Edited by Huatai: "moving forward in the midst of twists and turns, optimistic about the breakthrough of domestic leaders."
In recent years, foreign brands of industrial robots have launched into the Chinese market, and domestic brands have come under significant pressure. The share of domestic sales of industrial robots declined in 2017 for the first time since 2013. We believe that although there are twists and turns in the road of localization of industrial robots, the trend remains unchanged.
IFR estimates that the global sales of industrial robots in 2018-2020 will be US $223 billion and CAGR will be 14.6%, respectively. Compared with 2015-2017, sales CAGR increased by about 1.7 pp, and the overall growth rate of the industry increased. IFR estimates that from 2018 to 2020, the sales of industrial robots in China will be US $9.35 billion and CAGR is 22.2% respectively, accounting for 37.0%\ 39.3%\ 40.3% of the world.
HuataiTaking the average price of industrial robots in the world and China in 2018 as a reference, assuming that the annual price reduction is 5% from 2018 to 2020 (large-scale production and technological progress), it is estimated that the sales of industrial robots in China in 2017-2020 will be 17.7% and 22.6%, respectively, and the CAGR will be 28.7%, accounting for 39.7%\ 42.1%\ 43.3% of the world respectively.
Huatai believes thatFrom 2018 to 2020, the growth of China's industrial robots mainly comes from three aspects: 1) the supply of labor force of the right age continues to shrink, industrial robots replace heavy work; 2) the price of robots drops steadily, and the economy of "machine replacement" appears; 3) the penetration rate of China's industrial robots is much lower than that of developed industrial countries, and the manufacturing industry has outstanding potential for upgrading.
The market share of domestic brands fell for the first time in 2017 after four years of climbing. According to CRIA, foreign brands gained momentum in 2017, with sales up 71.9% year-on-year, much higher than domestic brands (29.7% year-on-year growth). The market share of domestic brands fell by about 5.9 pp to 26.7% in 2017 compared with the same period last year. Domestic brands continue to invest in research and development, and some breakthroughs have been achieved in core components. At the same time, non-automotive industries have broad room for improvement, relatively low barriers to entry, and are more likely to achieve localization. The establishment of domestic industry norms is beneficial to the clearing of low-end production capacity.
Huatai believes thatTwo types of domestic industrial robot companies are expected to stand out: 1) mature business model, which can integrate market, channel, sales and professional demand pain points; 2) technological strength leading type, based on R & D breakthroughs, with software and hardware advantages.
The representative enterprises in the domestic robot industry are: Xinsong, Easton, Evert, Guangzhou CNC, Xinshida, Tosda and so on. These companies have expanded in the middle and upper reaches of the robot industry chain, mastering the development technology of parts and ontology through independent research and development or acquisition, combined with the service advantages of local system integration, they already have a certain degree of competitiveness. it is expected to realize import substitution for foreign brands in the future.
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