The recession may be the most immediate "countermeasure" for sky-high gasoline prices.

The price of gasoline in the United States has soared since the end of last year. On Thursday, the national average gasoline price hit a new record of $4.715 a gallon, up nearly 60 per cent from $3.041 a gallon in the same period last year.

The White House administration has always said it will consider and may use all tools to lower gasoline prices.The problem for the Biden administration and American drivers is that there is no short-term solution to record gasoline prices day after day.

Analysts and White House insiders believeEvery tool Biden uses has its own flaws and political consequences, and every option the government is studying is unlikely to have much impact on gasoline prices.

They also say the only "solution" to record high oil prices is a recession, although that is not what US policymakers and consumers want. Now this has risen to a significant possibility, although it is not the basic scenario predicted by most analysts.

Analysts have issued repeated warnings

The government still doesn't have the real tools to significantly lower gasoline prices in the United States. Global supply is constrained and Europe is now buying more and more seaborne non-Russian crude. Since the outbreak, global refinery capacity has been reduced by millions of barrels a day, and US fuel stocks are at multi-year lows.

High oil prices are now a headache for the White House, and aides are considering a variety of measures-from restricting oil exports to relaxing environmental regulations on gasoline contentHowever, analysts believe that none of these measures will substantially reduce gasoline prices.

"We will take all possible actions to make a meaningful change," a White House official told the media. "

But he later added:

We need to understand and deal with the fact that global oil and gas prices are controlled by much more powerful forces than any individual.

People familiar with the matter told the media that every plan studied by the US government has its own complex, potential and painful political drawbacks and tradeoffs that may not even lead to a drop in gasoline prices in the end.

At the same time, investment banks and analysts warn that the likelihood of a recession in the US is rising. JPMorgan Chase & Co warned last week thatAs the Fed begins to withdraw liquidity from the system and the crisis in Russia and Ukraine makes oil prices likely to rise to $150 or even $175 a barrel, a hurricane could hit the US economy.

According to media reports, JPMorgan Chase & Co CEO Jamie Dimon (Jamie Dimon) said at a financial conference last week:

The weather is fine now, everything is fine, and everyone thinks the Fed can handle it.

But the hurricane is there, on the road, moving towards us. You'd better get ready.

However, Goldman Sachs Group saidRecession is not inevitable.

Goldman Sachs Group analyst wrote in a report on May 30th:

We believe that unless there is a new negative shock, market concerns about this year's sluggish economic activity will prove to be "overdone".

We continue to expect economic growth to slow but not fall into recession, with trade-related growth rebounding to 2.8 per cent in the second quarter and an average of 1.6 per cent over the next four quarters.

If the United States can avoid a recession and the subsequent decline in oil consumption, the government will have no tools to influence oil prices, which are the biggest determinant of gasoline price trends in the United States.

Biden bows to reality as OPEC+ increases production

Last week, OPEC+, including Russia, unexpectedly decided to accelerate monthly production in July and August, from the current 432000 b / d to 648000 b / d, a move praised by the White House.

White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said on Thursday:

We recognize the role of Saudi Arabia, as the rotating presidency of the OPEC+ and the largest oil producer, in reaching consensus among group members.

The United States will continue to use all the tools at its disposal to deal with energy price pressures.

At this time, Biden seems to have reached a "compromise" to visit Saudi Arabia and meet with Crown Prince Mohamed Ben Salman. As US gasoline prices soar to record levels, November's mid-term elections are approaching.Realistic pressure is forcing Biden to soften his position, and if the normalization of relations between the two sides is finally realized, it will be a major achievement of Biden's diplomacy in the Middle East and is expected to increase diplomatic leverage for his November mid-term elections.

Patrick De Haan, head of oil analysis at GasBuddy, a fuel-saving application, said last ThursdayWith oil prices now less than $0.25 from $5, the national average could hit $5 a gallon around June 17.

For the Biden administration, the $5 oil price will undoubtedly cause it political pain. However, the only short-term "solution" to this problem is to reduce oil demand through the recession, which is even worse for the economy, jobs and consumers.