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通胀爆表,美国消费者信心崩了!

Inflation has exploded, and American consumer confidence has shattered!

華爾街見聞 ·  Jun 10, 2022 23:50

Source: Wall Street

Author: Liu Qian

Consumer confidence at the University of Michigan hit an all-time low in June. Consumers' short-term inflation expectations are the highest since 1981, while long-term inflation expectations have broken through the narrow range of volatility of the past few months, the highest since 2008.

Data released on Friday showThe initial consumer confidence index of the University of Michigan hit a record low of 50.2 in June.It was much lower than expected at 58.2 and well below the May final value of 58.4. In terms of sub-index, the initial value of the current situation index was 55.4, which was lower than the expected value of 62.9, and the final value of May was 63.3; the initial value of the expected index was 46.8, which was lower than the expected value of 55.3 and 55.2.

In terms of closely watched inflation expectations, the initial inflation expectation in June 1 was 5.4%, higher than the expected 5.3%, and the final value in May was 5.3%.The 5.4% figure is the highest since 1981. The initial inflation expectation for five years is 3.3%, the highest since 2008.It is higher than the narrow range of 3.1% in the past few months, with a final value of 3% in May. The five-year rise in inflation expectations means that long-term inflation expectations are loosening.

Data released on Friday on the same day showed that CPI in the United States broke its chart again in May. CPI rose 8.6 per cent in May from a year earlier, the highest since December 1981, and higher than the 8.3 per cent increase in April and expected; CPI rose 1 per cent in May from a month earlier, significantly higher than the expected 0.7 per cent and 0.3 per cent in April; core CPI rose 6 per cent in May from a year earlier, down from 6.2 per cent in April, but still higher than the expected 5.9 per cent Core CPI rose 0.6 per cent month-on-month in May, the same as in April, but higher than the 0.5 per cent expected.

Joanne Hsu, director of the Michigan consumer confidence survey, said in a statement:

Throughout the survey, consumers were strongly concerned that inflation would continue to erode their incomes, and the factors they cited were unlikely to abate any time soon. While consumer spending has so far remained strong, generally worsening sentiment could lead them to cut spending, slowing economic growth. Eighty-eight per cent of consumers expect US interest rates to rise next year, a record high.

Consumers' assessment of their personal finances has deteriorated by about 20%. Forty-six per cent of consumers attributed their negative views to inflation, up from 38 per cent in May; there has been only one survey since 1981, when the economy was already in recession. On the whole, the price of gasoline puts heavy pressure on consumers. Half of consumers spontaneously mentioned oil prices in interviews, up from 30% in may and 13% a year ago. For the ninth month in a row, most consumers spontaneously mentioned the problem of supply shortage.

People's assessment of the terms of purchase has fallen to an all-time low. All income groups are becoming increasingly pessimistic. Inflation has outpaced wage growth, causing many Americans to draw on their savings and take on more debt. As high prices reduce disposable income, which means fewer tips for non-essentials, a more significant slowdown in consumer spending has become a risk factor for the economy.

Consumer confidence will affect economic growth in the coming months. Pessimistic consumer sentiment will depress spending levels, thus affecting the economic recovery, while optimistic consumer sentiment will help the future economy.

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