Dow Technology recently announced: 1) plan to introduce strategic shareholders such as BYD and increase capital for Griffin; 2) the company and Wuhu Economic Development Zone signed an annual production capacity of 100000 tons of ternary precursor investment project.
Main points of investment
Introduce BYD's battle investment, the carbon material layout is the next city.
The company acquired Qingdao Haoxin in 2016 and entered the field of lithium conductive agent. Its core products include graphene conductive agent and carbon nanotube conductive agent. In 2021, the company shipped about 14000 tons / yoy+122%, of carbon materials, achieving a gross profit margin of 570 million yuan / yoy+253%,. In terms of market competitiveness, the company accounts for about 15% of the market share of carbon nanotube conductive agents in 2021, which is in the forefront of the industry. In terms of production capacity, the company has 25000 tons of conductive agent slurry at the end of 2021, and Jiangmen base has added 15000 tons of conductive agent slurry production capacity in 2022. At present, the powder production capacity of 1000 tons is full, and the powder self-supply rate is insufficient. The powder will be fully self-supplied in the second half of the year. In addition, the company plans 5000 tons of powder + 30, 000 tons of carbon nanotube slurry in Lanzhou base.
The introduction of BYD Investment, BYD as the world's leading power battery + car leading brand, further deeply bind major customers, and actively develop Ningde, AVIC, Yiwei and other high-quality customers, medium-and long-term capacity digestion is expected to be guaranteed. In addition, set up an employee stock ownership platform to retain core talents in the carbon material plate and straighten out long-term governance.
Increase the capacity of the precursor and lay out the boundary of negative expansion capacity.
In 2021, the company realized income of 3.78 billion yuan / yoy+104%, gross profit of about 21.9%, Guangdong Jiana Energy achieved net profit of 473 million yuan in 2021. According to the production capacity layout of the company's ternary precursor, the Anglo-German base has a production capacity of 44000 tons, Longnan base plans 100000 tons, of which 50, 000 tons of the first phase is expected to be put into production in August 2022, and Wuhu base plans 100000 tons, of which 50, 000 tons are planned for the first phase. On the whole, the company has achieved self-supply of cobalt resources, laying out 20,000 tons of high nickel matte projects in Indonesia, accelerating the integrated layout, and is expected to enhance its competitiveness in the future.
In addition, the company in Lanzhou base in the first phase layout of 70, 000 tons of graphite anode materials, including 100000 tons of graphitization processing, plans to invest about 1.9 billion yuan. Lanzhou Phase II Company plans to build 50,000 tons of silicon-carbon anode materials, including 50,000 tons of graphitization processing capacity.
In 2021, the company's capital expenditure reached 770 million yuan, and 2022Q1 reached about 300 million yuan. The company continues to increase the production capacity expansion of ternary precursors, actively layout negative materials, and expand capacity boundaries.
Optimizing governance is expected to enter the medium-and long-term upward growth channel.
By rearranging the industrial layout and optimizing the governance structure, the company uses Griffin and Wuhu Jiana as carbon material platform and lithium material platform respectively, integrates related assets, and sets up employee stock ownership in the two major platforms to retain talents. 2022Q1 realized income of 1.855 billion yuan / yoy+74%, net profit of 171 million yuan / yoy+142%, net profit of 166 million yuan / yoy+136%, corresponding to gross profit of 21.23%, net profit of 9.33%, outstanding performance.
Generally speaking, the company continues to optimize the governance structure, straighten out the logic of long-term development, actively increase the integrated layout of ternary precursors and capacity expansion, and introduce war investment to strengthen the future growth expectation of carbon nanotube business. In addition, the company is actively expanding the capacity boundary, the layout of silicon carbon and other negative materials and graphitized production capacity, and continue to move forward to the lithium material platform.
Profit forecast
It is estimated that the return net profit of 2022Universe 2023 / 2024 is 6.7Compact 8.6 / 1.08 billion Yuan, eps is 1.16Universe 1.49Universe 1.86 Yuan, corresponding PE is 19-15-12 times respectively. The company optimizes governance, taking the conductive agent + ternary precursor as the core, increasing the capacity layout, actively opening up customers, and giving the company a "recommended" rating.
Risk hint
Risk of policy fluctuation; lower-than-expected downstream demand; lower-than-expected product prices; risk of deterioration of the competition pattern; capacity expansion and digestion is not as expected.