Main points of investment
Heparin out to sea leader, performance hit bottom is about to rebound: the company has been ploughing heparin field for more than 20 years, is the global heparin raw material medicine and enoxaparin preparation leader; in addition, the company actively expand the field of macromolecular CDMO and innovative drugs, firmly promote the global vertical industrial chain integration. In the short term, the company's performance in 2021 is affected by individual markets and epidemics, coupled with the negative impact of investment income, profits are at an absolute low; with the continuous transmission of upstream prices to the downstream, overseas demand for heparin preparations resumes, and profitability is expected to recover quarter by quarter in 2022. In the long run, there is still a lot of room for Enuo preparation overseas, the CDMO production capacity will be expanded, and the III period of innovative drugs will be carried out smoothly, which will well support long-term performance growth.
Heparin API is the world's largest heparin API supplier, the impact of price increases in crude products caused by upstream classical swine fever and pig cycle is gradually alleviated, and the company continues to increase raw material inventory to cushion the cyclical impact, downstream enoxaparin sodium raw material prices are steadily rising, profitability will be restored quarter by quarter. In terms of preparations, the company has been deeply cultivated in the world's largest European market for many years, the proportion of high-priced out-of-hospital market revenue continues to increase, and has a market leading position in many countries. The company is also accelerating volume in other markets, and after entering the US market in 2021, the short-term driving force is strong, and the target of 25 million units is expected to be quickly achieved in 2022; the domestic market has five specifications of Enoch preparations through consistency, and is expected to quickly seize the domestic market through collection and acquisition in the future. In the long run, relying on the cost and quality advantages of integration, the global market share of enoxaparin preparation is expected to increase rapidly from about 18% in 2021 to 40-50% in 2025.
The demand for macromolecule CDMO is strong, and Saiwan plans to double its production capacity: the company enters the field of macromolecule and CDMO through the acquisition of Saiwan and SPL. Among them, Saiwan products include Monoclonal Antibody, Vaccine and other products, developed a total of 200 molecules, and developed the pDNA platform in 2019 to enter the CGT field; SPL mainly provides trypsin OEM production. Relying on the two major CDMO platforms, the company has a diversified customer base, with sufficient orders on hand and tight production capacity; the company plans to double Saiwan capacity to strengthen drug discovery, production and development capacity and support long-term performance growth.
A number of III phase FIC innovative drugs continue to advance, supporting long-term performance: through investment in OncoQuest, Resverlogix, Junshengtai, etc., the company has obtained more than 20 new First-in-class drug varieties, covering more than 30 indications, of which 5 indications have entered the global III phase and 18 indications have entered the global II phase. At present, Oregovomab, AR-301 and RVX-208 are ahead of clinical progress and are expected to be commercialized in the future, which is expected to provide substantial equity benefits in the next 3-5 years.
Profit forecast and investment rating: we expect total revenue from 2022 to 2024 to be 80.87,96.34 and 11.29 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 27%, 19% and 17% respectively, and net profit of 10.06 yuan, 12.64% and 1.538 billion yuan respectively, year-on-year growth rates of 318%, 26% and 22% 2022-2024 respectively. Based on the recovery of short-term interest margin of the company's raw materials, enoxaparin preparations continue to be sold overseas, and macromolecular CDMO and innovative drugs provide long-term performance support, covering for the first time and giving a "buy" rating.
Risk tips: raw material price increase risk; exchange rate fluctuation risk; heparin preparation new customer expansion is not as expected risk; policy / environmental protection risk.
