Focus Today

1. Jianyin International: the overall trend of Hong Kong stocks is expected to be bright. August-September will be an important observation window.

2. China International Capital Corporation: the key factor affecting exports is the trend of overseas economy.

3. Citic Construction Investment: the moving sale of liquor in June indicates the turning point of the boom, so it is advisable to increase the position decisively.

4. Everbright Securities: optimistic about the investment opportunities driven by two-way optimization of supply and demand in the automotive sector

5. Guotai Junan: the supply is down, the price is expected to go up, and the pig breeding plate is continuously recommended.

6. Morgan Stanley: maintain Meituan-W "overweight" rating with a target price of HK $240,000,000

7. Bank of America Securities: maintain BABA-SW "buy" rating with a target price of HK $159.00

8. CICC: maintain Sunny Optical Technology's "outperform industry" rating, with a target price of HK $168,

9. Credit Suisse: downgrade Bilibili Inc.-SW target price to HK $314, rating "outperform the market"

10. Shen Wanhongyuan: first given Li Ning Co. Ltd. 's "buy" rating, continue to be optimistic about the growth space of national brands.

11. Morgan Stanley: raise COSCO's target price to HK $4.71 and downgrade to "underweight"

Selected viewpoints of research and newspaper

I. Macro-market

• Jianyin International: the overall trend of Hong Kong stocks is expected to be bright. August-September will be an important observation window.

CCB International believes that in the first half of the year, Hong Kong stocks confirmed the valuation floor (3.15), the policy floor (3.16 Gold Stability and subsequent stable growth and stable expectations meetings) and the economic bottom (at the end of April and the beginning of May), and the second half of the year may usher in a bottom of profit (before and after the China report). Hong Kong stocks are expected to be bright in the second half of the year, and the fluctuation center will gradually rise. August-September will be an important observation window, US monetary policy will reach an important crossroads, and the July-August reporting season market will also test and confirm the bottom of Hong Kong stock earnings.

The bank expects Hong Kong stocks to generally fluctuate upward in the second half of 2022 and proposes to shift from overweight value to a balanced allocation between value stocks and growth stocks, taking into account the possibility of another style switch in the second half of the year.

• China International Capital Corporation: the key factor affecting exports is the trend of overseas economy.

China International Capital Corporation believes that the low base pushed up exports, but the higher-than-expected data mainly reflects the rush of exports after the relief of the epidemic, while the pure external demand factor may be gradually weakening. This confirms the earlier view that the impact of the epidemic on the supply side of exports is limited, and the key factor affecting exports is the trend of the overseas economy. Against the backdrop of high oil prices and accelerated monetary policy tightening in developed economies, the base rose rapidly after August, and export growth is expected to decline.

II. Industry plate

• Citic Construction Investment: the moving sale of liquor in June indicates the turning point of the boom, so it is advisable to increase the position decisively.

Citic Construction Investment Research News pointed out that the liquor market is out of the bottom shock, grasp the inflection point in June and actively layout, attach importance to high-end wine and sub-high-end leading opportunities. The toughness of liquor industry chain is significantly enhanced, and the current growth cycle is still in place. From the performance of the market during the Dragon Boat Festival, the consumption recovery signal appears. After June, as economic activities begin to climb and the catering industry chain gradually recovers, the banquet consumption scene will gradually return to normal, and moving sales are expected to improve continuously during the year, driving expectations from cold to warm, and the liquor market will shake off the bottom and repair it up. From the valuation level, at present, most spirits are at the average valuation level of the past five years. In the long run, some leading liquor enterprises have twice the space in three years under the neutral assumption. In the short term, the moving sales inflection point in June indicates the economic inflection point, and it is advisable to increase the position decisively.

• Everbright Securities: optimistic about the investment opportunities driven by two-way optimization of supply and demand in the automotive sector

Everbright Securities pointed out that the automotive industry is going through the largest and most intensive stage of positive policy support since 2015, and it is expected that the trend of policy support and two-way optimization of supply and demand or leading to low before and after high production and marketing throughout the year is more clear. 1) the elasticity of the whole vehicle is expected to be the highest at the inflection point of the industry boom, and the ASP lift of the 2022E vehicle is expected to continue. 2) spare parts, firmly optimistic about the opportunities for the upward rise of independent parts suppliers; among them, the shortage of the supply chain may further catalyze the development of domestic enterprises, be optimistic about the gradual release of the new fixed point of the core independent parts suppliers, as well as the trend of product structure improvement / market share rise.

• Guotai Junan: the supply is down, the price is expected to go up, and the pig breeding plate is continuously recommended.

Guotai Junan research newspaper pointed out that the supply is downward, the price is expected to rise, continue to recommend pig farming plate. From the May monthly report, we can find that the quantity decreases, the weight increases, the overall supply continues to decrease, and the supply pressure is expected to gradually decrease in the future, and prices are expected to fluctuate upward. Prices rose to the cash cost line in May, listed companies continue to lose profits, capacity clearing power is still there, may continue to sawtooth capacity removal in the future.

III. Individual stocks

• Big Motors: maintain$Meituan-W (03690.HK) $"overweight" rating with a target price of HK $240

Morgan Stanley released a research report that maintains Meituan's "overweight" rating with a target price of HK $240. investors are advised to look beyond short-term challenges and maintain constructive views on the long-term outlook.

The report said that management maintained a positive view of the recovery trend after the outbreak and that the core business objectives remained unchanged. The bank expects that compared with the high base in the same period last year, the order volume of the food delivery business in the second quarter of this year will be the same as the same period last year, and the unit income forecast of the delivery business will remain unchanged. At the same time, it is expected that under the subsidy control measures, the operating profit margin of the delivery business can be improved compared with the same period last year, and there may be room for further reduction in the future subsidy level.

• Bank of America Securities: maintain$BABA-SW (09988.HK) $"Buy" rating, target price of HK $159

Bank of America Securities released a research report that maintained BABA-SW "buy" rating, with a target price of HK $159. The company said that the general commodity value of the mainland market recorded a low double-digit decline in April compared with the same period last year, and supply and performance capacity began to recover in late May, and significant progress was made in early June, but it has not yet reached the normal level. The bottleneck is expected to be fully resolved within June.

The bank believes that digitization of traditional industries is still a long-term trend, and BABA should have an advantage over cloud services provided by traditional IT and equipment companies in industries that involve more data and algorithms. At the same time, the company believes that the live broadcast business is part of the BABA platform, and BABA's back-end capabilities, multi-format touch points and user insight are still incomparable to the video platform.

• CICC: maintain$Sunny Optical Technology (02382.HK) $"outperform industry" rating with a target price of HK $168

CICC released a research report saying that it maintained Sunny Optical's "outperform industry" rating, with a target price of HK $168, which has 43.8 per cent upside over the current share price.

According to the report, the company released data on May shipments and shipped 91 million mobile phone lenses, mainly due to customers pulling goods ahead of time in April, but the year-on-year downward trend was similar to that of the mobile phone industry as a whole; mobile phone camera modules shipped 49.542 million pieces. the bank believes that the pulling of mobile camera module products is gradually getting rid of the influence of last year's high base, and the future growth rate will gradually return to a rational level. 6.03 million pieces of car lenses have been shipped, and although the lack of cores continues, it is believed that the weakening global vehicle demand also has a short-term impact on the pulling kinetic energy; 5.26 million pieces of other optoelectronic products have been shipped, and investors are advised to pay close attention to and track the potential improvement inflection points of mobile phone product shipments between the second and third quarters.

• Credit Suisse: downgrade$Bilibili Inc.-SW (09626.HK) $The target price is HK $314, with a rating of "outperforming the market"

Credit Suisse released a rating report that Bilibili Inc. 's total revenue in the first quarter rose 30 per cent year-on-year to 5.05 billion yuan, roughly in line with expectations, based on a strong 46 per cent year-on-year increase in advertising revenue. Its gross profit margin was 16 per cent, down 3 per cent quarter-on-quarter, in line with expectations; due to higher R & D costs, the adjusted net loss was 1.66 billion yuan, down 5 per cent from market expectations. The bank said that taking into account the impact of the epidemic in the mainland, the group's profit forecast for this year was reduced by about 9%, and the target price was lowered from HK $338 to HK $314, maintaining its rating of "outperforming the market."

• Shen Wanhongyuan: the first$Li Ning Co. Ltd. (02331.HK) $"Buy" rating, continuously optimistic about the growth space of national brands

Shenwan Hongyuan released a research report that first gave Li Ning Co. Ltd. a "buy" rating, and is expected to achieve a net profit of 47x59 / 7.2 billion yuan in 2022-24. The ability of product research and development and popular style building continues to be enhanced, the channel structure and retail operation quality are constantly optimized, and market share and profitability are expected to continue to improve. The epidemic and the high base pressure eased in the second quarter, with obvious signs of improvement in fundamentals, and online sales took the lead in resuming growth, sending a clear signal of recovery. Sports track growth has strong certainty, large space, the rising trend of domestic products is irresistible, continue to be optimistic about the growth space of national brands.

• Dama: up-regulation$Cosco Haineng (01138.HK) $Target price to HK $4.71, rating downgraded to "underweight"

According to a research report released by Morgan Stanley, COSCO's target price for marine energy will be raised from HK $4.08 to HK $4.71, and the earnings forecast for this year to 2024 will be increased by 288%, 25% and 29%, mainly reflecting an increase in the freight rate forecast for refined oil products. However, due to the limited room for profit growth brought about by cargo shipping, it is considered that the recent rise in stock prices is unreasonable and the rating is downgraded to "underweight". According to the report, Cosco's shares have outperformed the industry index by 80 percentage points so far this year, believing that the market has reflected a possible turnaround in the tanker shipping market as crude oil and oil products prices rise. However, the bank expects crude oil shipments to remain in the doldrums this year, at a heavy loss level, while cargo shipping demand is likely to remain high, but Cosco does not have much business related to marine energy.