, sales and profit margin improvement expectations: 1. Polyurethane material products are relatively high-end, and the global demand growth rate of polyurethane materials in history is about twice the growth rate of GDP. In the future, the market growth of terminal polyurethane materials will continue to drive the demand growth of upstream foaming agents. 2. From 2022, the company's upstream silicone raw materials will enter a centralized production period. 22-23, the proposed new production capacity will exceed 50%, while the company's profit margin has an inverse relationship with raw materials in history. in the future, it may obviously benefit from the accelerated expansion of raw material production capacity; 3. In recent years, the company's overseas business has expanded significantly, accounting for about 40% of revenue. While the overseas market share of the company is still lower than that of the domestic market, there is still much room for permeability improvement, and the recent devaluation of the RMB exchange rate may also accelerate this process.
The fund-raising organic amine catalyst project cooperates with the main industry and aims at the high-end market, and the new growth pole company has decided to increase the investment project for 45,000 tons / year organic amine series product project (the first phase of 25,000 tons / year organic amine catalyst project). It is expected to help the company open a new growth pole: 1. Organic amine catalysts are high-end polyurethane auxiliaries, with a low localization rate, and the expected profit margin is significantly higher than that of the main industry. The company has accumulated technology in this field for many years and is expected to lead the localization of related products. 2. Catalysts and foaming agents are necessary auxiliaries for polyurethane production, so there is good customer coordination between the project and the company's traditional main business. there are natural advantages in market expansion.
Profit forecast and valuation
We predict that the company's net profit in 2022, 2023 and 2024 will be 0.89,1.15 and 170 million yuan respectively, an increase of 40.1%, 28.89% and 47.8% respectively over the same period last year, and the corresponding PE will be 18.0x, 14.0x and 9.5x respectively. Maintain the "overweight" rating.
Risk hint
The risk of declining profit margins caused by increased competition in the industry; the risk of significant fluctuations in the price of silicone raw materials; and the risk that the construction and realization of fund-raising projects are less than expected.