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可口可乐季报前瞻:昔日饮料霸主被抛弃,该如何自救?

Coca Cola Quarterly Report Preview: The former beverage monarch has been abandoned; how can we save ourselves?

富途资讯 ·  Apr 23, 2018 19:40  · 财报

Coca-Cola Company will release his first-quarter 2018 results before the close of trading on April 24, EST.

Looking back on 2017, Coca-Cola Company's 2017 performance was dismal, with net profit down 81 per cent from a year earlier (mainly affected by tax reform) to its lowest level in the past five years.

Layoffs and acquisitions-Coca-Cola Company keywords in the past year, they represent the plight and transformation of carbonated beverage companies, respectively.

Now, what kind of answer will Coca-Cola Company hand over in his first quarter financial report this year?The effect of diversification under market pressure is not obvious, where is the future of Coca-Cola Company? Has the Coke era come to an end?Futu Information takes you to explore.

I. analysts' expectations

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(source: Bloomberg)

According to Bloomberg, analysts predict:

Coca-Cola Company's Q1 operating income in 2018 was US $7.349 billion, down 19.5% from the same period last year.

Adjusted net profit was $1.947 billion, up 3.6% from a year earlier.

Adjusted earnings per share were $0.459, up 6.7 per cent from a year earlier.

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Rating aspectOf the 29 analysts covered by Bloomberg, 13 gave a "buy" rating; 16 gave a "hold" rating, accounting for 55.2%; no analyst gave a "sell" rating, accounting for 0%. Analysts predicted an average target price of $50.26, with Coca-Cola Company at $43.74 as of press date.

Second, the focus of the company

1、Consolidate the dominant position of carbonated drinks

  • Boost sales

Coca-Cola Company has been trying to boost sales because of weak demand in some emerging and developing markets, as well as changes in consumer preferences. The company's revenue fell over the past 11 quarters, mainly due to reduced production of beverage products, especially in sparkling drinks and structural changes.

Coca-Cola Company's income fell 20 per cent year-on-year last quarter due to the negative impact of structural projects. Acquisitions and divestitures have a negative impact on revenue of 26%.This time, Coca-Cola Company expects to have the same adverse impact on net income from acquisitions, divestitures and other structured projects.

Coca-Cola Company has been carrying out activities to boost sales of its product line. It has stepped up its transformation into a beverage company with a broad, consumer-centric brand portfolio and light-asset business model. At the same time, the company is looking for investments in new revenue platforms to increase long-term sales and profits.

  • Developed markets & emerging markets

Coca-Cola Company grew steadily in its developed markets, mainly in Europe and North America, in the last quarter, mainly due to improved enforcement, higher pricing, and improved product innovation and packaging strategies in the recently joined regions. While other emerging markets were more challenging in the first half of 2017, performance in key markets such as India, Argentina and Brazil improved as the company entered the second half of the year.

In its 2017 results, Coca-Cola Company set a 2018 forecast for sales growth of 4 per cent. Adjusted earnings per share increase by 8% to 10%

2. Save costs to drive growth

  • Light asset transformation

Coca-Cola Company has been trying to improve efficiency and profit margins in the harsh business environment. To this end, Coca-Cola Company has promoted the improvement of profit margins by reducing its strategy for capital-intensive bottling business. Although it may damage sales and profits in the short term, joining activities will lead to higher operating profit margins, lower capital expenditure and higher return on capital for long-term investment.

Despite weak earnings, Coca-Cola Company's adjusted earnings per share rose 5.4 per cent and 2 per cent respectively compared with the same period last year, which fell for nine consecutive quarters. Its adjusted gross margin expanded by 4.8% in the fourth quarter. Comparable operating margins also increased by 5.4%.

The company reclassified its low-margin bottling business and transformed it into a light capital business, which helped improve profit margins. This trend is likely to continue in the first quarter of 2018.

  • Productivity plan

The company is in the process of achieving annual savings of approximately $3.8 billion by 2019 through its productivity plan. These include global supply chain restructuring, zero-based budgeting and streamlining its operating model.

Overall, the beverage giant's revenue in the first quarter is likely to decline due to structural changes. Nevertheless, pricing benefits, cost cuts and productivity savings should be offset to some extent.

III. Prospects for the future

According to the opinions of forward-looking analysts in the Industrial Economic report: due to factors such as large-scale tax expenditure, divestiture of canning business, market for new products to be opened, and so on, Coca-Cola Company's revenue and profit scale have shrunk. Coca-Cola Company's revenue should continue to decline in the first quarter. However, in the case of the release or weakening of some factors, the rebound in performance in the three quarters after 18 years is not a small probability. The giant is still a giant, but in the exploration of transformation, it still needs to be adjusted. (editor / Yang Weiyi)

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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