Light power faucet inserted energy storage wings, the first equity incentive to demonstrate the company's confidence in development. The company's main battery module and battery production business, applications include: light power (overseas E-bike/ domestic electric motorcycles, electric bicycles), portable energy storage, consumption (notebooks / clean appliances, etc.), 2021 income accounted for 55%, 6%, 27%. The company issued equity incentive in April 2022, the target income from 2022 to 2025 is 3 billion / 4.2 billion / 6 billion / 8.5 billion, and the net profit target is 200 / 300 / 400 / 600 million respectively.
Deep ploughing light power, customized advantage + large battery switching, performance growth can be expected. The income of Youth Mobile reached 1.23 billion yuan (19-21CAGR up to 67%). The main customers are overseas electric bicycle factories and domestic electric bicycle / motorcycle enterprises. 1) Industry: e-bike positioning travel + sports segment demand, quickly gain market recognition. Since 2018, European and American countries have launched Ebike subsidy policies, including purchase subsidies, tax breaks, etc., the market has exploded rapidly, and it is estimated that the sales of electric bikes in the four mainstream regions will reach about 15.27 million in 2025. 2) the company has the customized production capacity to meet the differentiated needs of customers and the supply chain capacity of the whole industry chain resources. The company has gradually introduced 21700 cylindrical cells, reducing production costs, marginal profitability, and is expected to continue to increase its share by virtue of the cost-effective advantage.
Portable energy storage develops customers and gains growth. In 2021, the company's energy storage business income of 128 million yuan, mainly for the United States, the world's third-largest brand manufacturer Goal Zero. Due to the replacement of rigid outdoor operation scenes such as diesel generators and consumption increment markets such as outdoor camping / emergency after the epidemic, the global portable energy storage market is expected to reach 11.1 billion yuan in 2021 and exceed 50 billion in 2025. Benefiting from the rapid development of the industry and the continuous expansion of new customers, the company's performance is expected to improve.
Consumer battery and battery business performance is stable. Consumer battery is the earliest business of the company, with the innovation of the downstream scene of consumer electronics, the company's performance will grow steadily. The battery business is an extension of the company's acquisition of Cade New Energy. It has continued to invest in the R & D and production of cylindrical batteries in 18650 and 21700, partly sold and partly self-supplied, with stable earnings in recent years.
We predict that the return net profit of the company from 2022 to 2024 will be 1.97pm 284max RMB 390 million, respectively, and the earnings per share will be 1.97pm 2.84max 3.90 yuan respectively. Referring to the comparable companies in the industry, we believe that the current reasonable valuation level of the company is 34 times the price-to-earnings ratio of 2022, corresponding to the target price of 66.98 yuan, giving a buy rating for the first time.
Risk hint
The risk of rising prices of raw materials, the risk that customer expansion is not as expected, the risk that the international situation affects export risk; the risk that the space growth of electric bicycle and energy storage market is less than expected; the risk that the change of assumptions affects the calculation results; the risk that price transmission is not as expected.