Dragon Boat Festival short holiday is over and a new week is coming. A number of major events during the holiday and the stock market and bulk performance of the peripheral markets are expected to have a certain impact on the domestic market this week.

Six major events during the holidays

1. Beijing's home and office area is adjusted to work normally.

At present, except for a few districts in Beijing, there are no social cases in other districts for more than seven consecutive days, and the prevention and control of the epidemic has achieved phased results, and the good situation continues to consolidate. Since June 6, except for the whole Fengtai District and some areas of Changping District, catering business units have opened restaurant service; on the basis of senior high school students returning to school in advance to prepare for the exam, other primary and secondary school students return to school on June 13, and kindergarten children return to school on June 20; express delivery and takeout service personnel can enter the community (village).

Adjust the home and office area to normal work. Public transport such as buses, subways and taxis operate normally, strengthen the construction of public transport epidemic prevention system, and gradually promote the examination of nucleic acid negative certificates in public transportation and subway within 72 hours.

2. A number of banks have increased their lending.

With the intensive policy of stabilizing growth and helping to stabilize the economic market, a number of banks and financial institutions in Shanghai are rapidly implementing relevant policy requirements and intensive actions. According to industry insiders, a number of banks will increase the allocation of credit as the top priority of their current and annual business work, and will clearly increase the supply of credit to small and medium-sized enterprises, effectively reduce the financing costs of enterprises, and protect the financing needs of enterprises.

3. Local governments should increase support for automobile consumption.

After the state introduced tax concessions for the purchase of passenger vehicles and new energy vehicles going to the countryside to promote automobile consumption, various local policies have also been introduced intensively. By means of issuing car consumption coupons, lottery lottery, and so on, "real money and silver" has increased the intensity of automobile consumption. Subsidy forms include direct purchase of new cars, trade-in for new cars, motor vehicles for cars, and so on.

For example, in addition to providing car purchase subsidies at the city level, various districts under the jurisdiction of Shenzhen have also introduced a number of preferential car purchase subsidies. According to a report by Haitong International, without taking into account the "trade-in" policies in Guangdong and Shenzhen, it is estimated that subsidies for car purchases at the provincial level are about 270 million yuan, those at the municipal level are about 930 million yuan, and those at the district level are about 480 million yuan. The total amount of subsidies released is about 1.7 billion yuan.

4. The European Union promotes the sixth round of sanctions against Russia, and the international oil price has a high fever.

After weeks of discussion and consultation, the European Union recently promoted the sixth round of sanctions against Russia, and the "partial oil ban" further pushed up international oil prices.

Industry analysis, OPEC has been insufficient willingness to increase production, although the increase exceeded market expectations, but still unable to fill the "partial oil ban" caused by the global crude oil supply gap.

5. Non-farm payrolls in the United States grew moderately in May, and it is a foregone conclusion that the Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates.

On Friday (June 3), the U.S. Department of Labor released its May non-farm payrolls report. The report showed that the United States added 390000 non-farm jobs in May, better than the 325000 expected by the market. It shows that the US job market is still growing moderately despite concerns about an economic slowdown and soaring inflation.

Analysts believe that the U. S. employment report in May showed that employment continued to grow and labor force participation rate increased. This combined performance should convince the Fed that it can continue to raise interest rates ahead of 50 basis points to reach neutral rates.

6. Will Tesla, Inc. lay off staff?

Tesla, Inc. CEO Elon Musk says the company needs to lay off about 10 per cent of its workforce because it feels the economy is bad, and will suspend global hiring. Tesla, Inc. employed 99290 people worldwide at the end of 2021, according to its annual financial statements filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in February. This means that the number of layoffs will be close to 10,000. As of last Friday, Tesla, Inc. closed down 9.22%, a big drop.

However, in response to investors' questions on Twitter on Saturday afternoon local time, Musk clarified his previous position on Tesla, Inc. 's layoffs. "the total number of Tesla, Inc. employees in the next 12 months will still increase, but the number of employees receiving fixed pay will remain the same. This is regarded by investors as a kind of "firefighting" behavior on Tesla, Inc. 's "exaggerated" market performance on Friday, releasing a kind of optimism to the outside world.

There are great differences in overseas markets.

Dragon Boat Festival short holiday is shorter, the external market is only one day more than the domestic trading, but the performance is quite different. Wind data displayLast Friday (June 3), the stock markets of European and American economies fell mainly, with Nasdaq falling the most, reaching 2.47%.Six indices, including the S & P 500, Russia's MOEX and Canada's S&P/TSX composite, fell more than 1 per cent. Only a few indices, such as Austria's ATX and Portugal's PSI, rose by less than 1 per cent.

ButThe Asia-Pacific region is better, with Nikkei 225 rising 1.27% to the top.Australia's S & P 200, Indonesia Composite Index, Korea Composite Index, FTSE Singapore Strait Index and so on all rose.

In terms of major global commoditiesWith the exception of crude oil, which continued to rise sharply by more than 2 per cent, all other commodities such as gold, silver, corn, cotton, wheat and soybeans fell, and most of them fell more than 1 per cent.

Strategic prospects for the second half of the year

Recently, a number of brokerages have issued strategic prospects for the second half of 2022 or medium-term. Some brokerages are slightly cautious, while others are relatively optimistic. China International Capital Corporation said that the internal and external environment of the market may still face certain challenges in the second half of the year, and the upside space needs more positive catalyst support. Investors are advised to seek "stability" first, and then wait for the opportunity to "enter". Citic Construction Investment believes that after the new round of policy increase, the market is expected to rise again in the third quarter, and the growth style will take the lead.

China International Capital Corporation's strategic view of A-shares in the second half of the year is to "stabilize" and then "advance".China International Capital Corporation believes that the market environment so far in 2022 is more challenging than expected at the beginning of the year. Looking forward to the second half of the year, overseas from trading "stagflation" to trading "how to get out of stagflation". The current valuation of the Chinese stock market is at a low level in the historical range, with midline value. In the second half of the year, the internal and external environment of the market may still face certain challenges, and the upside space needs more positive catalyst support. Investors are advised to seek "stability" first, and then wait for the opportunity to "enter".

The key word of Dongxing Securities' strategy prospect in the second half of the year is "make a decision and then move."Dongxing Securities said there was not much room for valuation to go up. At present, the valuation level of the major sectors is close to the level of 2019 and early 2020, and the median has not been much different from 2019 to the present, while the overall macro environment has been completely different.

The strategy of CITIC Construction Investment in the second half of the year is to lay out a low position and take the lead in growth.Citic Construction Investment believes that China's economy has bid farewell to the old real estate cycle, the new momentum is still accumulating strength, and the economy will go through a stage of adjustment and transformation. In the medium term, A shares will look like the second half of 2012 to the first half of 2014: weak aggregate growth, abundant liquidity and continuous improvement, dominant growth style, dominant small and medium-sized market style. The strongest main line of the market will be the direction in which small and medium-sized stocks are expected to support sustained growth-"booming small and medium-sized stocks".

After the short-term A-share market rebounded in the "gold pit", it still faces a series of fundamental challenges. Investors need to be patient and wait for the bargain-hunting layout. It is expected that after a new round of policy increase, the market is expected to rise again in the third quarter, and the growth style will take the lead.

The key word of Huatai strategy team's medium-term strategy is "step up, mid-stream manufacturing".Huatai said that the general trend of A shares in the second half of the year is not pessimistic. The internal lag and external expansion environment is the macro combination of the greatest pressure in the manufacturing country, and its risk premium peak appeared at the end of April. At the end of last year, A shares are expected to usher in a three-stage upward market. The first stage (May to the middle reporting season) shock rebounded to the pre-epidemic shock position in Shanghai. The second stage (reporting season to October) performance inflection point appears, into the reversal market, the third stage (after October) to release market flexibility.