Event
Recently, favorable policies have emerged frequently in the field of wind power generation in China, and the company's main product polyetheramine is expected to be boosted by downstream wind power demand.
On May 30, the National Development and Reform Commission and others issued the Circular on the implementation Plan for promoting the High-quality Development of New Energy in a New era, which clearly promotes the adjustment of wind power projects from approval system to record-filing system, and will speed up the examination and approval of wind power projects. On May 31, the State Administration of Taxation issued the guidelines on preferential policies of taxes and fees for supporting Green Development, proposing that the wind power value-added tax should be collected and refunded immediately. On June 1, the National Development and Reform Commission and other nine departments issued the "Renewable Energy Development Plan of the 14th five-year Plan", proposing to promote the construction of large-scale wind power photovoltaic base projects and speed up the cluster development of offshore wind power, focusing on the construction of five major offshore wind power bases such as Shandong Peninsula.
Brief comment
21Q4 still contributes to stable profits due to production restrictions and stoppage, and is expected to climb another high-rise building in 22 years.
In September 2021, under the influence of Jiangsu's power restriction and production limit policy, the subsidiary Huaian Chenhua 35900 tons / year polyether, 23,000 tons / year polyether amine, 20,000 tons / year flame retardant, 20,000 tons / year alkyl glycosides plant temporarily shut down. Affected by the Fuqiang accident in Jiangsu Province of Huaian Industrial Park in October, the production line of Huaian Chenghua using Class A raw materials was temporarily suspended, including 359,000 tons / year polyether, 23,000 tons / year polyether amine and 20,000 tons / year flame retardant plant. After being put on record by the government, some of the production lines of Huaian Chenhua resumed production in an orderly manner at the end of December 21. In the case of the suspension of core production capacity, the listed companies actively co-ordinated the deployment of inventory, carried out operations on the production line in an orderly manner, and partially released some new production capacity. The company still achieved a net profit of 32 million yuan in the fourth quarter and 1.19 billion in revenue for the whole year 21, an increase of 32.5% over the same period last year. It achieved a net profit of 155 million, an increase of 12.7% over the same period last year, and maintained positive growth for eight consecutive years since 2013, demonstrating the company's strong anti-risk ability. In 22 years of Q1, the company achieved a net profit of 41 million, an increase of 28% compared with the previous year. With the steady improvement of the company's capacity utilization efficiency and the continuous improvement in the demand for superimposed wind power terminals, the company's performance is expected to grow rapidly. Please climb to another high-rise building.
The frequent positive policies in the field of wind power will promote the rapid development of the whole industry chain. The Circular on the implementation Plan for promoting the High-quality Development of New Energy in a New era issued by the National Development and Reform Commission on May 30 clearly promotes the adjustment of wind power projects from the approval system to the record system, and will speed up the examination and approval of wind power projects. On May 31, the State Administration of Taxation issued the guidelines on preferential taxes and fees in support of Green Development, which summarized 56 preferential tax policies in support of green development, including a number of policies to promote the development of wind power and photovoltaic. Wind power value-added tax is levied and refunded, which will also promote the installation of wind power enterprises and speed up the development of the industry. On June 1, the National Development and Reform Commission and other nine departments issued the Renewable Energy Development Plan for the 14th five-year Plan, proposing to promote the construction of large-scale wind power photovoltaic base projects and speed up the development of offshore wind power clusters, focusing on the construction of five major offshore wind power bases in Shandong Peninsula, Yangtze River Delta, southern Fujian, eastern Guangdong and Beibu Gulf. In addition, Q2 wind power equipment is improved, and the bidding price is stable at the same time. With the intensive introduction of favorable policies, it is expected to boost the bidding volume of wind power and further promote the market demand and growth of upstream materials for wind power.
Benefiting from the prosperity of the wind power industry chain, the company's polyetheramine products will usher in a boom in production and marketing.
The company's polyetheramine production capacity reached 31000 tons, ranking in the forefront of domestic enterprises. The downstream industry of polyetheramine is widely distributed, including wind power, coatings and other fields.
In the wind power industry, amino-terminated polyether is used as a curing agent in epoxy resin wind power blades. With the rapid development of wind power industry and favorable policy support, the global and Chinese polyetheramine market is expected to reach 480000 tons and 168000 tons respectively by 2025, compared with an increment of 180000 tons and 77000 tons in 2021, with CAGR of 12.5% and 16.7% respectively. The market price of polyetheramine has been rising since Q4 in 21 years, and by the beginning of 22, the price of some brands has exceeded 50,000 / ton. Since Q2 in 22 years, the production, marketing and short-term demand of polyetheramine have been affected by the epidemic in the Yangtze River Delta. The low price in May was between 30,000 and 33,000 / ton. At present, as the epidemic is gradually brought under control and the demand for wind power is boosted, follow-up prices will rise, and with the recovery of the polyetheramine industry, the company's profitability is expected to further enhance.
Active layout of production capacity construction, strong endogenous growth momentum
In September 2021, Huaian Chenghua, a wholly owned subsidiary of the company, signed an agreement with Huaian Investment Promotion Bureau to invest about 600 million yuan in Jiangsu Huaian Industrial Park to build a polyether amine project with an annual capacity of 40,000 tons of polyether amine and 42000 tons of polyether. The polyetheramine project is the current 10,000-ton plant engineering scale-up and further optimization, which is conducive to saving labor costs, energy costs and reduce investment costs, and further enhance the company's core competitiveness.
Profit forecast and valuation: the company's net profit in 2022, 2023 and 2024 is expected to be 240 million yuan, 360 million yuan and 420 million yuan respectively, and the EPS is 1.12,1.67 and 1.98 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE is 14.4x, 9.7x and 8.2x respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips: project production is not as expected, downstream demand is not as expected, and so on.
